The tables below are from Gene R. H. Fry, Albedo Changes Drive 4.9 to 9.4°C Global Warming by 2400, Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change, 2:1. 2020

     Below is later analysis by Dr. Fry, flowing from "Albedo Changes Drive 4.9 to 9.4°C Global Warming by 2400".  Some climate scientists observe that temperature rise is proportional to cumulative global CO2 emissions.  However, the fit is not perfect; in fact, it is a poorer fit than using also methane and especially sulfate levels.  (See Sulfates page later in this section.)  The good fit with cumulative CO2 masks the better fit when other factors, especially albedo changes, are considered.

     The 5 biggest factors affecting global temperatures over the past 40+ years.

     The horizontal axis is cumulatifve CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.  The graph shows how albedo factors, based partly in the work above, have affected global temperatures.

     The graph "demonstrates" the 95% explanatory power between global surface temperature change and cumulative CO2 emissions.  However, including sulfates increases the explanatory power to over 98%.  See Albedo page.

Daily Surface Air Temperature, World (until a recent day below) updates are available at

update by Dr. James Hansen

2023-2024 Articles

The Mother of All Climate Feedbacks? – Ocean Heating 0524

Earth's Warmest March Is 10th Straight Record Month 0424

Scientists Divided over Whether Record Heat Is Acceleration of Climate Crisis 0324

‘Red Alert’- Last Year Was Hottest on Record by Clear Margin - WMO 0324

More Climate Records Fall in World's Warmest February 0324

The Planet Just Shattered Heat Records for the 9th Month in a Row 0324

Winter Heat Waves Are Now a Thing. How to Make Sense of Them. 0224

In 2024, the World Experienced the Warmest January on Record 0224

Earth Just Marked 12 Months above 1.5°C - 0224

Where the World Warmed the Most in Earth’s Hottest Year 0124.rtf

Scientists Knew 2023’s Heat Would Be Historic — but Not by This Much 0124

Earth Is Warming So Fast, It Could Cross Key 1.5°C Limit in 2024 - 1223

Open Secret at Climate Talks - the 1.5° C Temperature Goal Is Mostly Gone 1223

Is Climate Change Speeding Up? Here’s What Jim Hansen, Scientists Say. 1223

‘No One Is Safe from Climate Change’ after Hottest 12 Months Ever Recorded 1123

The World Briefly Smashed through 2°C Warming Limit for 1st Time Ever 1123

2023 'Virtually Certain' to Be Warmest in 125,000 Years 1123

Heat Waves in the Ground Are Getting More Extreme—and Perilous 1023

September’s Global Temperature Spike Has Most Climate Scientists Worried 1023

Scorching August Sets World on Path toward Perhaps the Hottest Year on Record 0923

This Summer Was Hotter for Almost Everyone in the World 0923

Amid Record Heat, Even Indoor Factory Workers Enter Dangerous Terrain 0823

Click for 23 more

‘Off-the-Charts Records’ - Heat at High End of Projections, Impacts Worse 0823

Heat Waves Aren’t Just Getting Hotter, They’re Stickier Too 0723

July Was the Hottest Month on Record 0823

2023 Is on Track to Be the Hottest Year on Record 0823

‘Era of Global Boiling Has Arrived,’ Says UN Chief 0723

We Are Living through Earth’s Hottest Month on Record 0723

When It Comes to Climate Change, There's No Such Thing as a New Normal 0723

7 Eye-Popping Numbers from the Worldwide Heat Wave 0723

Heat Waves Grip 3 Continents, as Climate Change Warms Earth 0723

This June Was the Hottest on Record and July Is Getting Hotter 0723

Last Week Was Record Hot, Led by Sea Surface, Record Antarctic Sea Ice Loss 0723

Earth Reaches Hottest Day Ever Recorded, 3 Days in a Row 0723

Why a Sudden Surge of Broken Heat Records Is Scaring Scientists 0723

Climate Change Is ‘Out of Control’ after Likely Hottest Week on Record - UN 0723

New Record for Hottest Day Ever Will Be Broken, Again and Again. 0723

El Niño Is Here and the World Must Prepare for More Extreme Heat, WMO Warns 0723

Earth Keeps Breaking Temperature Records due to Global Warming 0723

World's Hottest Day since Records Began 0723

Record World Land, Sea Temperatures, as Climate Change Fuels Extremes 0723

The World Just Saw Its Hottest Early June on Record 0623

Fears of Hottest Year on Record as Global Temperatures Spike 0623

The Unexpected Force That May Make Us Get Less Sleep 0523 - nighttime warming

How Pesticides Intensify Global Warming 0123

Earth’s Temperature Could Near Danger Point with Return of El Niño 0123

Warning of Unprecedented Heat Waves, as El Niño Set to Return in 2023 - 0123

Earth’s Climate Shatters Heat Records. 5 Charts Show How. 1023 - One of the charts is shown below.  See original URL for 4 other charts.

Where Dangerous Heat Is Surging 0923  -  Wet bulb temperatures at or above 35°C (95°F) are only survivable for 6 hours - in the shade.  The body is no longer able to shed heat by sweating.

     Wet bulb temperatures above 32°C (89.6°F) are very difficult to live in and especially to work in.  Productivity losses are great and deaths can occur within hours, especially in work outdoors.  Chronic exposure causing permanent heat damage to organs is not uncommon.  Even a little below 32°C (89.6° F) wet-bulb, work sustained for days can permanently damage the kidneys and even the heart.

     A wet bulb temperature of 35°C (95°F) is generally considered lethal within 6 hours, even in the shade, as the human body cannot shed heat fast enough to break its mounting fever.  Jacobabad and Dubai already face these temperatures a few days per year.  With 35°C, only a cooled indoor human environment permits longer-term survival.  It will get worse there.  Meanwhile, Phoenix will increase such days from 1 to 12 per year by 2030.

Interactive Map: Daily MaximumWet-Bulb Temperature (°C)


for the interactive version of the map below.

     On March 12, 2024 for example, places with wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C or more included (1-3) Choix, Sinaloa; Nacajuca, Tabasco; and Matlapa, San Luis Potosí, all Mexico; (4) Maracaibo, Zulia, Venezuela; (5) Yannarie, Western Australia; (6-7) Jacobabad, and Dehra Ismail Khan Tehsil, Khyber, both Pakistan; (8) Hisar, Haryana, northwest India; (9) Digdaga, UAE; and (10-11) Jeddah and Damman, Saudi Arabia.

The 10 Hottest Days Ever, in Early July, Put People and Livelihoods at Risk 0723 (+ 5 more days in mid-July, also warmer than record before July 2023.)

Graphs are from Dr. James Hansen's monthly temperature analysis updates.

Black areas are uninhabitable now.  Cross-hatched areas may be uninhabitable by 2050.

Will Tonga Volcanic Eruption Affect Global Climate? 0122 - not much.  Tonga’s SO2 emissions were only 2% of Pinatubo’s.  Lots of H2O went up in the air, though.

Earth's Energy Imbalance Doubled from 2005 to 2019 - 0621 - take 3 - The rate of heating doubled, in the air and ocean.

Earth Is Now Trapping an ‘Unprecedented’ Amount of Heat, NASA Says 0621 - take 2 on study - Earth’s heat gain roughly doubled from 2005 to 2019.  That’s very bad.

The Fundamental Climate Metric, Earth’s Energy Imbalance, Takes Worrying Turn 0621 - take 1 on study

2020 tied 2016 for Earth's hottest year on record.

Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920 - Abstract. - von Schuckmann, Hansen et al.  Excerpt+: Earth gained 358 zJ over 1970-2018.  This 48-year total is about 600 times annual human energy use, or 10-20 times cumulative human energy use.

     Over this period, the oceans account for 89% (52% in the upper 700 meters, 28% 700-2,000 meters deep, and 9% below that); land (continental crust) 6%; melting ice 4%; and atmosphere 1%.  Over the shorter and most recent 2010-2018 period, these figures were 90% ocean (52-30-8%); 5% land; 3% ice; and 2% atmosphere.

     The rate of heat gain was 0.87±1.2 Watts / sq meter over 2010-2018.  There have been various comparable estimates before and since, as shown in the diagram and spreadsheet below left.  0.47 in the diagram below right is for 1970-2018; 0.87 is for 2010-2018.

     In order to stabilize Earth’s surface temperature (at a level substantially higher than today’s unless all excess CO2 is removed immediately), Earth’s CO2 level must be reduced from 412 ppm to 353 ppm.

Climate Change Continues ‘Unabated' despite COVID-19 Lockdowns 0920 - Emissions heading toward pre-pandemic levels, remarkable heat wave in Siberia, 1 in 4 chance of passing 1.5°C by 2025

Global Surface Air Temperature for March 2020 - 0420 - Emphasis on Europe, from Copernicus satellite data.  Near record warm.

2019 Was Another Record Year for Ocean Temperatures, Data Show 0120 - 2019, then 2018, 2017, 2015, 2016.  2016 featured less heat in ocean, more in air.

54 more 2019-2022 Articles

Past 8 Years Were the 8 Hottest Ever, Says UN 1122

Earth Is on Track to Warm Above 2°C despite Climate Action 1122

Extreme Heat Could Make Parts of Asia, Africa Uninhabitable in Decades 1022

Hotter Summers Are Baking the Water Out of Soil, at Unprecedented Rates 1022

Northern Hemisphere Extreme Summer Drought 20 X Likelier by Climate Change 1022

Earth Just Experienced Its Warmest or 5th Warmest Summer on Record 0922

Australia Fires Damaged Ozone Layer, Caused Major Warming 0822

Extreme Heat Is Slamming the World's 3 Biggest Economies All at Once 0822

The Year Summer Got Serious 0722

Climate Change Is Making Heat Waves around the Globe More Frequent 0722

World Will Not Avoid 1.5°C Global Warming 'Tipping Point', Researchers Warn 0622

Sweltering Streets - 100s of Homeless Die in Heat 0622

The Last 7 Years Are Earth’s Warmest on Record, as It Approaches 1.5°C - 0122

2021 Ended as 5th-Hottest Year, with Push from Spiking Methane 0122

2021 Ranks as 5th Hottest Year, With More Data Coming Soon 0122

Killer Heat Forces Cities to Adapt Now or Suffer 0821

Earth's Hottest Month on Record - the US West Burned while the East Flooded 0821

Nowhere Is Ready for This Heat 0621

Global Temperatures Are Cooler in 2021 than Other Recent Years 0521

NASA Direct Measurements, including Aerosols, Show Humans Cause Climate Change 0421

Earth Hasn’t Warmed This Fast in 10s of Millions of Years 0920

Northern Hemiphere Endures Its Hottest Summer on Record 0920

Extreme Heat Made August the 4th-Warmest on Record 0920

Death Valley Soars to 130°, Potentially Earth’s Hottest since at Least 1931 - 0820

July 2020 Was 1 of Earth's 3 Warmest July’s on Record 0820

Last Decade Was Earth's Hottest on Record as Climate Crisis Accelerates 0820

1st Half of 2020 Was 2nd-Warmest on Record 0720

World Could Hit 1.5° Warming Threshold by 2024 – UN 0720

June 2020 Tied for 2nd Hottest on Record 0720

2020 Likely to Be the Warmest Year on Record Globally 0620

Last Month Was the Hottest May on Record 0620

April Global Temperatures Tie Record, with Highest CO2 Levels in 3 Million Years 0520

11 of 12 Hottest Years Have Occurred since 2000 - 0420

2020 Expected to Be Earth's Warmest Year on Record 0420

January Was the Most Unusually Warm Month Ever Recorded without El Niño 0220

January 2020 Becomes Earth’s Warmest January on Record 0220

2019 Was 2nd Hottest Year on Record 0120

Decade of ‘Exceptional' Heat Likely to Be Hottest on Record 1219

We’re Living through Earth’s 2nd-Hottest Year, NOAA Finds 1119

Earth Sizzles through October, as Another Month Is the Warmest on Record 1119

Earth Is Having Its 2nd-Warmest Year on Record in 2019 - 1019

Earth Just Had Its Hottest September, as 2019 Heads for the Record Books 1019

The Northern Hemisphere Just Had Its Warmest Summer on Record 0919

NOAA Data Confirms July Was Hottest Month Ever Recorded 0819

July Confirmed as Hottest Month Recorded 0819

July Was Earth’s Hottest Month on Record, Beating or Tying July 2016 - 0819

July 2019 Will Likely Be the Hottest Month Ever Measured 0719

July on Course to Be Hottest Month Ever, Say Climate Scientists 0719

Earth Just Had Its Hottest June on Record, on Track for Warmest July 0719

2019 On Track to Be Earth's 3rd Warmest Year on Record, NOAA Says 0619

Satellite Confirms Key NASA Temperature Data - Earth Is Warming – Fast 0419

2018 Was the 4th-Warmest Year on Record, NOAA and NASA Reveal 0219

2018 Was 4th Warmest Year on Record, in More Evidence of New Normal 0119

Last Year Was 4th Warmest, Greenhouse Gases Up - EU's Copernicus 0119

Potentially Fatal Combinations of Humidity and Heat Emerging across the Globe 0520 - See wet bulb temperatures.  At the original URL (here), zoom in and out for more detail on an updating map, including all place names, dates, and wet bulb termpreatures recorded.  Using hourly data insteada of daily average data, it appears that 10 places have already equalled or exceeded the 35°C threshold of human survivability (lethal - within 6 hours - wet bulb temperature).  These include 3 in Mexico, 2 each in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and 1 each in India, Australia, and Venezuela.  A wet-bulb temperature calculator is here.

State of the Climate - How the World Warmed in 2017 - 0218 - record heat overall and in the oceans beneath the surface.

Draft National Climate Assessment Finds Drastic Climate Change Impact on US 0817
    The full 545-page draft is available on the Overviews page.
    2 quotes are "Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era.  There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record, that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)”
    “Atmospheric CO2 levels have now passed 400 ppm, last seen during the Pliocene, approximately 3 million years ago, when global mean temperatures were 3.6° to 6.3°F (2° to 3.5°C) higher than preindustrial (1750) and sea levels were 66 ± 33 feet (20 ± 10 meters) higher than today. (High confidence)"

Rising Lake Temperatures May Worsen Algae Blooms 1215 - warming 0.61° per decade in world’s 235 largest lakes

104 more 2015-2018 Articles

Very Hot and Very Dry Conditions Have Doubled Worldwide 1118

Past 4 Years Are Hottest on Record 1118

2018 Is Shaping Up to Be the 4th-Hottest Year.  Yet We’re Still Not Prepared for Global Warming. 0818

Halfway to Boiling - the City at 50°C - 0818

Science Says Record Heat, Fires Worsened by Climate Change 0718

How Record Heat Wreaked Havoc on 4 Continents 0718

Extreme Global Weather Is 'the Face of Climate Change’ 0718

2018 Is on Pace to Be the 4th-Hottest Year on Record 0718

Summer of Extreme Temperatures Continues, to the Beat of Climate Change 0718

The Big Heat Wave - from Algeria to the Arctic.  But What’s the Cause? 0718

The Global Heat Wave That's Been Killing Us 0718

What Climate Change Looks Like In 2018 - 0718

Red-Hot Planet - All-time Heat Records Set All over the World Last Week 0718

Last 3 Years Were Hottest on Record, Severe Weather Hits 2018 - U.N. 0318

Pyeong Chang Climate Extremes 0218

2017 Was Once Again One of the Hottest on Record 0118

2017 Was the Hottest Non-El Niño Year on Record, Thanks to Global Warming 0118

2017 Will Rank among Earth’s 5 Warmest Years, Likely 2nd - 1217

2016’s Record Heat Not Possible without Global Warming, Study Says 1217

If Oceans Stopped Absorbing Climate Change’s Heat, Land Would Average 122°F - 1117

Arctic Data Shows No Pause in Global Warming 1117

2017 Set to Be 1 of 3 Hottest Years on Record 1117

Right-Wing Media Could Not Be More Wrong about 1.5°C Carbon Budget Paper 0917

Global Warming May Be Occurring More Slowly than Previously Thought 0917

Last Month Was Hottest July, and Hottest Month, on Record – NASA 0817

July Ranks as 2nd Hottest Month on Record - NOAA 0817

At Midway Point, 2017 Is 2nd-Hottest Year on Record 0717

May Continues a Ridiculous Warm Streak for the Planet 0617

Warm Arctic Fuels 2nd-Warmest April on Record 0517

March Was 2nd Hottest on Record Globally 0417

State of the Warming Climate in 2016 - 'Truly Uncharted Territory’ 0317

February Was 2nd Hottest on Record, despite Flat Global CO2 Emissions 0317

Humans Causing Climate to Change 170 Times Faster than Natural Forces 0217

Extreme Heat Wave Days Already Hitting Poorer Nations More than Rich 0317

Climate Changing Faster than at Any Time since End of Ice Age - Shell 1991 - 0217

Independent Study Confirms NOAA's Conclusion - Earth Is Getting Warmer 0217

We May Be Closer than We Thought to Dangerous Climate Thresholds 0117

We’re Now Breaking Global Temperature Records Once Every 3 Years 0117

Global Warming Never Paused, Could Soon Accelerate - NASA GISS Director 0117

2016 Officially Declared Hottest Year on Record 0117

Already Debunked Global Warming 'Hiatus' Gets Another Dunking 0117

Study Confirms NOAA Finding of Faster Global Warming 0117

2016 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record, UN Says 1116

2011-2015  Was the Hottest 5-Year Period on Record 1116

Another Month, Another Broken Global Temperature Record 1016

Earth Is Hottest in 115,000 Years, due to Human-Driven Climate Change 1016

We Just Lived through the Hottest Summer in Recorded History 0916

Earth's Unprecedented Warm Streak Continues, as More Records Fall - NOAA 0916

August Ties July as Hottest Month Ever on Record 0916

Earth Sets Record for Hottest August, Extending Warm Streak Another Month 0916

La Niña Fizzles, Making Record Warm Global Temperatures More Likely 0916

Earth Is Warming at a Pace ‘Unprecedented in 1,000 Years' – NASA 0816

Cruel Summer - Floods, Fires and Heat 0816

Earth's Hottest Month on Record Was July 2016 - 0816

2015 Set Frenzy of Climate Records 0816

Global Warming Happening Faster Than Predicted – WMO 0716

1st Half of 2016 Blows Away Temperature Records 0716

Earth's Hot Streak Continues with Warmest May since at Least 1880 - 0616

The Temperature Spiral Has an Update - to 2100.  It’s Not Pretty. 0516

2016 to Be Hottest Year Yet, as April Smashes Records 0516

March Temperature Smashes 100-Year Global Record 0416

March Was Earth's 11th-Straight Warmest Month on Record 0416

Earth Crushed Temperature Milestones This Winter, Nearing Climate Guardrail 0316

As Temperatures Soar, New Doubts Arise about Holding Warming to 2°C - 0316

Record Surge in 2016 Temperatures Adds Urgency to Climate Deal 0316

Earth’s Temperature Just Reached a Terrifying Milestone 0316

February 2016 Was the Month Warmest above Average Ever Recorded - NASA 0316

Here's What Climate Change Has Done to the Season Formerly Known as Winter 0316

Why Is 2016 Smashing Heat Records? 0316

Ted Cruz's Favorite Temperature Data Just Got a Lot Hotter, via Satellite Data Revisions 0316

Satellites Show February 2016 Temperatures Hit All-Time Highs 0316

Earth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216

2015 Was the Hottest Year.  2016 Will Likely Be Hotter. 0116

2015 Is Warmest Year on Record, NOAA and NASA Say 0116

2015 Shattered Global Temperature Record by Wide Margin 0116

Early Data Shows 2015 Blew Away Previous Record for Hottest Year 0116

Earth is Experiencing a Global Warming Spurt 0116

Met Office Says 2016 ‘Very Likely' to Be Warmest on Record 1215

2015 Likely to Be Warmest on Record, Says UN Weather Body 1115

October 2015 Becomes 1st Month 1°C Warmer than Average 1115

Warming Set to Breach 1°C Mark 1115

Earth Just Had Its Warmest September on Record (re Japan, #2 re NASA) 1015

It’s Getting Hotter 1015

Scorching Year Continues With the Hottest Summer on Record 0915

August Smashes Global Heat Record, as Giant El Niño Builds 0915

2015 Will Be the Hottest Year on Record 'by a Mile' 0815

Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815

July Added to String of Record Hot Months Globally 0815

Global Warming Seen Lurking behind This Summer’s Deadly Heat Waves 0815

Will El Niño 2015 Rival 1997, the Strongest Year on Record? 0815

Latest Forecast Suggests 'Godzilla El Niño' May Be Coming to California 0815

Killer Heat Grows Hotter around the World.   This Is Just the Beginning. 0815

Climate Models Are Even More Accurate than You Thought 0815

1st Half of 2015 Was Hottest Ever Recorded 0715

Most Extreme Weather Has Climate Change Link 0615

2015 Is Likely to Beat 2014 as the Warmest Year on Record 0615

May 2015 Global Temperature Data Continue Breaking Records 0615

New Temperature Records Highlight Global Warming's Continued Rise 0515

2015 Hottest Year to Date, Could Top 2014 Record 0415

The Climate Is Starting to Change Faster 0315

Study Monitors CO2 Levels and Earth's Outgoing Radiation from the Ground 0215

Hot January Extends Run of Record Worldwide Warmth 0215

Climate Models Don't Over-Predict Warming, Study Shows 0115

It’s Official - 2014 Was the Hottest Year - NASA, NOAA 0115

2014 Was Officially the Globe’s Hottest Year - Japan 0115

No, the Sun Isn’t Driving Global Warming 0215

2014 Set for Record Hot; Record Cold Is Thing of the Past 1114
    Sea surface temperatures seem a sure bet to set a record.  Combined sea and land temperatures are more likely than not to set a record.  Land surface temperatures are likely to be just in the top 5.

U.S., British Data Show 2014 Could Be Hottest Year on Record 1114

     Note the globe’s major cool spot is the central (and eastern) US.

Section Map: Heat