Permafrost

2022-2025 Articles

2018 Articles and earlier

2022-2025 Articles

Methane Is Migrating under Permafrost. Emissions Can Skyrocket if It Escapes. 1223.rtfImmense Methane Leaks Discovered in Antarctica 0325.rtf1:3 of the Arctic’s Vast Carbon Sink Is Now an Emissions Source 0125.rtfFrozen Ground in the Arctic Is Sinking at an Increased Rate 0125.rtfArctic Ice Melting Faster, Methane Time Bomb Threatens 0225.rtfNASA Helps Find Thawing Permafrost Adds to Near-Term Global Warming 1024.rtfWhat a Glacier Leaves Behind when it Melts 0824.rtfSurging Methane Emissions Could Be a Sign of a Major Climate Shift 0824.rtf - Permafrost's natural CH4 emissions trail only those of tropical wetlands. Not all permafrost CH4 emissions come from under fresh water; some come from upland areas: yedomas.
Arctic Tundra Shifts to Source of Climate Pollution – 2024 Arctic Report Card 1224.rtfThawing Tundra Is Now a Carbon Source in Fast-Warming Arctic 1224.rtfNASA Helps Find Thawing Permafrost Adds to Near-Term Global Warming 1024.rtfMystery of Siberian Explosive Craters Solved 1024.rtfMost Earth System Models Are Missing Permafrost, a Key Part of Climate Change 0124.rtfGreater Snowfall Speeds the Melting of Arctic Tundra 0823.rtf - It insulates the permafrost underneath it from the very cold air of winter, so that the permafrost thaws earlier or deeper in the warmer seasons.We’re 60 Years Too Late to Stop Global Warming, Sea Level Rises 1120.rtf - a "cycle of self-sustained melting of the permafrost."
"The effect of surface albedo continues on its smooth upward path throughout this period.... It has enough momentum to push the climate system back onto a path of rising temperatures, with its secondary effects of raising humidity and permafrost melting, which then in turn help the system become warmer and warmer, even if man-made GHG emissions are zero."Reeling Arctic Glaciers Are Leaving Bubbling Methane in Their Wake 0723.rtfScientists Now Know Why Methane Mysteriously Surged during Lockdowns 0223.rtfRapid Thawing of World’s Permafrost Is a Big Climate Change Problem 1222.rtfHow the Climate Crisis Is Transforming the Arctic Permafrost 1122.rtf‘Imminent’ Tipping Point Threatens Europe’s Permafrost Peatlands 0322.rtf - Shrinking permafrost area, 4 emission scenarios: RCP 2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5. Higher RCPs are higher emission scenarios, 2.0 is the lowest modelled. On the maps, blue is more permafrost than tan or gray. As emissions increase, permafrost becomes less widespread, or patchier.The Great Siberian Thaw 0122.rtfAcross the Boreal Forest, Scientists Are Tracking Warming’s Toll 0122.rtf

The Great Siberian Thaw 0122.rtf - In-depth history and analysis

2020-2021 Articles

Fire and Ice - Permafrost 1221.rtfArctic Ground ‘Literally Collapsing’ amid Abrupt Thaw 1021.rtfSea-Level Rise Causing Frozen Grounds along Arctic Coastlines to Thaw 1021.rtfScientists Expected Thawing Wetlands in Siberia’s Permafrost. What They Found Is ‘Much More Dangerous.’ 0821.rtfThawing Permafrost Prompts Denali National Park to Reimagine Its Future 0721.rtfFighting Feedback Loop, Scientists Sound Alarm on Canada’s Permafrost Thaw 0421.rtfWhy Drilling the Arctic Refuge Will Release a Double Dose of Carbon 0221.rtfClimate Scientists Show Limits in ‘Point of No Return’ Paper That’s Freaking People Out 1120.rtf'Past Point of No Return' - Cutting Emissions to Zero Won't Stop Global Warming 1120.rtf2°C Warming Would Release Billions of Tons of Soil Carbon 1120.rtfWildfires Trigger Long-Term Permafrost Thawing 0820.rtfMore Rain in the North from Climate Change Is Bad News for Permafrost 0820.rtfHeavy Summer Rains Speed Permafrost Thaw 0820.rtfRapid Arctic Meltdown in Siberia Alarms Scientists 0720.rtfReleasing Herds of Animals into the Arctic Could Delay Permafrost Thawing 0420.rtfLarge Loss of CO2 in Winter Observed across the Northern Permafrost Region - Summary 1019.rtfLarge Loss of CO2 in Winter Observed across the Northern Permafrost Region 1019.rtfArctic Permafrost Moving toward Crisis, Abrupt Thaw a Growing Risk 0320.rtfPacking the Tundra with Animals Could Slow Arctic Melt 0320.rtfThe Arctic Is Getting Greener. That's Bad News for All of Us. 0220.rtfBillions of Acres of Cropland Lie within a New Frontier, as Do 100 Years of Carbon Emissions 0220.rtfArctic Permafrost Thaw Is Warming Climate More than Estimated Earlier 0220.rtfUN Climate Report on Oceans & Ice Highlights Permafrost, Acidity, Low Oxygen 0919.rtfRussian Land of Permafrost and Mammoths Is Thawing 0819.rtfGlobal Warming Could Make Microbes Living in Alaskan Tundra Release More Greenhouse Gases 0719.rtfArctic Permafrost Is Thawing 70 Years Sooner than Predicted 0619.rtfArctic Permafrost Is Thawing So Fast that Scientists Are Losing Their Equipment 0519.rtfMelting Permafrost Releasing Lots of Nitrous Oxide, a Potent Greenhouse Gas 0419.rtfThawing Alpine Permafrost a Stealth Source of CO2 - 0319.rtfArctic Bogs Hold Another Global Warming Risk That Could Spiral Out of Control 0219.rtfUnder the Surface of Russia’s Arctic Super-Region Looms a Disaster 0119.rtfPermafrost Is Warming Around the Globe, a Problem for Climate Change 0119.rtfThen the Ice Melts - the Catastrophe of Vanishing Glaciers 0119.rtf

Large Loss of CO2 in Winter Observed across the Northern Permafrost Region - Summary 1019.rtf

Permafrost Is Warming Around the Globe, a Problem for Climate Change 0119.rtf

Arctic Permafrost Cauldron 0918.rtf

- Much of the carbon emitted is really old, many 1,000s, even millions of years.

2018 Articles and earlier

Satellite Spies Methane Bubbling Up from Arctic Permafrost 1218.rtfSiberian Region Fights to Preserve Permafrost as Planet Warms 1218.rtfArctic Permafrost Cauldron 0918.rtfMelting Permafrost Could Hasten Exceeding 1.5 and 2°C Warming Targets 0918.rtfCoastal Erosion in the Arctic Intensifies Global Warming 0918.rtfAlaskan Permafrost Flipped from Carbon Sink to Carbon Source 0618.rtfSome Arctic Ground Is No Longer Freezing – in Winter 0818.rtfThe Arctic’s Carbon Bomb Might Be Even More Potent than We Thought 0318.rtfAncient Carbon Coming from Arctic Soil Might Be Fine, Might Be Terrible 0318.rtfIs There a Ticking Time Bomb under the Arctic? 0118.rtfUnearthing the Secrets of Soil 1117.rtfGiant Craters in Canada's Melting Permafrost Impacting Climate Change 0817.rtfAlaska’s Permafrost Is Thawing 0817.rtfMethane Seeps Out as Arctic Permafrost Starts to Resemble Swiss Cheese 0717.rtfArctic Stronghold of World’s Seeds Flooded after Permafrost Melts 0517.rtfThawing Alaska Permafrost Sends Autumn CO2 Emissions Surging 0517.rtfPermafrost Thaw in Canadian Arctic Is Sign of Global Trend 0417.rtf - unfrozen area increases a lotGlobal Warming Could Thaw Far More Permafrost Than Expected 0417.rtfSiberia's Growing 'Doorway to Hell' Offers Clues on Climate Change 0317.rtfMassive Permafrost Thaw in Canada Portends Huge Carbon Release 0217.rtfArctic Soils Set to Release Lots of Carbon, More than Plants Can Absorb 1216.rtfScientists Have Long Feared Soil Climate ‘Feedback’. Now It’s Happening. 1116.rtf'It's a Lit Fuse -' Release of Ancient Carbon from Melting Permafrost Measured 0816.rtfForest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616.rtf - Northern (boreal) forest fires put carbon in the air not only from standing trees, but also from peat, while they thaw permafrost, for still more carbon emissions.Permafrost Soil under North Slope Lakes Is about to Thaw 0616.rtfNew ‘Gateway to the Underworld’ Crater in Siberia Warns of Warming Planet 0616.rtfWe Could Be Underestimating Arctic Methane Emissions 1215.rtfHere’s How Much of Alaska’s Permafrost Could Melt 1215.rtfRunaway Global Warming Becomes a Concern, as Permafrost Melts 1115.rtfPermafrost Warming in Parts of Alaska ‘Is Accelerating' 1015.rtfPermafrost Methane Release Could Trigger Dangerous Global Warming 1015.rtfMassive Wildfires Transform Siberian Paradise (by Lake Baikal) into Disaster Area 0815.rtf - Thawed permafrost burns, sending CO2 into the air.Alaska's Permafrost Threatened by Intense Fires as Climate Changes 0815.rtfBeneath Alaskan Wildfires, a Hidden Threat- Long-Frozen Carbon's Thaw 0715.rtfThawing Arctic Carbon Threatens ‘Runaway' Global Warming 0515.rtfMicrobes Play Villainous Role in Arctic Climate Change 0415.rtfThawing Arctic Soils May Release 10 x the Carbon That Burning Fossil Fuels Did 0415.rtfWorld's Plants and Soils to Switch from Carbon Sink to Source by 2100 - 0415.rtfPermafrost Holds Key to Release of Trapped Carbon 0415.rtfScientists Confirm Arctic Could Become Major New Carbon Emissions Source 0415.rtfRussian Scientists Blame Climate Change for Mysterious Siberia Craters 0315.rtfSiberian Crater Saga Is More Widespread and Scarier Than Anyone Thought 0215.rtfClimate Change Is Accelerating the Melting of Siberia 0215.rtfSiberian Methane Release is on the Rise 1214.rtfMelting Permafrost Threatens Infrastructure, Homes 1214.rtfTracking the Fate of Ancient Carbon in the Siberian Arctic 1114.rtfPermafrost Carbon Emissions Measured - a Whole Other Problem 1014.rtfMelting Permafrost May Stabilize Global Long-Term Temperatures 0714.rtfArctic Methane Emissions ‘Certain to Trigger Warming’ 0514.rtfHow Taking the 'Perma' Out of Permafrost Could Accelerate Global Warming 0414.rtfAlaska Sinks, as Climate Change Thaws Permafrost 1213.rtfAntarctic Permafrost Drove PETM 0412.pdfCarbon Above Ground vs Below in Sweden Plots.jpgPolicy Implications of Warming Permafrost - UN, Schaefer 0413.pdfWarming Spike - Siberian Stalagmites Show Permafrost Peril 0613.rtfPermafrost Thawing Grows 0709.rtfPermafrost Methane Release Accelerated 0906.rtfCarbon in Permafrost 0307.rtfTicking Arctic Carbon Bomb May Be Bigger Than Thought 1212.rtfThawing Permafrost May Be Huge Emissions Source 0213.rtfUN Fears Permafrost Thaw Means Runaway Warming 1112.rtfThawing Permafrost Led to Extreme Global Warming 0412.rtfStanford Arctic Thawing Detection Tool 0213.rtfWarming Speeds Tundra Carbon Release 0809.rtfSurvey of Permafrost Thaw & Carbon Release 0213.pdfSqueezing Carbon Balloon - Kane 1112.pdfSlumping Arctic Soils Emit Significant CO2 0213.rtfSiberian Tundra Methane Time Bomb 1110.rtfSiberian Permafrost Thaw Warning from Paleo Cave Data 0213.rtfPermafrost Thaw CH4 Release Complex 0509.rtfPermafrost Methane Emissions Up 31% 0110.rtfPermafrost Emissions to Accelerate Warming Beyond Previous Projections 1211.rtfPermafrost Carbon to Emit Up to 508 Pg by 2100, Warm Earth 1.69°C 0912.rtfPeat Under the Icy North 1209.rtfPeat CO2 Emissions & Credits 1109.rtfMethane Releases Could Push Earth Past Tipping Point by 2030 0711.rtfThawing Permafrost to Double Carbon in Air 0113.rtfMacDougall Permafrost Carbon Emissions, Supplement 0912.pdfMacDougall Permafrost Carbon Emissions to 2300 0912.pdfHow Much Carbon Is Released into the Atmosphere by Thawing Permafrost 0113.rtfHartley 2012 Swedish Plots 1112.pdf - This complements and discusses Kane's study, in the same edition of Nature Climate Change.Carbon in Permafrost 4x Cum Emissions 0709.pdfAt the Edge of Disaster 1112.rtfArctic Permafrost Methane Releases Set Records 0310.rtfArctic Meltdown Poses Global Threat 0309.rtfAntarctic May Host Methane Stores 0812.rtf

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost - UN, Schaefer 0413.pdf - 38 pp

Policy Implications of Warming Permafrost - UN, Schaefer 0413.pdf

About 24% of Northern Hemisphere land surface was covered by permafrost in 1997. See north polar-view map at left. Soil carbon content tends to be greater toward the poles, where permafrost is most prevalent (and probably deeper).

Permafrost regions contain 1,700-1,900 trillion tonnes of carbon (to 1 meter deep), in the form of frozen organic matter, nearly 2 x that currently in the atmosphere (Tarnocai et al. 2009, updated by Hugelius et al. 2012).

This model projection indicates a 59% loss in near-surface permafrost area by 2100 for the IPCC A1B scenario. The dark grey regions show where taliks may form and permafrost in the top 15 meters of soil may completely thaw (Schaefer et al. 2011).

CO2 and methane (CH4) emissions from thawing permafrost can continue for decades or even centuries, as seen in this plot of estimated annual permafrost emissions in CO2 equivalent for the IPCC A1B scenario. Here, anthropogenic emissions stop in 2100, but permafrost CO2 and methane emissions continue well past 2200 (Schaefer et al. 2011).

Peak permafrost emissions are ~9% of today's human emissions (33 Gt/yr).

IPCC 5th Assessment, Technical Summary

Northern Hemisphere total from US National Climate Assessment, 2013

Projection for average yearly ground temperature at 3.3-foot (1-meter) depth over time, if heat-trapping gases continue to grow (higher A2 emissions scenario), and if they are substantially reduced (lower B1 emissions scenario).

Blue shades represent areas below freezing (where permafrost is present at the surface), while yellow and red shades represent areas above freezing (permafrost-free at the surface) (Markon et al. 2012).

Permafrost: MacDougall

MacDougall Permafrost Carbon Emissions to 2300 0912.pdf

Changes in the size of each Earth system carbon pool in response to the addition of permafrost carbon to the UVic ESCM.

That is, the difference in the size of each carbon pool between simulations with and without permafrost carbon. All values are relative to the size of the frozen permafrost carbon pool. A summation of all the pools adds up to 100% for each year.

Results are given for two emissions pathways (DEPs 4.5 and 8.5) and for 3 climate sensitivities to a doubling of CO2 (2.0, 3.0, and 4.5°C). Soil layers that thaw, but are subsequently returned to a permafrost state, continue to be administered by the active soil carbon pool, leading to the apparent high rate of transfer of carbon to the active soil carbon pool in the 20th century.

Permafrost (not including whatever is under the ice in Greenland and Antarctica) holds about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does today. In the worst case shown, if current net carbon sinks fail, atmospheric CO2 levels could double from permafrost alone. Then add the effect of human carbon emissions.

Strangely enough, the additional temperature effect of permafrost emissions is not highest in the highest human emission scenario (DEP 8.5), but in the intermediate scenarios. The simplest reason is that CO2 in the air warms the air at a diminishing rate; with more CO2 molecules in the air, the chances are higher that one at a lower altitude will intercept outgoing radiation before one at a higher altitude gets a chance.

MacDougall Permafrost Carbon Emissions, Supplement 0912.pdf

Graphs of modeled future permafrost extent anomaly in CO2 concentration with respect to baseline runs with no permafrost carbon, for each DEP. Which climate sensitivity is assumed in not clear.

Squeezing Carbon Balloon - Kane 1112.pdf - for 2 adjacent plots in northern Sweden

The tundra-heath stores about 7.1 kilograms of carbon per square meter (6.2+0.8), while the birch forest stores about 4.6 kg (2.1+2.5) of carbon / sq m. The tundra-heath plot is on same hillside as the birch forest, 4 kilometers southeast and 190 meters higher.

As tundra systems give way to birch forest, more ecosystem carbon is in aboveground pools, but with a net loss of total ecosystem carbon. Below-ground carbon pools dwarf above-ground pools, especially if one considers carbon deeper in the soil….

PETM Permafrost

Thawing Permafrost to Double Carbon in Air 0113.rtf - summary of study below

Antarctic May Host Methane Stores 0812.rtf

"Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend. The first and largest of these events ... (PETM) is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification and an increase in global temperatue of about 5°C within a few thousand years."
"...the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost. This massive carbon reservoir had the potential to repeatedly release thousands of [billions of tonnes] of carbon to the atmosphere-ocean system, once a … threshold had been reached...."

"These results show the potential for high-latitude climate forcing to trigger massive terrestrial carbon release, initiating positive warming feedbacks that can account for the sudden and high elevations of past hyperthermals."

(Xerophytic plants, such as cactus, are adapted to live with very little water.)

At 400 ppm (not shown), global mean surface temperature is ~14.6°C, about the same as today. At 900 ppm CO2 (top & middle 4 panels of 6), global mean surface temperature is 6°C warmer than today and Antarctic summers are too warm to allow glaciation. But ~9/10 as much permafrost remains in high latitudes of both hemispheres (top panel, not middle) as in Earth's total modern inventory, NOT counting modern Greenland and Antarctica, where most permafrost was then.
In the model, the warming-permafrost positive feedback loop eliminates 97-98% of the initial permafrost inventory (bottom 2 panels), releasing ~3,400 billion tons af carbon within 10,000 years [~10 times what humans have released from fossil fuels]. This raises global mean surface temperature another 6°C, leaving 2,680 ppm of CO2 in the air (see bottom left panel).

In the bottom panel, which features 2,680 ppm CO2 and is ~12°C warmer than today, dry vegetation types (scrub and cactus) cover most of Africa (replacing much savanna), South America (replacing savanna and tropical deciduous woodland), and Southeast Asia (replacing tropical broadleaf forest). Warm and temperate deciduous and mixed deciduous-conifer forests cover much of Antarctica and most of Siberia and Canada, replacing most cold conifer forests.