World

The tables below are from Gene R. H. Fry, Albedo Changes Drive 4.9 to 9.4°C Global Warming by 2400, Environmental Sustainability and Climate Change, 2:1. 2020

     Below is later analysis by Dr. Fry, flowing from "Albedo Changes Drive 4.9 to 9.4°C Global Warming by 2400".  Some climate scientists observe that temperature rise is proportional to cumulative global CO2 emissions.  However, the fit is not perfect; in fact, it is a poorer fit than using also methane and especially sulfate levels.  (See Sulfates page later in this section.)  The good fit with cumulative CO2 masks the better fit when other factors, especially albedo changes, are considered.

Why the Recent ‘Acceleration’ in Global Warming Is What Scientists Expect 0424

Summer of 2023 and August 2023 Were the Hottest on Record Globally 0923 - See also     # of Days, Cities with Wet-Bulb Temps > 32°C in 2050 for the daily updates.

Earth’s Climate Shatters Heat Records. 5 Charts Show How. 1023 - One of the charts is shown below.  See original URL for 4 other charts.

September Broke Global Heat Record by ‘Gobsmackingly Bananas’ Margin 1023

Where Dangerous Heat Is Surging 0923  -  Wet bulb temperatures at or above 35°C (95°F) are only survivable for 6 hours - in the shade.  The body is no longer able to shed heat by sweating.

     Wet bulb temperatures above 32°C (89.6°F) are very difficult to live in and especially to work in.  Productivity losses are great and deaths can occur within hours, especially in work outdoors.  Chronic exposure causing permanent heat damage to organs is not uncommon.  Even a little below 32°C (89.6° F) wet-bulb, work sustained for days can permanently damage the kidneys and even the heart.

Interactive Map: Daily MaximumWet-Bulb Temperature (°C)

See news.climate.columbia.edu/wp-content/data-viz/heat-humidity-map/

for the interactive version of the map below.

     On March 12, 2024 for example, places with wet-bulb temperatures of 35°C or more included (1-3) Choix, Sinaloa; Nacajuca, Tabasco; and Matlapa, San Luis Potosí, all Mexico; (4) Maracaibo, Zulia, Venezuela; (5) Yannarie, Western Australia; (6-7) Jacobabad, and Dehra Ismail Khan Tehsil, Khyber, both Pakistan; (8) Hisar, Haryana, northwest India; (9) Digdaga, UAE; and (10-11) Jeddah and Damman, Saudi Arabia.

These Places Baked the Most during Earth’s Hottest Month on Record 0823

July 2023 Is Set to Be the Hottest Month on Record 0723

Record-Breaking Global Temperatures Now Are Likely Highest in 100,000+ Years 0723

Last Month Was the Planet’s Hottest June on Record, by a Huge Margin 0723

World Sees 2nd-Hottest May in 30 Years, as Antarctic Ice Reaches New Low 0623

Black areas are uninhabitable now.  Cross-hatched areas may be uninhabitable by 2050.

Will Tonga Volcanic Eruption Affect Global Climate? 0122 - not much.  Tonga’s SO2 emissions were only 2% of Pinatubo’s.  Lots of H2O went up in the air, though.

Earth's Energy Imbalance Doubled from 2005 to 2019 - 0621 - take 3 - The rate of heating doubled, in the air and ocean.

Earth Is Now Trapping an ‘Unprecedented’ Amount of Heat, NASA Says 0621 - take 2 on study - Earth’s heat gain roughly doubled from 2005 to 2019.  That’s very bad.

The Fundamental Climate Metric, Earth’s Energy Imbalance, Takes Worrying Turn 0621 - take 1 on study

2020 tied 2016 for Earth's hottest year on record.

Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920 - Abstract. - von Schuckmann, Hansen et al.  Excerpt+: Earth gained 358 zJ over 1970-2018.  This 48-year total is about 600 times annual human energy use, or 10-20 times cumulative human energy use.

     Over this period, the oceans account for 89% (52% in the upper 700 meters, 28% 700-2,000 meters deep, and 9% below that); land (continental crust) 6%; melting ice 4%; and atmosphere 1%.  Over the shorter and most recent 2010-2018 period, these figures were 90% ocean (52-30-8%); 5% land; 3% ice; and 2% atmosphere.

     The rate of heat gain was 0.87±1.2 Watts / sq meter over 2010-2018.  There have been various comparable estimates before and since, as shown in the diagram and spreadsheet below left.  0.47 in the diagram below right is for 1970-2018; 0.87 is for 2010-2018.

     In order to stabilize Earth’s surface temperature (at a level substantially higher than today’s unless all excess CO2 is removed immediately), Earth’s CO2 level must be reduced from 412 ppm to 353 ppm.

Climate Change Continues ‘Unabated' despite COVID-19 Lockdowns 0920 - Emissions heading toward pre-pandemic levels, remarkable heat wave in Siberia, 1 in 4 chance of passing 1.5°C by 2025

Global Surface Air Temperature for March 2020 - 0420 - Emphasis on Europe, from Copernicus satellite data.  Near record warm.

2019 Was Another Record Year for Ocean Temperatures, Data Show 0120 - 2019, then 2018, 2017, 2015, 2016.  2016 featured less heat in ocean, more in air.

Potentially Fatal Combinations of Humidity and Heat Emerging across the Globe 0520 - See wet bulb temperatures.  At the original URL (here), zoom in and out for more detail on an updating map, including all place names, dates, and wet bulb termpreatures recorded.  Using hourly data insteada of daily average data, it appears that 10 places have already equalled or exceeded the 35°C threshold of human survivability (lethal - within 6 hours - wet bulb temperature).  These include 3 in Mexico, 2 each in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and 1 each in India, Australia, and Venezuela.  A wet-bulb temperature calculator is here.

Heat Wave Nudged Earth to Its Hottest June on Record 0719

State of the Climate - How the World Warmed in 2017 - 0218 - record heat overall and in the oceans beneath the surface.

Draft National Climate Assessment Finds Drastic Climate Change Impact on US 0817
    The full 545-page draft is available on the Overviews page.
    2 quotes are "Many lines of evidence demonstrate that human activities, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are primarily responsible for the observed climate changes in the industrial era.  There are no alternative explanations, and no natural cycles are found in the observational record, that can explain the observed changes in climate. (Very high confidence)”
    “Atmospheric CO2 levels have now passed 400 ppm, last seen during the Pliocene, approximately 3 million years ago, when global mean temperatures were 3.6° to 6.3°F (2° to 3.5°C) higher than preindustrial (1750) and sea levels were 66 ± 33 feet (20 ± 10 meters) higher than today. (High confidence)"

Rising Lake Temperatures May Worsen Algae Blooms 1215 - warming 0.61° per decade in world’s 235 largest lakes

 2015 Global Temperatures Are Right in Line with Climate Model Predictions 0815   

Black is modeled, color is actual.

No, the Sun Isn’t Driving Global Warming 0215

2014 Set for Record Hot; Record Cold Is Thing of the Past 1114
    Sea surface temperatures seem a sure bet to set a record.  Combined sea and land temperatures are more likely than not to set a record.  Land surface temperatures are likely to be just in the top 5.

U.S., British Data Show 2014 Could Be Hottest Year on Record 1114

     Note the globe’s major cool spot is the central (and eastern) US.

Global Warming Is Just on Pause.  It's Down to the Oceans 0713

Section Map: Heat