Permafrost

2022-2024 Articles

Most Earth System Models Are Missing Permafrost, a Key Part of Climate Change 0124

Greater Snowfall Speeds the Melting of Arctic Tundra 0823 - It insulates the permafrost underneath it from the very cold air of winter, so that the permafrost thaws earlier or deeper in the warmer seasons.

Reeling Arctic Glaciers Are Leaving Bubbling Methane in Their Wake 0723

Scientists Now Know Why Methane Mysteriously Surged during Lockdowns 0223

Rapid Thawing of World’s Permafrost Is a Big Climate Change Problem 1222

How the Climate Crisis Is Transforming the Arctic Permafrost 1122

‘Imminent’ Tipping Point Threatens Europe’s Permafrost Peatlands 0322 - Shrinking permafrost area, 4 emission scenarios: RCP 2.6, 4.5, 7.0 and 8.5.  Higher RCPs are higher emission scenarios, 2.0 is the lowest modelled.  On the maps, blue is more permafrost than tan or gray.  As emissions increase, permafrost becomes less widespread, or patchier.

The Great Siberian Thaw 0122 - In-depth history and analysis

Large Loss of CO2 in Winter Observed across the Northern Permafrost Region - Summary 1019

Permafrost Is Warming Around the Globe, a Problem for Climate Change 0119

Arctic Permafrost Cauldron 0918 - Much of the carbon emitted is really old, many thousands, even millions of years.

2014-2018 Articles

Melting Permafrost Could Hasten Exceeding 1.5 and 2°C Warming Targets 0918

Coastal Erosion in the Arctic Intensifies Global Warming 0918

Alaskan Permafrost Flipped from Carbon Sink to Carbon Source 0618

Some Arctic Ground Is No Longer Freezing – in Winter 0818

The Arctic’s Carbon Bomb Might Be Even More Potent than We Thought 0318

Ancient Carbon Coming from Arctic Soil Might Be Fine, Might Be Terrible 0318

Is There a Ticking Time Bomb under the Arctic? 0118

Unearthing the Secrets of Soil 1117

Giant Craters in Canada's Melting Permafrost Impacting Climate Change 0817

Alaska’s Permafrost Is Thawing 0817

Methane Seeps Out as Arctic Permafrost Starts to Resemble Swiss Cheese 0717

Arctic Stronghold of World’s Seeds Flooded after Permafrost Melts 0517

Thawing Alaska Permafrost Sends Autumn CO2 Emissions Surging 0517

Permafrost Thaw in Canadian Arctic Is Sign of Global Trend 0417

Global Warming Could Thaw Far More Permafrost Than Expected 0417 - unfrozen area increases a lot

Siberia's Growing 'Doorway to Hell' Offers Clues on Climate Change 0317

Massive Permafrost Thaw in Canada Portends Huge Carbon Release 0217

Arctic Soils Set to Release Lots of Carbon, More than Plants Can Absorb 1216

'It's a Lit Fuse -' Release of Ancient Carbon from Melting Permafrost Measured 0816

Forest Fires Can Heat Up the Whole Planet 0616 - Northern (boreal) forest fires put carbon in the air not only from standing trees, but also from peat, while they thaw permafrost, for still more carbon emissions.

Permafrost Soil under North Slope Lakes Is about to Thaw 0616

New ‘Gateway to the Underworld’ Crater in Siberia Warns of Warming Planet 0616

We Could Be Underestimating Arctic Methane Emissions 1215

Here’s How Much of Alaska’s Permafrost Could Melt 1215

Runaway Global Warming Becomes a Concern, as Permafrost Melts 1115

Permafrost Warming in Parts of Alaska ‘Is Accelerating' 1015

Permafrost Methane Release Could Trigger Dangerous Global Warming 1015

Massive Wildfires by Lake Baikal Send Soot to Arctic, Greenland 0815  Thawed permafrost burns, sending CO2 into the air.

Alaska's Permafrost Threatened by Intense Fires as Climate Changes 0815

Beneath Alaskan Wildfires, a Hidden Threat- Long-Frozen Carbon's Thaw 0715

Thawing Arctic Carbon Threatens ‘Runaway' Global Warming 0515

Obama Presents Climate Change as Hazard to Your Health 0415

Microbes Play Villainous Role in Arctic Climate Change 0415

Thawing Arctic Soils May Release 10 x the Carbon That Burning Fossil Fuels Did 0415

Permafrost Holds Key to Release of Trapped Carbon 0415

Scientists Confirm Arctic Could Become Major New Carbon Emissions Source 0415

Russian Scientists Blame Climate Change for Mysterious Siberia Craters 0315

Siberian Crater Saga Is More Widespread and Scarier Than Anyone Thought 0215

Climate Change Is Accelerating the Melting of Siberia 0215

Siberian Methane Release is on the Rise 1214

Melting Permafrost Threatens Infrastructure, Homes 1214

Tracking the Fate of Ancient Carbon in the Siberian Arctic 1114

Permafrost Carbon Emissions Measured - a Whole Other Problem 1014

Melting Permafrost May Stabilize Global Long-Term Temperatures 0714

Arctic Methane Emissions ‘Certain to Trigger Warming’ 0514

How Taking the 'Perma' Out of Permafrost Could Accelerate Global Warming 0414

Siberian Methane Release is on the Rise 1214

Melting Permafrost Threatens Infrastructure, Homes 1214

Tracking the Fate of Ancient Carbon in the Siberian Arctic 1114

Permafrost Carbon Emissions Measured - a Whole Other Problem 1014

Melting Permafrost May Stabilize Global Long-Term Temperatures 0714

Arctic Methane Emissions ‘Certain to Trigger Warming’ 0514

How Taking the 'Perma' Out of Permafrost Could Accelerate Global Warming 0414

     About 24% of Northern Hemisphere land surface was covered by permafrost in 1997.  See north polar-view map at left.  Soil carbon content tends to be greater toward the poles, where permafrost is most prevalent (and probably deeper).

Permafrost: MacDougall

Changes in the size of each Earth system carbon pool in response to the addition of permafrost carbon to the UVic ESCM.  That is, the difference in the size of each carbon pool between simulations with and without permafrost carbon.  All values are relative to the size of the frozen permafrost carbon pool.  A summation of all the pools adds up to 100% for each year.  Results are given for two emissions pathways (DEPs 4.5 and 8.5) and for 3 climate sensitivities to a doubling of CO2 (2.0, 3.0, and 4.5°C).  Soil layers that thaw, but are subsequently returned to a permafrost state, continue to be administered by the active soil carbon pool, leading to the apparent high rate of transfer of carbon to the active soil carbon pool in the 20th century.

     Permafrost (not including whatever is under the ice in Greenland and Antarctica) holds about twice as much carbon as the atmosphere does today.  In the worst case shown, if current net carbon sinks fail, atmospheric CO2 levels could double from permafrost alone.  Then add the effect of human carbon emissions.

     Strangely enough, the additional temperature effect of permafrost emissions is not highest in the highest human emission scenario (DEP 8.5), but in the intermediate scenarios.  The simplest reason is that CO2 in the air warms the air at a diminishing rate; with more CO2 molecules in the air, the chances are higher that one at a lower altitude will intercept outgoing radiation before one at a higher altitude gets a chance.

Permafrost Carbon Emissions, Supplement - MacDougall 0912 - PDF

Graphs of modeled future permafrost extent

       Anomaly in CO2 concentration with respect to baseline runs with no permafrost carbon, for each DEP.  Which climate sensitivity is assumed in not clear.

PETM Permafrost

Thawing Permafrost Led to Extreme Global Warming 0412 - summary of study below

Antarctic Permafrost Drove PETM - DeConto 0412 - PDF

     "Between about 55.5 and 52 million years ago, Earth experienced a series of sudden and extreme warming events (hyperthermals) superimposed on a long-term warming trend.  The first and largest of these events ... (PETM) is characterized by a massive input of carbon, ocean acidification and an increase in global temperatue of about 5°C within a few thousand years."
    "...the magnitude and timing of the PETM and subsequent hyperthermals can be explained by the orbitally triggered decomposition of soil organic carbon in circum-Arctic and Antarctic terrestrial permafrost.  This massive carbon reservoir had the potential to repeatedly release thousands of [billions of tonnes] of carbon to the atmosphere-ocean system, once a … threshold had been reached...."

    "These results show the potential for high-latitude climate forcing to trigger massive terrestrial carbon release, initiating positive warming feedbacks that can account for the sudden and high elevations of past hyperthermals."

(Xerophytic plants, such as cactus, are adapted to live with very little water.)

     At 400 ppm (not shown), global mean surface temperature is ~14.6°C, about the same as today.  At 900 ppm CO2 (top & middle 4 panels of 6), global mean surface temperature is 6°C warmer than today and Antarctic summers are too warm to allow glaciation.  But ~9/10 as much permafrost remains in high latitudes of both hemispheres (top panel, not middle) as in Earth's total modern inventory, NOT counting modern Greenland and Antarctica, where most permafrost was then.
    In the model, the warming-permafrost positive feedback loop eliminates 97-98% of the initial permafrost inventory (bottom 2 panels), releasing ~3,400 billion tons af carbon within 10,000 years [~10 times what humans have released from fossil fuels].  This raises global mean surface temperature another 6°C, leaving 2,680 ppm of CO2 in the air (see bottom left panel).

     In the bottom panel, which features 2,680 ppm CO2 and is ~12°C warmer than today, dry vegetation types (scrub and cactus) cover most of Africa (replacing much savanna), South America (replacing savanna and tropical deciduous woodland), and Southeast Asia (replacing tropical broadleaf forest).  Warm and temperate deciduous and mixed deciduous-conifer forests cover much of Antarctica and most of Siberia and Canada, replacing most cold conifer forests.

Section Map: Carbon Emissions