The World Coal Association shows the world's top coal producers, in order by thousands of tonnes, as China, US, India, Indonesia, Australia, Russia, South Africa, Germany, Poland, and Kazakhstan. The list of top consumers differs. Indonesia, Poland & Kazakhstan are not even on it. Data is from 2012.
Inside the War on Coal 0515.rtf - US. Note how little coal capacity is being added: in Wyoming and NW Texas. Even in Wyoming, far more new MW will come from wind than coal. The apparent coal-fired addition east of Santa Maria CA is a puzzle. A very efficient gas-fired power plant opened there in ~2012, but news of such a coal plant is not to be found.
Solar Power May Be Cheaper than Coal in India by 2020 - 1115.rtf - prices below are in Rupees (~1.5¢US): 0-16 Rupees/kWh
2 EIA coal plant retirement graphs, from about a year earlier.
Note the 37 GW increase in closings announced above, compared to below (earlier).
About the US
Age of US Coal-Fired Power Plants
Almost all the expected (as of Dec. 2010) 40-55 GW of coal-fired retirements in the US will take place at merchant power plants, which sell power into competitive wholesale markets, rather than at regulated-utility plants, which sell power to retail customers. Therefore, the effects will be concentrated in the Southeast (SERC), the mid-Atlantic (RFC), and Texas (ERCOT). The map and data below are from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation.
According to one analysis, the new regulations are expected to push approximately 25,000 - 40,000 MegaWatts (MW, or 25-40 GigaWatts (GW)) of smaller, older coal plants into retirement, in addition to the 5,000 MW of retirements that have already been announced. Another analysis estimated that 50,000 MW of capacity is "at risk" of retirement. A third analysis placed the total at 60,000 MW between 2013 and 2017.
This graph is from the China Energy Group at the US Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, in "China Energy and Emission Paths to 2030 (2nd edition), as shown in the Citibank analysis that projects peak Chinese CO2 emissions by 2020. Bernstein projects a 2016 peak.
This Citibank graph has 2 IEA & 4 Citi curves.
The 4 Citi curves beneath the 2 IEA differ in economic growth & energy policy assumptions.
US carbon intensity for electric generation in 2012 was 0.50 t CO2 / MWh, while China's was a bit more than 0.7. - USDOE/EIA
This projection for coal power is outdated. Peak coal in China was once projected for after 2030, but revised by China to 2026. Driving China’s coal peak earlier are:
horrible air pollution from coal
slower (4-6%/yr) GDP growth
natural gas revolution
huge wind & solar growth
more hydro & nukes
energy efficiency & clean coal.
A graph from the USDOE EIA. China's newest (ultra-supercritical) coal plants operate at 45% efficiency. China leads the world in the number of such efficient coal plants. As more old Chinese coal-fired power plants retire, the efficiency of China's coal-fired power plant fleet will rise. 45% is considerably more efficient than the EU average of 38%, and even more efficient compared to the old 33% rule of thumb in the U.S.
For comparison, the newest natural gas plants in the US achieve 56-60% efficiency, using combined jet engine and steam turbine cycles with the latest metallurgy, etc.
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