2021-2025 Articles
8 x More Children Will Face Extreme Heat Waves by 2050s - UNICEF 1124.rtf
Why Future Droughts Will Not Be about Rain 1124.rtf
World on Pace for 1.8°C More Warming without Immediate Action 1024.rtf
$91 Billion Trade Means Mining in One of the World’s Hottest Places 0824.rtf
World’s Top Climate Scientists Expect Global Heating to Blast past 1.5°C Target 0524.rtf
Why the Recent ‘Acceleration’ in Global Warming Is What Scientists Expect 0424.rtf
Global Warming in the Pipeline - Hansen 101523.pdf
Is Climate Change Speeding Up? Here’s What Jim Hansen, Scientists Say. 1223.rtf
The Disagreement between 2 Climate Scientists That Will Decide Our Future 1223.rtf
World Has 14% Chance of Keeping Warming Below 1.5°C in Best Case 1123.rtf
James Hansen Is Back with Another Dire Climate Warning 1123.rtf
Famed Climate Scientist Has a New, Dire Prediction 1123.rtf
In Early 2029 ±, Earth Will Likely Lock into Breaching Key Warming Threshold 1023.rtf
These Are the Places That Could Become ‘Unlivable’ as Earth Warms 1023.rtf
Climate Inferno Threatens to Turn Athens Into Outpost of Sahara 0723.rtf
Some Scientists Say There’s No Such Thing as New Normal for Extreme Weather 0723.rtf
World Unlikely to Limit Temperature Rise to 2°C, Warns Former IPCC Chairman 0723.rtf
‘We are damned fools’ - Scientist Who Sounded Climate Alarm in 1980s Warns of Worse to Come 0723.rtf
Odds Are that Earth Will Cross Crucial 1.5°C Threshold within 5 Years - WMO 0523.rtf
James Hansen Warns of a Short-Term Climate Shock, with 2° of Warming by 2050 - 0523.rtf
India’s Workers Are Trapped in a Vicious Cycle of Coal and Heat 0523.rtf
World Likely to Breach 1.5°C Climate Threshold by 2027, Scientists Warn 0523.rtf
Paris Could Hit 50°C (122°F) by 2050. How Can the City Adapt? 0423.rtf
Click for more
Earth Is Likely to Hit 1.5°C in 10-12 Years, Even if Emissions Decline 0123.rtf
UN Finds ‘No Credible Pathway to 1.5C in Place’ 1022.rtf
Earth Is on Track to Warm above 2°C despite Climate Action 1022.rtf
‘Virtually Every Child’ to Face Frequent Heat Waves by 2050 - UNICEF 1022.rtf
New Fossil Fuels ‘Incompatible’ with 1.5°C Goal 1022.rtf
The Heat Wave Crushing the West Previews Farmworkers’ Hot Future 0922.rtf
Why This European Heat Wave Is So Scary 0722.rtf
Rise in Extreme Heat Will Hit Minority Communities Hardest 0822.rtf
100 Million Americans Will Be in ‘Extreme Heat Belt’ by the 2050s 0822.rtf
How the Dust Bowl 90 Years Ago Prophesied Our Climate-Ravaged Future 0622.rtf
50-50 Chance Planet Will Overshoot 1.5° before 2026 - 0522.rtf
Why Some Climate Models Are Running Red Hot - Clouds, Water, Ice 0522.rtf
India’s Frequent Heat Waves a Reminder of Climate Change Impacts 0322.rtf
Middle East on Course for Huge Climate Change Losses - IMF 0322.rtf
2022 Is Forecast to Be One of the Warmest on Record 1221.rtf
Global Warming Rate over Next 25 Years Could Double the Previous 50’s - Hansen 0921.rtf
Heat Waves to Drastically Worsen in Northern Hemisphere 0821.rtf
Pacific Northwest’s Deadly Summer Augurs More Heat Waves, Deaths to Come 0721.rtf
Athens' Next Decade 'Will Be All about Heat’ 0521.rtf
Many Scientists Wrongly Say Warming Could Stop Soon after Emissions Go to Zero 0121.rtf
Climate Crisis Will Cause Falling Humidity in Global Cities 0121.rtf
Projected global surface temperature changes under zero CO2 emissions (blue line), zero CO2 and aerosol emissions (red), zero GHG emissions (yellow) and zero GHG and aerosol emissions (purple). Chart by Carbon Brief using Highcharts, adapted from Figure 1.5 in the IPCC SR15.
Historical warming values (black) and combination with model simulations are estimated using the methods described in the first figure.
2017-2020 Articles
Covid Lockdowns Will Only Lower 2050 Temperatures by 0.01°C, Predicts UN 1220.rtf
Earth May Temporarily Pass Dangerous 1.5°C Warming Limit by 2024 - 0920.rtf
Green Covid Recovery Could Prevent 0.3°C of Warming by 2050 - 0820.rtf
Even if We Start to Fix Climate Change, Proof May Not Show Up for 30 Years 0720.rtf
State of the Climate Report Released by UN and WMO Chiefs 0320.rtf
Planet Is ‘Way off Track' in Dealing with Climate Change, U.N. Says 0320.rtf
Climate Change Is Accelerating - ‘Things Are Getting Worse’ 1219.rtf
Return of the 'Blob' - Hawaii's Reefs Threatened by Marine Heat Wave 1019.rtf
We Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118.rtf
Immediate Fossil Fuel Phaseout Could Arrest Climate Change 0119.rtf
Global Warming Will Happen Faster than We Think 1218.rtf
Human-Induced Climate Change Makes Heat Waves 30 Times More Likely 1218.rtf
Very Hot and Very Dry Conditions Have Doubled Worldwide 1118.rtf
Record Heat Wave This Summer May Bleach Great Barrier Reef Again 1118.rtf
Climate-Warming El Niño Very Likely in 2019, Says UN Agency 1118.rtf
New Climate Report Actually Understates Threat, Some Researchers Argue 1018.rtf
How Melting Arctic Ice Could Cook the Tropics 0618.rtf
Global Warming Set to Exceed 1.5°C and Slow Economic Growth - U.N. Draft 0618.rtf
‘Very High Risk’ Earth Will Warm beyond 1.5°C – Leaked UN Report 0218.rtf
Warming Set to Breach Paris Accord's 1.5°C Limit by Mid-Century - IPCC 0118.rtf
Earth's Temperature Could Spike above Key 1.5°C Target by 2022 - 0118.rtf
Sun’s Magnetic Changes Could Yield ’Mini Ice Age’, Freeze Major Rivers by 2030 - 0118.rtf
Landmark Report Defines Climate Change in Austria 1217.rtf
Australian Cities to Have 50°C Summer Days by 2040 - 1017.rtf
Climate Report Says Montana Must Adapt to Warmer, Drier Seasons 0917.rtf
Ambitious 1.5°C Paris Climate Target Is Still Possible, New Analysis Shows 0917.rtf
Meeting Paris Pledges Would Prevent at Least 1°C of Global Warming 0617.rtf
'Alarming'- Keeping Warming to 1.5°C to Shield Australia from Big Extremes 0517.rtf
Planet Could Breach 1.5°C Warming within 10 years, but Beware of Caveats 0517.rtf
Next Decade Critical for Climate Targets 0517.rtf
Extreme Weather More Likely to Hit Alberta as Temperatures Heat Up 0417.rtf
Scorching Phoenix May Be Out of Position to Deal with Climate Change 0317.rtf
2016 and earlier Articles
Negative Emissions Key to Meeting 2°C Threshold 0716.rtf
- bio-energy with carbon capture and storage. Just cutting emissions under the Paris agreement may not be enough to keep global warming from blasting past 2°C. - NCAR study
Forest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616.rtf
- They send carbon from peat and permafrost into the atmosphere.
Climate Risk in Southeast & Texas - Kinniburgh 0715 - PDF, 114 pp
Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest - Risky Business / Grayson 0115 - PDF, 58 pp
See key excerpts, as maps etc., in the next section: Future after 2050.
Midwest Climate Future - Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115 - summary of the above study
Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115 - summary of the above study, Iowa-centric
Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Trigger Uncontrollable Climate Change Globally 1116.rtf
Climate Change May Be Escalating So Fast, It Could Be ‘Game Over’ 1116.rtf
U.S. Southwest Faces 99% Risk of 'Megadroughts' due to Climate Change 1016.rtf
The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100. It’s Not Pretty. 0516.rtf
World Could Warm by Massive 10°C, if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0516.rtf
Burning All Fossil Fuels Could Yield Global Warmth Not Seen in 65 Million Years 0516.rtf
Crocodiles and Palm Trees in the Arctic? New Report Suggests Yes. 0516.rtf
Unusual Heat Waves in Africa Will Soon Be the Norm 0516.rtf
Warming Means Nicer U.S. Weather, But It Won’t Last 0416.rtf
Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216.rtf
Searing Heat Waves Could Become Annual Threat 0216.rtf
Warmer Seas Speed Up Antarctic Ice Melt 0216.rtf
Boulder Scientists Warn Planet Is Nearing Critical Warming Threshold 0216.rtf
Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History' 0216.rtf
What the Earth Will Be Like in 10,000 years, according to Scientists 0216.rtf
'If the World Ends in 2100, We’re Probably OK' 0116.rtf
Paris Climate Limit Will See Some Parts of World Warm by 6°C 0116.rtf
Intolerable, Unimaginable Heat Forecast for Persian Gulf 1015.rtf
Global Warming Could Make Hajj Impossible Later This Century 1015.rtf
Worst-Case Scenario for Sea Level Rise- No More New York, Berlin or Shanghai 0915.rtf
Climate Scientists Fear ‘Day After Tomorrow’ Scenario 0915.rtf
Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915.rtf
Vietnam Ready to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0815.rtf
Climate Change Could Give San Francisco the Climate of San Diego 0815.rtf
More Hot Summers Loom for Parts of UK 0715.rtf
How Fast Will Rising Temperatures Shrink the Earth's CO2 Storage Spots? 0615.rtf
NASA’s Tons of Data Help Developing Nations Prepare for Global Warming 0615.rtf
The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615.rtf
The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India. Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515.rtf
Americans’ Exposure to Heat Extremes Could Rise 6-fold by Mid-Century 0515.rtf
Scientists Say Globe Could Warm 6°C by 2100, Call for Action Before Paris 0415.rtf
Albedo Effect of Retreating Arctic Sea Ice - Hudson 0811.pdf
California Facing Extreme Heat Waves and Rising Seas 0415.rtf
Warming Could Hit Rates Unseen in 1,000 Years 0315.rtf
The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315.rtf
Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510.rtf
Study Predicts Global Warming Will See Australian Deserts Grow Bigger 0215.rtf
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215.pdf
US 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future' 0215.rtf
Climate Change Will Hit Australia Harder Than Rest of the World 0115.rtf
Capping Warming at 2°C Not Enough to Avert Disaster, Experts Warn 1114.rtf
With Heat and Humidity, Areas Will Become Unsuited for Outdoor Activity 0914.rtf
Australia's Dry South to Become Even Drier 0714.rtf
IPCC Warns of ‘Devastating Rise of 4-5°C If We Carry on as We Are' 0414.rtf
Long-Term Warming Likely to Be Significant Despite Recent Slowdown 0314.rtf
Heat Waves in Eastern US Will Become Deadlier 1113.rtf
Global Warming Could Kill Thousands of Australians- IPCC 1013.rtf
Earth, 2100 AD- 4 Futures of Environment and Society 1013.rtf
Emissions Could Fuel Global Warming for Millennia 0813.rtf
Climate Could Warm Fastest in Last 65 Million Years 0813.rtf
Hansen Warns of "Runaway" Warming 0713.rtf
Waiting on New Climate Deal Leads to 5°C Warming 0613.rtf
Warming Will Cut Human Work Capacity a Lot 0213.rtf
On Target for 5°C Warming by 2100 1212.rtf
World Bank Fears Devastating 4°C Warming 1112.rtf
On Track for 6°C Warming 0412.rtf
Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible 0312.rtf
Carbon Emissions to Defer Ice Age 0112.rtf
Warming Could Exceed 2°C in This Lifetime 1011.rtf
World Could Heat Up 4°C in 50 Years 1109.rtf
Earth Due to Warm 6°C 1109.rtf
UN Says 6°F Rise by 2100 Likely 1009.rtf
Unchecked, +7°C by 2100 - MIT 0509.rtf
4°C+ May Be Inevitable 0808.rtf
The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100. It’s Not Pretty. 0516.rtf
An update to the famous temperature spiral using future climate projections
Credit: Jay Alder/USGS
Albedo Effect of Retreating Arctic Sea Ice - Hudson 0811.pdf Albedo warming effect of complete Arctic Ocean ice loss is ~1/4 of the rise since 1750 from added GHGs. ~15% of that ice albedo warming effect has already occurred.
Below is context for understanding projections of future warming.
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) are needed to interpret the graphs below it. RCPs are newer scenarios than the IPCC used in 2007 (A2, B1, etc.)
Caveat: these appear not to include positive feedback loops, especially carbon emissions from thawing permafrost.
The figure shows fossil fuel carbon emission pathways for the CO2e levels above: IPCC 5 Fig. TS-19.
The inset graph relates RCP emission paths to ppm CO2 in the air.
Four RCP emission paths are shown: in billion tonnes (Pg) of carbon per year.
In RCP 2.6, net world CO2 emissions from fossil fuels peak ~2020, at ~10% higher than today's. They fall below zero ~2075. In this case, CO2 levels peak at ~450 ppm and fall to ~420 by 2100. Relative to 1901-60, the US has already warmed 2°F. We will warm 2°F more by ~2045, levelling off thereafter.
In RCP 4.5, emissions peak ~2040, at 130% of today's, then fall to 60% of today's in 2080. CO2 levels rise to ~540 ppm. The US warms 4°F more by 2100.
Black areas are uninhabitable for humans now. Cross-hatched areas will become so by about 2070, with current trends.
UN Says World Is Now on Course for Warming of Up to 3.1°C 1024.rtf
Warming in Most of World to Hit 3°C Much Faster than Formerly Expected - AI 1224.rtf
Beholding the Arctic’s Wonders, and Its Melting Future 1224.rtf
Why Future Droughts Will Not Be about Rain 1124.rtf
Most Climate Scientists See Temperature Rise Exceeding 1.5 & 2°C Paris Targets 1024.rtf
Most Climate Scientists See Temperature Rise Exceeding 1.5 & 2°C Paris Targets 1024.rtf
World’s Top Climate Scientists Expect Global Heating to Blast past 1.5°C Target 0524.rtf
46°C Summer Days and ‘Supercell’ Storms Are Britain’s Future. Prepare Now! 0324.rtf
James Hansen Is Back with Another Dire Climate Warning 1123.rtf
Untamed Global Warming Risks Soaring Death Toll in Middle East 0423.rtfHow Climate Change May Shape the World in Centuries to Come 1121.rtf - up to 4.6°C warming by 2500
Summer Could Last 6 Months by 2100 - 0321.rtf - It defined summer as the “onset of temperatures in the hottest 25% during that time period, while winter began with temperatures in the coldest 25%."
'Past Point of No Return' - Cutting Emissions to Zero Won't Stop Global Warming 1120.rtf - If we humans stop emissions immediately, but do not remove carbon from the air, by 2500 Earth’s surface temperature will be 3°C higher than in 1880 and seas will be 8 feet higher. To limit the potentially catastrophic effects on Earth's ecosystems and human society, at least 33 gigatons of CO2 would need to be removed from the atmosphere each year from 2020 onward.
Climate Change Worst-Case Effects to Be Worse than Previous Estimates 0919.rtf - 6-7°C by 2100, which is 1°C warmer than the previous projection (SSP5 scenario ~ business as usual?)
What Would Happen if All the World’s Trees Disappeared? 0919.rtf - Earth would become a vastly warmer planet (more than +12°C since industrial revolution began), whose mass extinctions may include humans.
D.C. Averages a Week Of 100° Days. Climate Change Could Make That 2 Months. 0719.rtf - take 3
Louisiana, Florida to See Biggest Spike in Extreme Heat Days 0719.rtf - take 2
Florida Really Tops the Charts of States That Climate Change Will Heat Up 0719 - take 1 on study
By 2080, Global Warming Will Make New York City Feel like Arkansas 0219.rtf - future analogs for 100s of U.S. cities
World Set to Warm 2.8°C by 2100 with Current Climate Policies - UN 1123.rtf
James Hansen Is Back with Another Dire Climate Warning 1123.rtf
Famed Climate Scientist Has a New, Dire Prediction 1123.rtf
What Arctic Ice Tells Us about Climate Change 0823.rtf
Some Scientists Say There’s No Such Thing as New Normal for Extreme Weather 0723.rtf
‘We are damned fools’ - Scientist Who Sounded Climate Alarm in 1980s Warns of Worse to Come 0723.rtf
These Countries Will Be Dangerously Hot by 2100 - 0523.rtf
1 in 3 People Will Live in Dangerously Hot Areas by 2080 - 0523.rtf
Earth Could Warm 3° if Nations Keep Building Coal Plants 0423.rtf
Earth Can Warm Nearly 1°C by 2100 from Agriculture Methane Emissions Alone 0323.rtf
Click for moreExtreme Heat Will Change Us 1222.rtf
On CO2 Absorption by Oceans after NetZero.docx
Will Global Warming ‘Stop’ as Soon as Net-Zero Emissions Are Reached? 0421.rtf
The Heat Wave Crushing the West Previews Farmworkers’ Hot Future 0922.rtf
A Michigan Summer Day Could Be as Hot as the Deep South by 2100 - 0822.rtf
Why Some Climate Models Are Running Red Hot 0522.rtf
How Climate Change May Shape the World in Centuries to Come 1121.rtf
What Will Climate Change Feel Like? New Tool Provides Granular Estimates 0921.rtf
Heat Waves to Drastically Worsen in Northern Hemisphere 0821.rtf
3°C of Global Warming Is Quite Plausible and Truly Disastrous 0721.rtf
Summer Could Last 6 Months by 2100 - 0321.rtf
Average Arctic Temperature Could Rise 20°С by 2100 - 0321.rtf
Climate Crisis Will Cause Falling Humidity in Global Cities 0121.rtf
Warming Already Baked In Will Blow past Climate Goals 0121.rtf
'Past Point of No Return' - Cutting Emissions to Zero Won't Stop Global Warming 1120.rtf
Earth Is Setting Heat Records. It Will Be Much Hotter One Day. 0820.rtf
Heat Wave Might Be the New Normal, Thanks to Climate Change 0820.rtf
US Cities Could See 13-30 x More Extreme Heat Days by 2100, vs Early 2000s 0820.rtf
Climate Change Worst-Case Effects to Be Worse than Previous Estimates 0919.rtf
Extreme Heat Will Change Us 1222.rtf - health, adaptation, inequality, the future - The story compares laborers and other people in Kuwait and Basra, Iraq. Kuwaiti citizens (but not laborers). Most Kuwaitis avoid going outside. Air conditioning is a rare luxury in Basra (Garden of Eden land), where it got to 164°F on the welder's benchtop and 179°F on a tire swing on a playground. The struggle to sweat and cool off increases risk of kidney stones and kidney disease. The welder's body temperature rose 3°C, a dangerous fever, from the outdoor heat. Chronic dehydration abounds in Basra.
What Will Climate Change Feel Like? New Tool Provides Granular Estimates 0921.rtf - 2 examples, above and below
Wet-Bulb temperatures above 35°C are lethal within 6 hours.
Jacobabad hit 35° on about 90 days averaged over 1985-2015. Dubai hit 35° on about 63 days, Kolkata 11 days, and Phoenix 1 day.
The projections for 2030 are 127 days for Jacobabad, 135 for Dubai, 17 for Kolkata, and 5 for Phoenix.
Will Global Warming ‘Stop’ as Soon as Net-Zero Emissions Are Reached? 0421.rtf
"The best available evidence shows that, on the contrary, warming is likely to more or less stop, once carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reach zero." This is incorrect. Hausfather (the article's author) says, once emissions reach net-zero, temperatures were expected to remain steady, rather than dropping for a few centuries after emissions reach zero. A NASA climate FAQ – last updated in 2007 – says that “even if we stopped emitting GHGs today, global warming would continue to happen for at least several more decades, if not centuries”.
Natural processes will remove CO2 from the air. Rock weathering will do so about 2% as fast as we we are adding CO2 to the air. But there is far more CO2 in the air from our 2 centuries of legacy emissions. At that rate, rock weathering would take 1-2 millennia to remove most of the legacy emissions.
However, the oceans and biosphere now absorb about half of human emissions each year. If the oceans keeps absorbing CO2 at the current rate, oceans will remove CO2 from the air faster than rock weathering does.
However, the oceans are unlikely to keep absorbing CO2 at roughly the present rate, or much at all, since they are aleady very close to CO2 equilibrium with the atmosphere. As Prof. Klaus Lackner (a pioneer in CO2 removal) explains, "If CO2 in the air does not rise, the rate of uptake by the ocean and the biomass both slow down dramatically. As long as the CO2 in the air goes up, the CO2 goes fast into the ocean. The atmosphere is about a year or two ahead of the mixed layer. If the CO2 in the air does not go up, the only way the mixed layer takes more is that it sheds CO2 to the next layer below. The longer you leave it that way, the slower this transport will be. It is roughly proportional to the gradient. The deeper the CO2 gets, the shallower this gradient will be. If emissions were to stop, it is the deeper ocean which has to pick up CO2 and the smaller the gradient, the slower it gets. The net result is that the uptake goes down rapidly. As a result, it will take the ocean more than 1,000 years to get in equilibrium with the air. And even then, the last 20% stays."
From another perspctive, the paleoclimate record is pretty clear that today's CO2 levels are associated with planetary surface warming of 2.5-5°C hotter than now, once changed ocean circulation from the joining of North and South America 3 million years ago is accounted for.
Albedo Changes Drive 4.9 to 9.4°C Global Warming by 2400.pdf -
Fry 1220, PDF 15 pages
Dr. Fry's scenarios show faster warming than most other scenarios, mostly because they are driven by albedo changes, which were triggered by more CO2 and methane.
The scenarios and results are by Dr. Fry, whose website this is.
Below are graphs by Dr. James Hansen
Earth Facing ‘Global Warming Armageddon’ in Less than 150 Years 0219.rtf 5-8°C warming, like 55 million years ago. Below are scenarios that badly underestimate future changes from albedo effects, from the IPCC in October 2018.
Immediate Fossil Fuel Phaseout Could Arrest Climate Change 0119.rtf -
It would not slow climate change very much, until the amplifying feedbacks we have unleashed play out. But it would prevent 2 to 3°C warming that otherwise would occur by about 2400 if we waited till 2050 to phase out fossil fuels entirely. That would mean the difference between continued civilization and deep (80-90%) cuts in human population. Of course, waiting longer to phase out fossil fuel use would make future warming even worse, threatening actual extinction of humans.
UK Summers Could Be over 5°C Warmer by 2070 - 1118.rtf
We Are Heading for a New Cretaceous, Not for a New Normal 1018.rtf
The Climate Won’t Stop Changing In 2100 - 1018.rtf
Trump Administration Sees a 7° Rise in Global Temperatures by 2100 - 0918.rtf
National Parks Are Getting Hotter and Drier. What’s the Outlook for 2100? 0918.rtf
Earth at Risk of Becoming ‘Hothouse' if Tipping Point Is Reached 0818.rtf
Chinese Most at Risk of Death from Deadly Heat Waves 0718.rtf
New Evaluation of Climate Models Reveals Abrupt Changes Ahead of Schedule 0718.rtf
Global Temperature Rises Could Double Those Predicted by Climate Models 0718.rtf
Are We Ready for the Deadly Heat Waves of the Future? 0418.rtf
All of Europe’s 571 Cities Are Destined for Worse Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods 0218.rtf
PyeongChang Climate Extremes 0218.rtf
Heat Waves - Climate Change and Immigration 0218.rtf
Carbon Pollution Has Ended the Era of Stable Climate 0218.rtf
Deadly Heat Waves Becoming More Common, due to Climate Change 0817.rtf - European Comm., take #1
Weather Disasters to Impact 2 out of 3 Europeans by 2100, Study Says 0817.rtf - European Comm., take #2
How Extreme Could Temperatures Become in Texas? 0817.rtf
Climate Change to Cause Humid Heat Waves Killing Even Healthy People 0817.rtf - MIT lead author, take #2
Warming to Boost Deadly Humidity Levels across South Asia 0817.rtf - MIT lead author, take #1
Study Finds Only 5% Chance of Avoiding ‘Dangerous’ Global Warming 0717.rtf
California’s Economy Will Suffer Plenty from Climate Change. At Least It’s Not Florida. 0717.rtf
Delhi Could Become as Hot as Sharjah by 2100 - 0717.rtf
This is How Climate Change Will Shift the World’s Cities 0717.rtf See original URL for interactive map. A dozen world cities (none among 7 US cities) will become hotter than any place on Earth now.
Paris Climate Deal Won’t Save Us. Our Future Depends on De-Growth. 0717.rtf
Meeting Paris Pledges Would Prevent at Least 1°C of Global Warming 0617.rtf
Humans Poised to Cause Earth’s Fastest Climate Change in 50 Million Years 0417.rtf - take 1
The Climate Could Hit a State Unseen in 50 Million Years 0417.rtf - CO2 levels could be highest since then. Stop emitting!
Stark Warning on Atlantic Cooling 0217.rtf
New Evidence Confirms Risk That Mideast May Become Uninhabitable 0317.rtf
Climate Change Predicted to Transform Vancouver into San Diego, at Heavy Cost 0217.rtf
Arctic Sea Ice Melt Could Trigger Uncontrollable Climate Change Globally 1116.rtf
Climate Change May Be Escalating So Fast, It Could Be ‘Game Over’ 1116.rtf
U.S. Southwest Faces 99% Risk of 'Megadroughts' due to Climate Change 1016.rtf
Negative Emissions Key to Meeting 2°C Threshold 0716.rtf - bio-energy with carbon capture and storage. Just cutting emissions under the Paris agreement may not be enough to keep global warming from blasting past 2°C. - NCAR study
Forest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616.rtf - They send carbon from peat and permafrost into the atmosphere.
The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100. It’s Not Pretty. 0516.rtf
World Could Warm by Massive 10°C, if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0516.rtf - Take 3 on study
Burning All Fossil Fuels Could Yield Global Warmth Not Seen in 65 Million Years 0516.rtf - Take 2 on study
Crocodiles and Palm Trees in the Arctic? New Report Suggests Yes. 0516.rtf - Take 1 on study
Unusual Heat Waves in Africa Will Soon Be the Norm 0516.rtf “Unusual" means record-breaking, hot & dry never seen before.
Warming Means Nicer U.S. Weather, But It Won’t Last 0416.rtf
Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216.rtf
Searing Heat Waves Could Become Annual Threat 0216.rtf
Warmer Seas Speed Up Antarctic Ice Melt 0216.rtf
Boulder Scientists Warn Planet Is Nearing Critical Warming Threshold 0216.rtf - Ocean heat inertia guarantees 0.5°C more warming, even if CO2 stays no higher than 400 ppm.
Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History' 0216.rtf - take 1
What the Earth Will Be Like in 10,000 years, according to Scientists 0216.rtf - take 2
'If the World Ends in 2100, We’re Probably OK' 0116.rtf - It doesn’t so we’re not OK.
Analog: 55 million years ago, +5-6°C over 4,000 years. Long-term climate sensitivity exceeds 4.5°C for CO2 doubling.
Paris Climate Limit Will See Some Parts of World Warm by 6°C 0116.rtf
UK Summers Could Be over 5°C Warmer by 2070 - 1118.rtf
We Are Heading for a New Cretaceous, Not for a New Normal 1018.rtf
The Climate Won’t Stop Changing In 2100 - 1018.rtf
Trump Administration Sees a 7° Rise in Global Temperatures by 2100 - 0918.rtf
National Parks Are Getting Hotter and Drier. What’s the Outlook for 2100? 0918.rtf
Earth at Risk of Becoming ‘Hothouse' if Tipping Point Is Reached 0818.rtf
Chinese Most at Risk of Death from Deadly Heat Waves 0718.rtf
New Evaluation of Climate Models Reveals Abrupt Changes Ahead of Schedule 0718.rtf
Global Temperature Rises Could Double Those Predicted by Climate Models 0718.rtf
Are We Ready for the Deadly Heat Waves of the Future? 0418.rtf
All of Europe’s 571 Cities Are Destined for Worse Heat Waves, Droughts, Floods 0218.rtf
PyeongChang Climate Extremes 0218.rtf
Heat Waves - Climate Change and Immigration 0218.rtf
Carbon Pollution Has Ended the Era of Stable Climate 0218.rtf
Deadly Heat Waves Becoming More Common, due to Climate Change 0817.rtf - European Comm., take #1
Weather Disasters to Impact 2 out of 3 Europeans by 2100, Study Says 0817.rtf - European Comm., take #2
How Extreme Could Temperatures Become in Texas? 0817.rtf
Climate Change to Cause Humid Heat Waves Killing Even Healthy People 0817.rtf - MIT lead author, take #2
Warming to Boost Deadly Humidity Levels across South Asia 0817.rtf - MIT lead author, take #1
Study Finds Only 5% Chance of Avoiding ‘Dangerous’ Global Warming 0717.rtf
California’s Economy Will Suffer Plenty from Climate Change. At Least It’s Not Florida. 0717.rtf
Delhi Could Become as Hot as Sharjah by 2100 - 0717.rtf
This is How Climate Change Will Shift the World’s Cities 0717.rtf See original URL for interactive map. A dozen world cities (none among 7 US cities) will become hotter than any place on Earth now.
Earth at Risk of Becoming ‘Hothouse' if Tipping Point Is Reached 0818 -
Amplifying feedbacks mentioned include permafrost thaw; loss of seabed methane hydrates; weaker land and ocean carbon sinks, starting with forest dieback and increased bacteria respiration; loss of Arctic summer sea ice; reduced Antarctic sea ice; and loss of polar ice sheets.
“To reverse the potential domino effect … requires … improved forest, agricultural and soil management; biodiversity conservation; and technologies that remove CO2 from the atmosphere and store it underground.... More broadly, 'collective human action' is required to steer us a way from this potential threshold: 'decarbonization of the global economy, enhancement of biosphere carbon sinks’ ….
The report projects that tipping point elements will happen at differing global temperatures.
Intolerable, Unimaginable Heat Forecast for Persian Gulf 1015.rtf
Global Warming Could Make Hajj Impossible Later This Century 1015.rtf
Worst-Case Scenario for Sea Level Rise- No More New York, Berlin or Shanghai 0915.rtf
Climate Scientists Fear ‘Day After Tomorrow’ Scenario 0915.rtf
Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915.rtf
Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest.pdf
Vietnam Ready to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions 0815.rtf
Climate Change Could Give San Francisco the Climate of San Diego 0815.rtf
More Hot Summers Loom for Parts of UK 0715.rtf
How Fast Will Rising Temperatures Shrink the Earth's CO2 Storage Spots? 0615.rtf
NASA’s Tons of Data Help Developing Nations Prepare for Global Warming 0615.rtf
The Deadly Combination of Heat and Humidity 0615.rtf
The Heat and Death Toll Are Rising in India. Is This a Glimpse of Earth’s Future? 0515.rtf
Americans’ Exposure to Heat Extremes Could Rise 6-fold by Mid-Century 0515.rtf
Scientists Say Globe Could Warm 6°C by 2100, Call for Action Before Paris 0415.rtf
Albedo Effect of Retreating Arctic Sea Ice - Hudson 0811.pdf
California Facing Extreme Heat Waves and Rising Seas 0415.rtf
Warming Could Hit Rates Unseen in 1,000 Years 0315.rtf
The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315.rtf
Study Predicts Global Warming Will See Australian Deserts Grow Bigger 0215.rtf
°C median projected changes in temperature for 2080-2099, relative to 1986-2005, for (a) summer, (b) autumn, (c) winter, and (d) spring under a modeling scenario that has littl reduction in demissions (RECP8.5).
Source: CSIRO
Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215.pdf excerpt on Overviews page.
US 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future' 0215.rtf - summary of above study
Climate Change Will Hit Australia Harder Than Rest of the World 0115.rtf
Climate Change Could Hammer Iowa Agriculture, Manufacturing 0115.rtf - summary of the above study, Iowa-centric
Midwest Climate Future- Missouri Becomes Like Arizona and Chicago Like Texas 0115.rtf - summary of the above study
Capping Warming at 2°C Not Enough to Avert Disaster, Experts Warn 1114.rtf
With Heat and Humidity, Areas Will Become Unsuited for Outdoor Activity 0914.rtf
Australia's Dry South to Become Even Drier 0714.rtf
IPCC Warns of ‘Devastating Rise of 4-5°C If We Carry on as We Are' 0414.rtf
Long-Term Warming Likely to Be Significant Despite Recent Slowdown 0314.rtf
Heat Waves in Eastern US Will Become Deadlier 1113.rtf
Global Warming Could Kill Thousands of Australians- IPCC 1013.rtf
Earth, 2100 AD- 4 Futures of Environment and Society 1013.rtf
Emissions Could Fuel Global Warming for Millennia 0813.rtf
Climate Could Warm Fastest in Last 65 Million Years 0813.rtf
Hansen Warns of "Runaway" Warming 0713.rtf
Waiting on New Climate Deal Leads to 5°C Warming 0613.rtf
Warming Will Cut Human Work Capacity a Lot 0213.rtf
On Target for 5°C Warming by 2100 1212.rtf
World Bank Fears Devastating 4°C Warming 1112.rtf
On Track for 6°C Warming 0412.rtf
Global Warming Close to Becoming Irreversible 0312.rtf
Carbon Emissions to Defer Ice Age 0112.rtf
Warming Could Exceed 2°C in This Lifetime 1011.rtf
Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510.rtf - see above
World Could Heat Up 4°C in 50 Years 1109.rtf
Earth Due to Warm 6°C 1109.rtf
UN Says 6°F Rise by 2100 Likely 1009.rtf
Unchecked, +7°C by 2100 - MIT 0509.rtf
4°C+ May Be Inevitable 0808.rtf
NASA’s Tons of Data Help Developing Nations Prepare for Global Warming 0615.rtf -
below, 45°C = 113°F.
RCP 8.5 (see 2 maps below) is the highest human emissions case; it may include a bit of permafrost carbon emissions.
The Indian Ocean surface is mostly 80°F in this projection, but pockets of 90-100°F water surround Indonesia and Malaya. Seas around Siciy and Greece also hit 90°F. The Red Sea surface reaches 110°F. Normal temperatures reach 100°F in much of the US and eastern China.
Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest - Risky Business / Grayson 0115 - PDF, 58 pp
Days above 95°F will roughly triple. This includes 75-100 such days a year for southern Illinois (Carbondale, Cairo, Vincennes, plus Decauter) and more than half of Missouri (St. Louis, Cape Girardeau, Joplin, Sedalia, Rolla, Poplar Bluff, Hannibal, etc.) It also includes Evansville IN, plus slivers of Ohio between Portsmouth and Marietta and Iowa north of Hannibal. 75-100 days a year above 95°F is almost as hot as Las Vegas (99-114, 2012-14).
The Midwest in particular will experience rising temperatures, in terms of warmer winters more than unbearable summers. But by the end of the century, the average Midwesterner will likely see 22 to 77 days per year over 95°F, compared to only 3, on average, over the past 30 years.
Heat in the Heartland - Exec Summary 0115 - PDF, summary of the above study
Heat in the Heartland - General Regional Summary 0115 - PDF, a piece of the above study
There is a 5% (or more) chance that 125-150 days a year will exceed 95°F in much the same area (plus Terre Haute and Jasper IN and Effingham IL, but minus Hannibal and Sedalia MO). See the rest of Figure 1 in the report for the 5% tail.
These compare to 114 days above 95°F for Las Vegas in 2014, 95 such days in 2013, and 115 in 2012. The southern Midwest can become hotter than Las Vegas by the end of the century (or a little later), if current emission trends continue.
Heat Stroke Index (Wet Bulb Temperatures)
Based on current emission trends (maps from Figure 3 in the report), summers in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana grow hotter by 2100 than Texas and Arizona ones today. Iowa and Ohio ones grow as hot as Texas ones now. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin summers grow almost as hot.
At left mostly above (from Figure 4 in the report), heat stroke days will increase dramatically by the end of the century, from none now. Most of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana would suffer 40-60 days a year of dangerous heat: as bad (hot and humid) as anywhere in Texas. Ohio and Iowa would see 30-50 such days a year.
Worse, all of Illinois - and most of Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana - would experience 10-25 days a year of extremely dangerous heat: hotter (wet bulb) than anywhere in Texas.
In fact, “On our current path, the Midwest will likely see an average of as many as 3 days per year of Category IV conditions, which have never been experienced in the U.S. to date.”
Heat in the Heartland - Agriculture Impacts 0115 - PDF, a piece of the above study. Highlights are below.
Agriculture will be harmed in a major way. Crop losses of 40-64% by 2100 are likely for corn in the Corn Belt and 8-38% by 2100 for soybeans in the same states (IA, IL, IN, OH, MO). The Corn Belt will have moved into Canada, North Dakota, and NW Minnesota. See maps and table below. In most of Missouri and Illinois, plus about half of Iowa and Indiana, crops losses are 25-50%, and worse in a few places. Wheat is much less affected, as it is often grown in the colder months and harvested by June.
Earth, 2300 - Too Hot for Humans 0510.rtf
Projected regional wet-bulb temperatures for an average global temperature increase of 12°C.
Human cannot survive wet-bulb temepratures over 35°C. (Image from Steven C. Sherwood / Matthew Huberb)
Most of the eastern US, India, Australia, the Middle East, and central South America become uninhabitable. Also Spain, China from Shanghai to Tianjin, Egypt, and west Africa.
from 2013 draft US National Climate Assessment (& Overviews page - see RCP paths there)
World Warming: from IPCC's 2007 Science Summary. 1°C (below) = 1.8°F (above). Projected warming is faster in the US than the world as a whole. Relative warming increases toward the poles (see below). Observed warming was 0.2°C in 2000, relative to baseline.
World Warming by Location: from IPCC's 2013 Science Summary.
The 2 maps below are similar, but not identical, to the draft US National Climate Assessment's maps on the Overviews page. RCPs are summarized on the Overviews page.
Temperature rise is greater toward the poles and over land.
Dotted areas indicate high agreement among models.
4°C surface warming worldwide translates to 10°F warming averaged across the US. 6-7°F in Florida, 7-8°F in the Southeast and coastal California, but 11°F in Iowa, Minnesota, the Dakotas, and Utah/Idaho. Also 13°F over much of Alaska.
Section Map: Heat
Misc.