Economics

The Business of Climate Change - Lehman Bros 0207.pdf - Among other things, the report shows drought increasing worldwide, driven much more by faster evaporation than by less rain.

Could 4 Billion People Die at 3°C? 0726.rtf -

A long and detailed analysis of why the impacts shown shown in the matrix below do not happen at the temperatures shown in the "Climate" column.

The matrix below may best be understood as impacts that will happen with baked-in future temperature change (by more heating unleashed by reflectvity feedbacks for a given temperature - such as 2°or 3°), after we reach the temperatures shown by 2050. That is, temperatures will rise (a lot) further because of hitting 2 or 3° C. This applies to the other columns: GDP Losses, Human Mortality, Nature, and Societal.

The critiquing article begins: "July 27, 2026 – The claim that 4 billion people could die in a 3°C warmer world has become a powerful climate narrative. But what does the science actually support, and where does evidence end and speculation begin?

"Summary

"• Mortality depends on exposure, vulnerability and adaptive capacity, making precise death tolls impossible to model.

"• The 4 billion deaths at 3°C figure is not a forecast or modeled projection.

"• The estimate of 2 billion deaths at 2°C is implausible.

"• The timeframe for the 3°C / 4 billion deaths estimate is undefined.

"• The 4 billion figure is an educated worst-case estimate, not a robust scientific projection.

"• The proposition that 4 billion people or more would be dead if — and more likely, when — global warming reaches 3°C has gained some currency, mainly due to the 4DB (4 billion dead) website and associated activities.

"• Now, that is half the current global population, and on current warming trends of 0.3- 0.35°C/decade, the world will hit 3°C around 50 years from now, perhaps earlier, in part because there is little prospect of a rapid decline in fossil fuel emissions is slow [as is progress on making CO2 removal cost-effective and widespread]. So, that’s a mind-blowing average of 80 million people a year dying due to climate impacts every year from now to 2075? Is that realistic?"

Climate Risk Management - Has Conventional Economics Got It Wrong? 0426.rtf

Fatal Calculations – How Economics Has Underestimated Climate Damage and Encouraged Inaction 0420.rtf - The world is currently on a path of 3–5°C of warming, according to the World Meteorological Organization (Reuters 2018). The damages may be so large as to be unquantifiable.
In 2019, Johan Rockström, the head of one of Europe’s leading research institutes, warned that in a 4°C-warmer world, it would be “difficult to see how we could accommodate a billion people or even half of that.... There will be a rich minority of people who survive with modern lifestyles, no doubt, but it will be a turbulent, conflict-ridden world” (Gaia 2019).
In fact, 4°C is “incompatible with an organized global community, is likely to be beyond ‘adaptation’, is devastating to the majority of ecosystems, and has a high probability of not being stable” according to Prof. Kevin Anderson (Roberts 2011). 8 years ago, the World Bank reported that “there is no certainty that adaptation to a 4°C world is possible” (World Bank 2012).
Social breakdown... countries disappearing...global conflict... billions dead. At 4°C of warming, the damages, for all practical purposes, are beyond quantification. They are infinite.

2016-2026 Articles

El Niño Raises Inflation Risk across the World’s Economies 0826.rtf

Europe’s Insurers Warn over Rising Risks 0726.rtf

Extreme Heat Costs Asia's Poorest Workers Health and Wages 0826.rtf

Climate Crisis Poses Growing Threat to Core Financial Stability - ECB Official 0826.rtf

Climate Is ‘Mother of’ Supply Chain Risks, Ex-Bank Chief Says 0726.rtf

Climate 'Black Swan' Risks - Why Investors Are Preparing for the Worst 0726.rtf

Hotter, Pricier Planet 0626.rtf

What Happens to India’s Economy When It’s Too Hot to Work? 0626.rtf

Europe Faces Biggest Food Price Shock in G7 From Hotter World 0526.rtf

Asia Heat Waves Spell Double Trouble for Economies Hit by Oil 0526.rtf - Disruption of fertilizer deliveries, mostly from the Middle East, combined with climate uncertainty that brings soaring temperatures and dry weather, drives up food costs (inflation).

A Hotter World Will Be Pricier 0426.rtf - Extreme heat in 2022 [+5.7°C in some places] raised European food prices by an estimated 0.7% that year, nudging overall inflation up by about 0.3%.