Broad, Cost, War+

       Below are files - articles - about more impacts.  They are arranged in 5 major groups: Broad Impacts, Costs, Conflicts & Violence, Refugees & Disasters, Deaths.

          Month and year follow each article's name.  PDF files are so marked, after month and date, some with authors noted.  Within sections, more recent files appear above older files.

Broad Impacts

New Climate Change Report Highlights Grave Dangers for Vietnam 1018

5 Ways Climate Change Could Alter Life in South Carolina after 2030 - 1018

Why India Needs to Worry about Climate Change 1018

In Alaska, Everyone’s Grappling with Climate Change 1018

Climate Change Will Make the Next Global Crash the Worst 1018

Climate Disasters Cause Global Economic Losses to Soar 1018

'Tipping Points' Could Exacerbate Climate Crisis, Scientists Fear 1018

The World Has Just over a Decade to Get Climate Change under Control 1018

We Have 12 Years to Limit Climate Change Catastrophe, Warns UN 1018

Charge €30 a Tonne for CO2 to Avoid Catastrophic 4°C Warming 1018

Climate Change Is a Chronic Condition 0918 - analogy to diabetes

'Apocalyptic Threat' - Dire Climate Report Raises Fears for California's Future 0818

Crops Are Dying.  Forests Are Burning.  This Summer’s Heat Wave Has Fueled Natural Disasters Around the World. 0718

What Climate Change Looks Like In 2018 - 0718

Pope Francis Has Spoken - Take Climate Change Seriously, or Earth Will Be Nothing but ‘Rubble’ and ‘Refuse’ 0718

The Guardian View on Climate Change - a Global Heat Wave 0718 - very brief overview

Global Warming in South Asia - 800 Million at Risk - World Bank 0618 - take #1 on study

Half of South Asia Living in Vulnerable Climate ‘Hotspots' - World Bank 0618 - take #2 on study

Young Will Pick Up Climate Change Bill, Advisers Warn 0618

Global Warming Cooks Up 'a Different World' over 3 Decades 0618

Risks to the US Economy from Climate Impacts in China 0518

Global Warming Will Depress Economic Growth in Trump Country 0518

2° No Longer Seen as Global Warming Guardrail 0418

Dangerous Biodiversity Decline Threatens Livelihoods, Food and Water Security 0318

Stark Differences in Climate Impacts Between 1.5 and 2°C of Warming 0318

'Collapse of Civilization Is a Near Certainty within Decades.’  - Paul Ehrlich 0318
            climate change, overpopulation, overconsumption, toxification

India Is the Country Most Vulnerable to Climate Change 0318

All of Europe’s 571 Cities Are Destined for Worse Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods 0218

Human Existence Threatened More by Extreme Weather, Not Weapons of Mass Destruction, Global Experts Warn 0118

Hurricanes and Heat Waves - Stark Signs of Climate Change ‘New Normal’ 1217

Climate Change Is Happening Faster Than Expected, and It’s More Extreme 1217

The Impact of Global Warming in the Land of Santa Claus 1217

Floods, Droughts, and India's Uncertain Climate Future 1117

The World at 3°C - What It Means for 5 Cities 1117

From Everglades to Kilimanjaro, Climate Change Is Destroying World Wonders 1117

Haiti Tops Index of Nations Worst-Hit by Extreme Weather in 2016 - 1117 - $3.16 trillion worldwide damages over 20 years

Trump Administration Releases Report Finding ‘No Convincing Alternative Explanation’ for Climate Change 1117 - take 3

Massive Government Report Says Climate Is Warming, Humans Are the Cause 1117 - take 2

Massive US Report Finds Climate Change 92-123% Manmade 1117 - take1

Climate Change to Affect 10 Million Americans by 2075, CBO Warns 1117

Climate Change Is Already Bringing Disease, Air Pollution and Heat Waves 1017

'We Will Be Toasted, Roasted and Grilled'- IMF Chief’s Climate Change Warning 1017

California’s New Normal?  Ever More Intense Heat, Fires, Droughts and Floods 1017

The Unvarnished Truth about Climate Change 0817 - Tampa, Florida’s take on 0817 draft National Climate Assessment

Draft National Climate Assessment Finds Drastic Climate Change Impact on US 0817
     “Evidence for a changing climate abounds, from the top of the atmosphere to the depths of the oceans.”
     “Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse (heat-trapping) gases, are primarily responsible for recent observed climate change….  
There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)
     “Even if humans immediately stopped emitting greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, the world would still feel at least an additional 0.5°F (0.3°C) of warming over this century, compared with today.  The projected actual rise, scientists say, will be as much as 2°C.

Fires, Droughts, Hurricanes - Link between Climate Change, Natural Disasters? 0917

2016 Weather Report - Extreme and Anything but Normal 0817

World’s Young Face $535 Trillion Bill for Climate Change 0717

The Uninhabitable Earth 0717

     This is a summary of many, many studies, across many facets of climate research.  It is based on interviews over the past several months with "the most credentialed and tenured scientists in the field, few of them inclined to alarmism and many advisers to the IPCC who nevertheless criticize its conservatism."  They "have quietly reached an apocalyptic conclusion, too: no plausible program of emissions reductions alone can prevent climate disaster.

1. Doomsday - Peering beyond Scientific Reticence
          “Fears of sea-level rise ... are barely scratching the surface of what [is] possible."
2. Heat Death - The Bahrain-ing of New York
3. The End of Food - Praying for Cornfields in the Tundra
4. Climate Plagues - What Happens When the Bubonic Ice Melts?
5. Unbreathable Air - A Rolling Death Smog That Suffocates Millions
6. The Perpetual War - The Violence Baked into Heat
7. Permanent Economic Collapse - Dismal Capitalism in a Half-Poorer World
8. Poisoned Oceans - Sulfide Burps off the Skeleton Coast
9. The Great Filter - Our Present Eeriness Cannot Last

Scientists Challenge Magazine Story about ‘Uninhabitable Earth’ 0717 - quibbles about bits of the above summary

How Climate Change Is a 'Death Sentence' in Afghanistan's Highlands 0817

California’s Economy Will Suffer Plenty from Climate Change.  At Least It’s Not Florida. 0717

Climate Change - Global Wildlife Reshuffle to Have Huge Impacts on Humanity 0317

State of the Warming Climate in 2016 - 'Truly Uncharted Territory’ 0317  broad & detailed blueprint, mostly technological, by decade of how to go carbon neutral (net-zero emissions) by 2050 and carbon-negative afterward.

Grim State of the Environment Report Warns Climate Change Impacts Could Be Irreversible 0317

Climate Change Poses Multi-Faceted Threat to Oregon, Report Says 0117

Europe Faces Droughts, Floods and Storms as Climate Change Accelerates 0117

UK’s Climate Change Risk Assessment – Heat Waves, Food Shortages, Floods 0117

How Gov. Scott Quietly Stole Florida's Future 1016 - saltwater intrusions, toxic algae blooms, cooling water too hot to make electricity, coral bleaching, sunny day flooding, Zika, dengue fever, West Nile virus, etc.

Crocodiles and Palm Trees in the Arctic?  New Report Suggests Yes. 0516 - Take 1 on study

Burning All Fossil Fuels Could Yield Global Warmth Not Seen in 65 Million Years 0516 - Take 2 on study

World Could Warm by Massive 10°C, if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0516 - Take 3 on study

Climate Change Puts 1.3 Billion People, $158 Trillion at Risk, Says World Bank 0516

Humans Damaging the Environment Faster than It Can Recover, UN Finds 0516

Food System Shock - Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization 0416

Urban Population Growth and Demand for Food Could Spark Global Unrest 0416

How Earth Itself Has Dramatically Upped the Stakes for the Paris Climate Accord 0416

Industrial Civilization on Track to Collapse of Production and Living Standards? 0416

China’s Sea Change 1215

China’s Latest Climate Change Assessment Depicts Somber Scenarios 1115

Failing Phytoplankton, Failing Oxygen - Global Warming Could Suffocate Life on Earth 1215

Indigenous Folk Worst Hit by Climate Change 1015

South Asia at Front Lines of Mounting Climate Costs - Asian Development Bank 0915

Obama Makes Urgent Appeal in Alaska for Climate Change Action 0815

Snowy Canada Endures Drought, Heat, Fires as Planet Gets Warmer 0815

Surge In ‘Danger Days’ Just around the Corner 0815

Point of No Return - Climate Change Nightmares Are Already Here 0815

Vietnam Ready to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0815

Texas Facing Major Climate Change Impacts 0715

Society Will Collapse by 2040, Due to Catastrophic Food Shortages - GSI 0615

Climate Change Could Overwhelm California, Obama Adviser Says 0515

Asia-Pacific Highly Vulnerable to Climate Change 0515

Climate Change Set to Take Major Toll on Economy, Children's Health 0515

Over-Consumption, Climate Change Threaten Food, Water Supplies - FAO 0415

China Official Warns of Huge Impact from Climate Change 0315

Earth Has Exceeded 4 of the 9 Limits for Hospitable Life 0315

Why Fresh Water Shortages Will Cause the Next Great Global Crisis 0315

Midwest Climate Future- Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115

China Vulnerable to Climate Change - 3rd National Climate Assessment 0115

Drought, Heat and Ice - 2015 Could Be Tipping Point on Climate 1214

Here's What Will Happen This Century If We Don't Act on Climate Change 1214

Numbers Show How Pollution Has Changed Earth 1214

Global Warming Could Undercut Efforts to Eradicate Poverty 1114

Green Revolution Trebles Human Burden on Planet 1114

Capping Warming at 2°C Not Enough to Avert Disaster, Experts Warn 1114

IPCC Climate Change Synthesis Report Sees Risks of Irreversible Damage 1014

25 Devastating Effects Of Climate Change 1014

Big Climate Report - Warming Is Big Risk for People 0314

Climate Impacts 'Overwhelming' – UN 0314

Climate Inaction to Be 'Catastrophe’ 0314

Wake Up to the Reality of Climate Change 0314

Warming Can Lead to Warmer Tempers, Worsening Global Security - IPCC 0314

U.N. Says Lag in Confronting Climate Woes Will Be Costly 0114

Damage to Poor Countries from Climate Change Goes Far Beyond Money 1013

Extreme Weather Can Be the Most Important Cause of Poverty 1013

Tropics to Be 1st Region to Hit a New Climate Era 1013

Canada's 'Northern Amazon' on the Brink 0613 - MacKenzie River, challenged by tar sands

Texas Models Diverse Climate Change Impacts 0413  - the great drought, groundwater loss, hurricanes

The 7 Most Alarming Effects of Climate Change on North America 0213 - wildfires, drought in Great Lakes, Northwest floods, nasty Nor'easters, hurricanes, tornados, West Nile virus

Warmest Decade Brings Record Temperatures and Weather Extremes 0213 

The Scary Truth About How Much Climate Change is Costing You 0213 - pushes seas into Norfolk streets, kills Oregon oysters, shuts Mississippi River shipping, hits agriculture and thermal power plants.  Wall Street pays attention.

Climate Change Creating a New World 0213 

Canadian Health Threatened by Dramatic Warming 0113 

Rising Temps Could Change Midwest Landscape 0113 

Southwest Faces Looming Threats from Climate Change 0113 

Climate Change in Hawaii Is Here 0113 

Climate Change Threatens the American West 1112 

Climate Change Evident Across Europe 1112 

Weather Extremes Damage Parts of US Infrastructure 0712 - rails, roads, airports, power plants & wires, water & sewers

Green Decline May Bring Irreversible Change 0612 

Plan Now for More Disasters - IPCC 0312 

UK Climate Impacts, First Report 0112 

Expect More Weather Extremes - IPCC 1111 

7 Ways Climate Change Threatens Our Health 0911 - heat waves; asthma & allergies; spread of infectious diseases; pests & diseases of forests & crops; more winter ice & snow storms; drought; food shortages

Pay Now, Pay Later - Wisconsin 0811

Nation-State Failures Grow 0211



Somalia
Chad
Afghanistan
Mali
Sudan
Yemen
Rwanda
Congo
Liberia
Haiti
etc.


Al Qaeda havens

Europe's Future Climate Impacts 0111

Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510

Global Crisis to Hit by 2030 - 0309 - food, water & energy shortages

Climate Change Point of No Return 0109 - Temperatures will stay high till after 3,000 AD.

Invasive Species Consumes 25% of Earth's Productivity 1007 - us

Rapid Climate Change Growing Likelier 1208

Climate Change Accelerating Far Beyond IPCC Forecast 1008

Global Changes from Warming 0508

US Economic Impacts of Climate Change and the Costs of Inaction - CIER 1007 - PDF, 52 pp

Cloudy with a Chance of Chaos 0106 - Fortune magazine.  Civilization developed in a period of climate stability.  We are leaving that period.  Scientific consensus on climate change is like the medical consensus on smoking.  US grain exports could vanish, property values plummet, terrorists multiply, etc.  We'll get insurance premium hell.


Costs 1

     Estimating damage costs from global warming (climate change) is difficult.  Estimated $ values cover a wide spectrum, depending on many assumptions, as well as on which effects are examined, over how long, for which geographical area, compounded by further uncertainties about how much carbon humans will emit how fast, positive feedbacks (e.g., more carbon emitted by thawing permafrost), and - most of all - what the warming effects will be for how much warming, with what kind of lags in warming.  Assumptions about adaptation by farmers are a key factor.

Climate Change to Cost US More in Economic Damage than All but One Nation 0918 - $48 / tonne of CO2 local damage in US (compare to $42 social cost of carbon under Obama), $86 in India, less elsewhere, for a total of $417 / ton.  Negative in Russia (Siberia) and some of Canada and Scandinavia, at least for a while.  This does not include potential catastrophic events, short-term costs of adaptation, biodiversity loss, or the longer-term impacts of sea level rise and ocean acidification.

Fighting Climate Change Could Boost the Global Economy by $26 Trillion 0918

Most Economic Forecasts Have a Big Blind Spot - Climate Change 0818

Amid Fires and Hurricanes, Price of Climate Change Begins to Hit Home 0818

Cost of Coastal Flooding in Europe Could Reach $1 Trillion Annually by 2100 - 0818

Toxic ‘Red Tide' Algae Bloom Is Killing Florida Wildlife and Menacing Tourism 0818

Adding Up the Cost of Climate Change in Lost Lives 0818

Poor Countries Face $168 Billion Interest Bill due to Climate Change 0718

We Are Very Likely Underestimating the Economic Risks of Climate Change 0618
     tipping points; use renewables & storage costs from several years ago, underestimate energy efficiency, omit social benefits, don’t adjust well for uncertainties and “fat tails”, need steeper damage function (e.g., 50% GNP loss for 6°C).

Reducing Warming from 2° to 1.5°C Will Save World $30 Trillion in Damages 0518

Climate Impacts of the Kinder Morgan Pipeline Could Cost Up to $8.7 Billion 0518

$306 Billion in 1 Year - US Bill for Natural Disasters Smashes Record 0118

2017 Set a Record for Losses From Natural Disasters.  It Could Get Worse. 0118

California Department of Insurance Estimates Wildfires Losses at $1.05 Billion 1017

$300 Billion Early Estimate for Climate Change Costs of Hurricanes, Fires 0917

Hidden Costs of Climate Change Running 100s of Billions a Year 0917

Texas Sees Harvey’s Damage at Up to $180 Billion 0917

Rising Temperatures Cut Economic Output 0917

Climate Change Costs India $10 Billion Every Year - Government 0817

How Extreme Could Temperatures Become in Texas? 0817

How Climate Change Impacts Congressional Districts Over Next 80 Years 0717

Climate Change in the U.S. Could Help the Rich and Hurt the Poor 0617

The Great Barrier Reef Is a Treasure Worth $42 Billion 0617

Urban ‘Heat Islands' Seen Doubling City Costs for Climate Change 0517

Ignoring the Worst Case Scenario Comes with a Hefty Price Tag 0317

During Sandy, Wetlands Averted US $625 Million in Damages 1116

World Economy Will Lose $12 Trillion unless Greenhouse Gases Are Tackled 1116

Hidden Cost of Death Is in the Air 0916 - Air pollution costs China 10% of GDP, India 8% - World Bank

Climate Change Could Cost Millennials $ Trillions in Lifetime Income 0816

Soaring Temperatures Will Make It Too Hot to Work, Cost Over $2 Trillion by 2030 - 0716

Flooding Costs Will Soar in a Warming World, Economic Analysts Say 0616

Climate Change Will Wipe $2.5 Trillion off Global Financial Assets 0416

Clean Energy Is Win-Win for the US 0316 - Clean energy will save $250 billion a year in the US, by 2030, compared to a base case heavy on fossil fuels.

As Sea Levels Rise, Economic Damage Piles Up Even Faster 0216

Farm Report - Montana to Lose Millions to Climate Change 0216

Balmy Winter Hits French Ski Workers in Wallet 1215

Climate Change Hits Australia’s Economy for $8 Billion 1115

Climate Change Could Push 100+ Million Into Extreme Poverty by 2030 - World Bank 1115

The Warmer It Gets, the More World Economy Hurts 1015

Scientists Calculate the Dramatic Economic Cost of a Warming Arctic 0915

South Asia at Front Lines of Mounting Climate Costs - Asian Development Bank 0915

Billions of Dollars of Pacific Infrastructure at Risk from Climate Change 0715

Inaction on Climate Change Would Cost Billions, Major EPA Study Finds 0615

Water Insecurity Costs Global Economy Billions a Year 0415

China Official Warns of Huge Impact from Climate Change 0315

Australia’s CSIRO Warns of '$1 Trillion' Natural Disasters Exposure 1214

Climate Change Costs to Poor Underestimated - UN 1214

Research Finds Looming $1 Trillion a Year Costs of Ocean Acidification 1014

Acid Damage to Coral Reefs Could Cost $1 Trillion 1014 - an earlier perspective on the same report as above

Health Benefits of Reducing Emissions Outweigh Costs Involved 0814

Climate Change Could Slash 8.7% from India’s GDP by 2100 - 0814

Climate Costs 'May Prove Much Higher’ 0414

Costs of Climate Change Steep, But Tough to Tally 0314

'Social Cost' of Carbon Emissions Rising, But Are Still Underestimated 0214

Costs of Natural Disasters in China Surge to $69 Billion 0214

Caribbean Climate In Crisis 0214

Climate, GDP Link in Pacific Islands 1213

Climate Change Will Pose Rising Burden on U.S. Taxpayer 1113

Global Warming Threatens Pacific Economies 1113

Warming Report Sees Violent, Sicker, Poorer Future 1113

We Need Climate-Change Risk Assessment 1013

The Cost of Climate Change 0913 - % of GNP, US emphasis

Huge Arctic Methane Belch Could Cost Us $60 Trillion 0713

Flood Insurance Changes Run Into Resistance 0713

Global Warming's Terrifying New Math 0613

Extreme Weather Caused $110 Billion in US Damages in 2012 0613

Microwave Oven Rule Shows Obama’s Climate Policies 0613  Social Cost of Carbon study is available on Overviews page.
  ($2007 per ton of CO
2 emitted)           2013 edition is on left,                                2010 edition on right.

US Weather Extremes Cost 2/3 of 2012 Global Losses 0513 - at right  

Who's Paying the Price for Global Warming? Taxpayers! 0513 

Caribbean Cost of Inaction 0513 

US Dominated Global Disaster Losses In 2012 0413

Cost of Disasters, 2012 Back to 1970 - Swiss Re 0413 - PDF, 44 pp
              excerpt below

 The above add up to about $60 billion in insured US disaster losses in 2012.  Corn Belt Drought losses not all tallied yet.

                2012 Insured losses were $US 77 billion, 3rd behind 2011 ($126 B) and 2005 (> $100 B).

Costs 2

Climate Disasters Threaten US Budget 1212

Climate Change Already Costs $1.2 Trillion a Year - DARA 1112 - press release;
                                            ($695 B from climate, rest from air pollution)

Costs of Climate Change - Executive Summary - DARA 1112 - PDF

Below, DARA’s estimated worldwide damages from climate change are in bilions of US $.

Down,= Health.  Top: Developing Nations - high & low emitters, then Developed & Other Industrial

Worsening Weather Battering Bottom Line 1012

Climate Impacts Cost $1.2 Trillion a Year 0912 - press summary of DARA report, see above

Poorer Countries’ Economies Are Harmed by Hotter Temperatures 0812

Drought Strains US Oil Production 0712

Insurers Cut Coverage with More Weather Extremes 0412

How Much It Will Cost to Save Pakistan's Economy’s Foundation 0312

Growing Losses Make Insurers Allies in the Climate Fight 1111

Services of Coral Reefs, Forests Worth Trillions 1109

Climate Change Costs Poor Over $100 Billion per Year to Adapt - World Bank 0909

Climate Change to Cost 19% of World GDP by 2030 - 0909 - PDF, 164 pp. emphasizes adaptation costs.
One of many examples is below.

Real Climate Change Costs Could Triple Early Estimates 0809

Climate Change in the US - the Prohibitive Costs of Inaction - UCS 0809

Carbon Cap & Trade Costs of Action in US - CBO 0609 - PDF, 16 pp.  $175 per Household

US Damages to Cost Over $1.9 Trillion a Year by 2100 - Ackerman & Stanton (NRDC) 0508 - PDF, 42 pp
     Water costs (esp. for agriculture and esp. in the West, mostly for desalination and recycling water) cope with drought and groundwater depletion.  Real estate losses are from sea level rise (45 inches by 2100).  Energy costs include increased cooling requirements, higher transmission 
thermal losses, and curtailed power production due to heat & drought.  Other impacts (food losses, health, etc.) not included.

US Inaction Could Cost $3.8 Trillion per Year by 2100 - 0506

$74 Trillion Cost of Climate Inaction - Watkiss 0905 - PDF, 88 pp, modeling by Chris Hope
    Estimated costs are based on FUND and PAGE Monte Carlo 
simulations.  Such simulations use many scenarios, based on multiple values (usually 2-5) for each of several (usually 5-20) key inputs. 

     The A2 scenario (see just below) is "business as usual", with high and rising CO2 concentrations.

These 3 graphs above show that expected damages are lower as emissions are lower.


     At left is William R. Cline’s 1992 estimate of damages in the US alone (his Table 3.4) from many of the same categories addressed by DARA, Ackerman & Stanton, and others.  (from The Economics of Global Warming.  Institute for International Economics, Washington DC, June 1992.  ISBN 0-88132-150-8)

     Note that the estimate is just for the US, not the world, as the DARA, Watkiss and "Climate Change to Cost 19% of World GDP by 2030 - 0909" estimates are.  Cline’s estimate is more comparable to Ackerman and Stanton’s - also for the US, but in 1990$ instead of 2006$.
     Cline’s estimated $61 billion in damages for 2.5°C warming may correspond to somewhere between the 2050 and 2075 damage estimates from Ackerman and Stanton. Thus, Cline's are a good bit lower, even though A & S examined only 4 sectors.  Cline’s estimate for those 4 sectors alone was about $60 billion in 2006$.  In retrospect, given the costs of recent US drought and hurricane damages, Cline’s estimates seem low.

Cline's $ US Damage Estimate from 1990.xls

Conflicts & Violence

Drought Puts Iraq at Risk of Jihadist Resurgence 0918

Climate Kings 0718 - descent to strongmen, as influx of refugees intensifies

Putting the Climate-Conflict Hypothesis to the Test 0618 - The failure of political systems is the primary cause of conflict and displacement of large numbers of people.  We also demonstrate that within socially and geopolitically fragile systems, climate change may potentially exacerbate the situation, particularly with regards to enforced migration.

The Military Paid for a Study on Sea Level Rise.  The Results Were Scary. 0418

     Half is about effect on US military bases, especially Pacific Islands, but also Atlantic Coast bases.

Climate Change Threatens National Security with Instability, Uncertainty, Chaos 0418

More Frequent Drought in Somalia Breeds Conflict over Fertile Land 0318

Does Climate Change Cause More War? 0218 - "Are we looking at night only under the streetlight?” effect

Iran Protests Have a Long-Simmering Factor - Climate Change 0118

7 Surprising Effects That Climate Change Will Throw Us 1117 - #4 is we will turn more violent.

Australia Faces Climate Disaster on Its Doorstep, White Paper Warns 1117

Climate Change and Water Woes Drove ISIS Recruiting in Iraq 1117

Climate Change – Catalyst for Conflict 1117
     In Africa & Middle East, 10% of economic output, 20% in tropics, is lost to sinking agricultural and labor productivity.

When Egypt’s Pharaohs Mishandled Climate Disasters.  Then the People Revolted. 1017

Climate Change Did Not Cause Syrian War 1017

How Climate Denial Threatens National Security 0717

Australia Warned It Radically Underestimated Climate Change Security Threat 0617

Climate Change Will Fuel Terrorism Recruitment 0417

Trump’s Defense Secretary Cites Climate Change as National Security Challenge 0317

When Climate Change Starts Wars 0217 - Central Asia becomes a tinder box as water is scarcer.

Who's Still Fighting Climate Change?  The U.S. Military 0217

How Climate Change in Central Asia Threatens to Spark Regional Conflict 0117

Climate Change Will Stir ‘Unimaginable' Refugee Crisis, Says Military 1216

Military Leaders Urge Trump to See Climate as a Security Threat 1116

Military View - Climate Change Erodes Our National Security.  We Should Prepare. 1016

Climate Change Is Already Destabilizing Communities Worldwide 0916

Military Experts Say Climate Change Poses 'Significant Risk' to Security 0916

Blame Global Warming for Your Bad Attitude 0916

Climate Change Increases the Risk of War 0716

What You Need to Know About the World's Water Wars 0716

Murders, Violence on Rise, as Parched Central India Battles for Water 0616

Preventing Tomorrow’s Climate Wars 0516 - long analysis of US DOD plans in Africa, Pacific, East Asia & Arctic

Food System Shock - Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization 0416

Urban Population Growth and Demand for Food Could Spark Global Unrest 0416

125-Year Mini Ice Age Linked to the Plague and Fall of Empires 0216

Climate Change and Conflict, a Perfect Storm 1115

Britain’s Prince Charles Links Syria War to Climate Change 1115

Conflict Makes Countries More Vulnerable to Climate Change 1115

How Climate Change Is Threatening Iraq’s Fragile Security 1015

How Climate Change Became a National Security Problem 1015 - highlighted in Democratic Presidential primary debate

Forget about Saving Energy.  This Is about Saving Lives. 0815

Defense Department to Congress - Global Warming Is a Security Threat Now 0715

Treat Climate Change as Seriously as National Security 0715 - take 1 on study

Global Warming May Fuel Terrorism 0715 - take 2, less detailed, more context

Drought, Expanding Deserts and ‘Food for Jihad' Drive Mali's Conflict 0415

Does Climate Change Really Cause Conflict? 0315

Seeds of War 0315

A Thirsty, Violent World 0215

The Pentagon & Climate Change - How Deniers Put National Security at Risk 0215

Climate Stresses Push Kashmir's Poor into Militancy, Pakistan Experts Warn 0115

How Climate Change Helped ISIS 1014

Retired Rear Admiral David Titley Talk Warns of Climate Change Conflicts 1114

Ground Water Depletion Driving Global Conflicts 1114

Climate Change a 'Threat Multiplier’ for Farming-Dependent Nations 1014

Climate Change Could Create More Boko Haram Extremists 1014

There’s a Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change and Violence 1014

Pentagon Signals Security Risks of Climate Change 1014

Sec Defense Hagel - Climate Change Will Challenge US Military 1014 - Hagel introduces trhe report summarized above.

Poorest People Are Being Driven to Extremist Groups 0914

Is Climate Change (Drought) Destabilizing Iraq? 0914

5 Reasons NATO Needs to Worry about Climate Change 0914

Mideast Water Wars - in Iraq, a Battle for Control of Water 0814

How Climate Change, Declining Food Sources Lead to Piracy, Poverty, Strife 0714

4-Star Warning - Generals Dub Climate Change a Security Risk 0514

Does Unusual Weather Cause More Crime? 0414

Warming Can Lead to Warmer Tempers, Worsening Global Security - IPCC 0314

Why Global Water Shortages Pose Threat of Terror and War 0214

How Climate Change is Helping Al Qaeda 1213

As Arctic Ice Melts, U.S. Military Adapts Strategy, Forces 1113

Conflicts 2

Global Warming (& Drying) Increases Violence 0813 - brief text summary of study below

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict - Hsiang 0913 - PDF, meta-analysis of 60 studies.  Graphs below tell the story.  Some come from studies further down the page, some from other studies.  Below, SD = standard deviation.

     
Rainfall changes (mostly drying) are drivers in panels D, G, H & K below, temperature for the other 8.

In the graphs below, dotted lines come at 1,000 year intervals.

2,600 years of European history below


China
 graph spans 2070 BC - 1450 AD.  Titanium count is proxy for strength of winter monsoon winds & rain.

Climate Change Poses Grave Threat to Security - British (& US) Rear Admiral(s) 0613

Climate Change Bigger Security Threat Than Oil Dependence - US Center for Naval Analyses 0613
     Military says US politicians have misguided fixation with domestic drilling.

Niger Desertification Forces Farmers into Armed Radical Groups 0613 

Could a Greener Military Prove More Powerful? 0513 

Water as Vital to National Security as Armies 0313 

Top US Admiral Calls Climate Change Top Security Threat 0313 

Rising Food Prices (Credit Climate Change) Heightened Arab Spring 0313 

Links between Conflict and Climate Change Draw UN Attention 0213 

Climate Change Threatens National Security - National Research Council, for CIA 1112 

Climate Warming Drives Conflict over Food 1012
     16,000 armed conflicts in 9 East Aftrican countries, 1990-2009.

List of Failing States 1012     2012 (2011 data), top 20 in order, from worst: Somalia, Congo (Zaire), Sudan, South Sudan*, Chad, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Haiti, Yemen, Iraq, Central African Repubic, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Pakistan, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi, Niger, Uganda

Climate Change Is Grave Threat to Security and Health 1011  - British military experts

Climate Change Threatens World Peace - UN's Steiner 0711

CIA on Security Impacts of Climate Change 0111 

Warming Can Spark Arctic Conflict in Coming Years 1010 

Climate Cycles Linked to Wars 0810 - El Niño doubles risk of civil wars across 90 tropical countries.

Climate Change Is a Catalyst for Conflict: a Global Threat Multiplier 0710 

Defense Department in US Seeks More Explicit Climate Models for Risks 0610 

Warming = Less Food = More Wars 1109
     Armed conflict in Africa 50% is more likely in unusually warm years.

Climate Is Change Threat to US 0809
     War games, intelligence studies, National Defense University, etc.

Climate Change Impacts U.S. Security - Quadrennial Defense Review 1208 

Warming & Wars Update 1108 - deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, etc.

Climate Change Threatens Security - CIA + 0608 - summary of National Intelligence Assessment, below

National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 - 0608 - PDF, 21 pp

US Climate Indifference Sparks Terrorism 0408

Age of Consequences: Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change - Center for Strategic and International Studies 1107 - PDF, 124 pp

Warming and Wars 0407 - summary of study below

National Security & Climate Change - CNA Corp. (11 retired US Generals & Admirals) 0407 - PDF, 68 pp

Abrupt Climate Change - for Pentagon 1003 - PDF, 22 pp.  Abrupt slowing of world thermohaline ocean circulation system brings abrupt temperature changes, causing food and water shortages, followed by resource wars.


Refugees & Disasters

Will Grim News on Climate Change Lead to Mass Migration and Conflict? 1018

America’s Era of Climate Mass Migration to Higher Ground Is Here 0918 - US will have 13 million refugees from south Florida.  The economies of the Southern states, plus parts of the West, will suffer disproportionately as temperatures rise.  The poorest 1/3 of counties are expected to lose up to 20% of their income, unless greenhouse gas emissions are severely curtailed.  Sea level rise and plain heat, plus crop failure, will be factors in the internal US migrations to come.

What Will Climate Change Do to the U.S.-Mexico Border? 0918 - For example, desertification of much of Honduras drives emigration to the US.  Discussion of development of fortress state along southern US border.

A Warming World Creates Desperate People 0618

Climate Change Sparked U.S. Border Migration Crisis 0618

Conflict, Climate Change Choke Efforts to Cure Poverty, Inequality - UN 0618

World Wakes Up to Climate Migration 0618

Study Hikes Puerto Rico's Hurricane Maria Death Toll to 4,645 - 0518

Welcome to the Age of Climate Migration 0218

Heat Waves - Climate Change and Immigration 0218

How Climate Change Is Triggering a Migrant Crisis in Vietnam 0118

Study Finds that Global Warming Exacerbates Refugee Crises 0118

How Climate Change Could Drive Immigration to the USA from Mexico 1217

Climate Change Will Make Europe’s Migrant Crisis Even Worse 1217

Faced with Rising Temperatures, People May Seek Asylum 1217

Climate Change Encouraged 19th Century Migration to America 1117

Climate Change ‘Will Create World's Biggest Refugee Crisis' 1117

Puerto Ricans Could Be Newest U.S. ‘Climate Refugees' 0917

Floods in India, Bangladesh and Nepal Kill 1,200, Leaving Millions Homeless 0817

Harvey’s Incredible Rains in Southeast Texas; Flood Emergency in Houston 0817

A Texas Newsroom Predicted a Disaster.  Now It’s Close to Coming True. 0817

Climate Migrants Might Reach 1 Billion by 2050 - 0817

Governments Aren't Ready for Refugees Being Displaced by Rising Seas 0817

Floods, Reef Loss and Migration - Asia's Future on a Hotter Planet 0717

Worsening Hunger Crises Stoke Global Migration 0517

World Must Aid Famine-Threatened Nigeria to Avoid ‘Mass Exodus' 0417

Australia Could Be Set to Receive New Wave of Climate Refugees 0417

Climate Change May Drive More Migration in Future, Europeans Say 0317

As Famine Looms In Somalia, Families without Food or Water Are Leaving Their Land 0217

How Climate Change Threatens Famed Amalfi Coast 0117

Heat, Hunger and War Force Africans Onto a ‘Road on Fire’ 1216

Climate Change Will Stir ‘Unimaginable' Refugee Crisis, Says Military 1216

Climate Change Is Already Destabilizing Communities Worldwide 0916

Climate Change Could Force Huge Migrations of People and Animals Living near the Equator 0616
     Suitable climates move outside the current tropics, which is 23° of latitude from the equator.  Long journeys.

Louisiana Tribe Officially Becomes America's First Climate Refugees 0216

125-Year Mini Ice Age Linked to the Plague and Fall of Empires 0216

Winston, Southern Hemisphere’s Strongest Storm on Record, Punishes Fiji 0216

Paris Climate Deal Could ‘Displace Millions of Forest Dwellers' 0216

Climate Change Disaster Is Biggest Threat to Global Economy in 2016 - Experts 0116

Half Million Die in Decade of Disasters in Asia Pacific 1015

European Migrant Crisis Is A Nightmare.  Climate Crisis Will Make It Worse. 0915

Fleeing Drought, Climate Migrants Press Zimbabwe's Fertile East 0815

Natural Disasters Forced 20 Million from Their Homes in 2014 - 0715

Pakistan Heat Wave - Death Toll over 800 in Sindh 0615

Disasters Impact Humans as Much as Tuberculosis Does – UN 0315

Climate Change Pushes India's Poorest Children into Slavery 0215

Pakistan's Coastal Villagers Retreat as Seas Gobble Land 0115

Rising Seas Could Make Florida Residents ‘Climate Refugees' Before 2100 - 1214

Typhoon-Hammered Philippines in ‘Fight for Our Survival' 1214

Should Canada Have a Plan for Climate Refugees? 1114

Trapped Populations – Hostages of Climate Change 1114

Climate-Driven Migration Increasing Disease Burden in Ethiopia 1114

Floods, Storms and Quakes Uproot 22 Million in 2013, Numbers to Rise 0914

NAS Panel Warns of Abrupt Bad-Dream Scenarios 1213

Whole World at Risk from Simultaneous Droughts, Famines, Epidemics 1213

When Poverty Quietly Morphs into Catastrophe 1013

Cyclone Forces 550,000 to Shelters in India 1013

Heat Wave and Wildfires Worsened Colorado Flooding 0913

Sahel Region Set for Rise in Climate Refugees 0813

India Floods - Rescue Efforts Intensify, as Death Toll Rises 0613

Indian Assam's Climate-Change Refugees Flee Rising Monsoon Flooding 0613

Climate Change May Be Making Children Sick 0613 - from Pakistan

Ebb and Flow in Bangladesh 0513

Biggest Natural Disasters of 2012 - 0513

Climate Change Will Make Hundreds of Millions Homeless 0513

Climate-Driven Disasters Cost Victorians (Australia) $4 Billion 0313

Climate Change Forcing Thousands in Bangladesh into Dhaka Slums 0213

Bangladesh Faces Mass Migration, Land Loss 0213

US Hit with 90% of World Climate Disaster Losses in 2012 - 0113

2012 May Rank as 2nd Most Disastrous Year for US 1112 

Climate Change Footprint in Disaster Loss Trends 1012 - by Munich Re-Insurance

Kiribati Island People to Relocate to Fiji 0312 

Warming Pushes Mexicans into US 0710

150 Million Climate Refugees by 2050 1109 

Climate Disruptions to Swamp Aid Efforts in 7 Years 0409 - Oxfam

Disasters Up 4 x in 20 Years 1207 - but earthquakes & volcanoes unchanged

Climate Refugees May Top 1 Billion 1107 - Christian Aid


Deaths

Climate Change Could Double Deaths from Wildfire Smoke 0918

Hurricane Maria’s Death Toll in Puerto Rico Rises to 2,975 - 0818

Adding Up the Cost of Climate Change in Lost Lives 0818

Rising Temperatures Linked to Increased Suicide Rates 0718

Many Killed in Forest Fires near Athens 0718

Tougher Climate Policies Could Save a Stunning 150 Million Lives 0318

Weather Disasters to Impact 2 out of 3 Europeans by 2100, Study Says 0817
     152,000 [heat] deaths a year from weather disasters in Europe by 2100, versus 3,000 a year from 1981 to 2010.

Suicides of Nearly 60,000 Indian Farmers Linked to Climate Change 0717

Food Scarcity due to Climate Change Could Cause 500,000 Deaths by 2050 - 0316

Half Million Die in Decade of Disasters in Asia Pacific 1015

How Climate Change Might Kill People 0715
      More deaths from heat outnumber fewer deaths from cold.  Increased temperature variability increases mortality.

Pakistan Heat Wave - Death Toll over 800 in Sindh 0615

Heat Wave in Pakistan's Sindh Province Leaves 120 Dead 0615

The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615

     The estimates above are from WHO, via John Holdren (see Overviews page).


     The estmates at left (a decade later) are from from DARA, November 2012, available above under Costs.  400,000 climate-related deaths in 2010 and 632,000 climate-related deaths in 2030.

Heat Wave in Pakistan's Sindh Province Leaves 120 Dead 0615

Crop-Loss Farmers Sell Their Children to Survive 0515 - farmer suicides too, from crop failures caused by drought

Extreme Heat a ‘Silent’ Killer 0414

Air Pollution Linked to 7 Million (11% of) Deaths a Year Globally 0314

Global Warming Could Kill Thousands of Australians - IPCC 1013

Air Pollution Likely to Kill More and Shorten Lives, as Climate Warms 0913 - take 1 on study

Air Pollution Worsened by Climate Change Will Be Potent Killer This Century 0913 - take 2 on study

Heat Waves Are the Deadliest Extreme Weather Event - CDC 0813

Neighborhoods (US Zip Codes) Tied to Heat-Related Deaths 0713

NW India Floods - More Than 5,700 People Presumed Dead 0713 

Heat Waves Are More Deadly For Poor, Minorities 0613  - They cannot afford air conditioning, etc.

Heat Deaths in Manhattan to Rise 0513 

10 Nations Where Climate Change Kills the Most People 1212

Lovelock (Gaia Hypothesis) Says Population to Crash to 1 Billion People by 2100, Wiping Out Most Life on Earth - 0209

India Lost the Most People to Climate Change 1208



by Gene Fry 2018