Some other projections

Colors are for % change in precipitation.

Colors in Northeast below are for the number of droughts of each length.

For example, in the top left box, there are generally 5-25 droughts of 1-3 months duration, during the 30 years.  In the top right box, there are no projected droughts of 6 months or more during the 30 years, in the base case.

Droughts (Except West)

US Droughts, Area Affected, in %, by Severity - Annual 1st, then weekly.  Data is from U.S. Drought Monitor.

Means since 2000 were 49.7% dry, 32.0% drought, 18.7% severe, 7.8% extreme, 1.7% exceptional.

Droughts stem from low rain and high temperature.

     Below,  note Southeast US drought in 2007-8 (maps far below), North American drought in 2002-4 (farther below), and 2011-13 drought across much of the US.  In 2007-8, Texas was wet and the Midwest was moister than usual.  In 2002, due to the drought, North American plants absorbed 50% less CO2 than usual.

Droughts: Western US

Yes, the US West’s Drought Really Is That Bad 0522

2 Wyoming Rivers under Restrictions due to Low Snowpack, Drought 0422

Drought in U.S. Is Expected to Persist, and Spread, Through the Spring 0322

The Drought in the Western U.S. Could Last until 2030 - 0222

Western Drought Is Worst in at Least 12 Centuries 0222

A Federal Drought Relief Program Left Southern Oregon Parched 1121

Lake Tahoe Water Level Hits 4-Year Low, amid Drought

Great Salt Lake’s Demise Spurs Water Emergency for Utah 1021

Fast-Shrinking Great Salt Lake Poses Rising Hazards 0721

Reservoirs Are Drying Up, as Consequences of the Western Drought Worsen 0721

American West Stuck in Cycle of ‘Heat, Drought and Fire’, Experts Warn 0721

Water Is Disappearing in the West -- Not Just during Summer (Snow Droughts) 0721

‘Mega-Drought’ along Border Strains US-Mexico Water Relations 0721

Running Out of Water - How Climate Change Fuels a Crisis in the US West 0721

Record-Shattering Heat Wave Bakes Western US, Raises Drought, Fire Concerns 0621

Mega-Heat Wave Peaking in West, Breaking Records, Intensifying Drought, Fires 0621

Rocky Mountain Forests Burning More Often Now than for at Least 2,000 Years 0621

‘Megadrought’ Persists in Western U.S., as Another Extremely Dry Year Develops 0521

Drought-Breaking Rains Have Grown Rarer, More Erratic in US West 0421

The Mega-Drought Parching 77% of the Western US, Explained 0321

Nearly Half the U.S. Is in Drought.  Conditions Will Likely Grow Worse – NOAA 0321

Texas Ranchers, Activists, Local Officials Brace for Megadroughts 0720

US South-west in Grip of Historic ‘Megadrought' 0520

America’s Farmers, Reeling from Floods, Face a New Problem - No Water 0719

As New Mexico Reservoirs Hit Bottom, Worries Grow Over the Future 0918

Drought Creates a Perfect Storm for Wildfires in U.S. West 0718

Vanishing Rio Grande Puts Pressure on San Luis Valley Farmers during Extreme Drought 0618

Climate Change Is Darkening Seattle’s Water Forecast 0915

Washington Governor Declares Drought Emergency 0515

More Northwest Mountains Are Snow-Free Already, as Drought Deepens 0515

Wild Animals in Drought-Stricken Western States Are Dying for a Drink 0515

Pacific Winds Tied to Warming Slowdown, Dry West 0415

Dry, Warm Winter Leaves Western U.S. Snowpack at Record Low Levels 0415

Mighty Rio Grande Is Now a Trickle Under Siege 0415    The trickle fades and is reduced to zero in El Paso.  The Conchos (upstram from Big Bend National Park), Salado, and San Juan tributaries from Mexico, downstream from El Paso, return small amounts to Rio Grande upstream from McAllen, restoring the Rio Grande to trickle status.

Maps of Water Use Show Why Western US Is in Trouble 1014


California Braces for Extreme Summer Drought after Dismal Wet Season 0522

California’s 2 Largest Reservoirs Are 'Critically Low' as Dry Season Starts 0522

Mega-Drought Threatens California Power Blackouts This Summer 0422

Parched Southern California Restricts Outdoor Watering, in Unprecedented Step 0422

California's Lean Snowpack Signals Deepening Drought Ahead 0322

California Records Driest January in 38 Years 0222

Record December Snow in West Brings Major Drought Relief, Hope for 2022 - 1221

California Water Districts to Get Unprecedented 0% of Requested Supplies 1221

As Drought Conditions Worsen, California Expands State of Emergency 1021

Lake Tahoe Water Level Hits 4-Year Low, amid Drought

As Drought Worsens, California Farmers Are Being Paid Not to Grow Crops 1021

California’s Thirst for Water May Accelerate Global Warming 0921 - the energy cost of pumping water, from underground, distant places, or the energy for desalination plants

Mendocino, California Tourist Town, Is Running Out of Water - ‘It’s a Shock’ 0821

‘Truly an Emergency’- How Drought Returned to California – and What Lies Ahead 0621

California's Dry Weather Is Bad News for Wildfires and Water Supply 0421

California Had Its Driest February on Record.  Here’s How Bad It Was. 0320

February, Typically California Rainy Season’s Peak, Will Be Its Driest on Record 0220

California Declared Totally Drought-Free for 1st time in 7 Years 0319

Southern California's Water Year Has Been Nearly Bone Dry So Far 0118

About Half of California Now Out of Drought 0117

Greenhouse Gases Made West Coast Drought Worse 1116

Californians Stopped Saving So Much Water This Summer 1016

San Francisco Bay Ecosystem Collapsing, as Rivers Diverted 1016

Downtown L.A.'s 5-Year Rain Total Is Lowest Ever Recorded 0716

It Will Take Years of Wet Weather before California Recovers from Drought 0616

California Braces for Unending Drought 0516

El Niño Is Rapidly Filling California's Once-Dusty Reservoirs, Easing Drought 0316

Drought Is Still ‘Very Serious’ in California, despite Near Record Snow 0216

California Cut December Water Use 18.3%, Barely Meeting Gov. Brown’s Mandate 0216

What Happened to El Niño?  Be Patient, L.A., It'll Come, Expert Says 0116

Epic, 500-Year Snow Fail in California’s Iconic Mountains 0915

Californians Cut Water Use by 31% in July 0815

Los Angeles Continues Dramatic Water Savings - 21% in July 0815

California Drought Could Be the New Normal 0815

Global Warming Has Made California’s Drought Worse 0815 - Warming increased evaporation, regardless of rain.

Drought Sets Up ‘Emergency Situation' for California's Trees 0815

Drought Has Cut California’s Hydro-Electricity Generation by 2/3 - 0715

Drought Devastates California Cherry Crop, Puts Some Growers Out of Business 0615

California Moves to Restrict Water Pumping by pre-1914 Rights Holders 0615

Drought Takes $2.7 Billion Toll on California Agriculture 0615

California’s Snowpack Is Now 0% of Normal 0515

Climate Change Could Overwhelm California, Obama Adviser Says 0515

California Water Officials Deliver Sobering Facts on Depleted Wells 0515

Drought Cuts Power Production from California Dams 0515

El Niño Strengthens.  Hope for Serious Drought Relief? 0515

Drought Kills 12 Million Trees in California's National Forests 0515

Drought Making California's Air Quality Worse, American Lung Association Says 0415

California Desert Oasis Collides with Drought 0415

How Bad Is California Drought? - Soil Moisture? Rainfall? Runoff? Stored Water? 0415

Now, Every Day Is Fire Season in Drought-Era California 0415

For Drinking Water in Drought, California Looks Warily to Sea 0415

Beyond Almonds - A Rogue's Gallery of Guzzlers In California's Drought 0415

California Facing Extreme Heat Waves and Rising Seas 0415

Epic California Drought Is Preview of Future Global Warming Mega-Droughts 0415

California Facing Extreme Heat Waves and Rising Seas 0415               July 22, 2014

Epic California Drought Is Preview of Future Global Warming Mega-Droughts 0415

Gov. Brown Orders California's 1st Mandatory Water Restrictions 0415

California’s Terrifying Climate Forecast- Droughts Nearly Every Year 0315

California Suffers Dry January, Prolonging Devastating Drought 0215

Dry January Starts Familiar Feeling of Dread among Farm Water Leaders 0115

How the Massive Scale of California’s Drought Informs Climate Change Debate 0115

California Drought Fears Return with Signs of 4th Straight Dry Year 0115

California Drought Brings Smaller Harvests, More Hunger among Farmworkers 1214

California Drought - Storm Gives Bump to State Water Supplies 1214

American Drought - California’s Crisis 1214

Nature, Not Climate Change, Blamed for Drought 1214

California Drought the Worst in 1,200 Years 1214

Atmospheric River, Heavy Rain Roar Into California 1214

We’re Running Out of Water - California & Desalination 1114

Prediction - California Droughts Will Worsen 1114

A History of Megadrought in California 1014

Californians Make Big Cuts in Water Usage 1014

In Virtual Mega-Drought, California Avoids Defeat 1014

With Dry Taps and Toilets, California Drought Turns Desperate 1014

Another Drought Casualty - No Chance to Make Key Air Standard 0914

When the Snows Fail 0914

Megadrought Likely in Store for Southwestern US 0814

Drought Looms over California Race for U.S. House 0814

Drought Leaves California Homes Without Water 0814

If You Think California Water Crisis Can't Get Worse, Wait Until the Aquifers Are Drained 0814

West’s Historic Drought Stokes Fears of Water Crisis 0814

California Could Stay Dry Enough to Make Food Pricier 0814

California Drought Transforms Global Food Market 0814

In California, Record Heat Adding to Extreme Drought 0814

Why Heavy Rains Probably Won’t Do Much Good in Drought-Stricken California 0814

58% of California Hits Driest Level, for Record Drought 0714

Over 80% of California Reservoirs Are Less Than Half Full 0714       

Why the California Drought Affects Everyone 0714

Groundwater Pumping Propping Up Farms in California Drought 0714

California Drought Expected to Cost State $2.2 Billion in Losses 0714

Downtown LA Is Now Driest Since Records Began in 1877 - 0714

100% of California Now in Highest Stages of Drought 0514

California Drought- El Niño Probability Now 78% for Next Winter 0514

Drought Covers 100% of California for 1st Time in 15 Years 0414 

California's Water Wars Reach ‘New Level of Crazy' This Year 0414

For San Joaquin River Revival, Drought Becomes Way of Life 0414

California Drought- Central Valley Farmland on Its Last Legs 0314

In Drought, Water War in California Fought Underground 0913

San Luis Reservoir Only 17% Full, Causing Silicon Valley Water Problems 0813

How Dwindling Snow from Warming Can Dry Out Los Angeles 0613

Sequoias Show Most Drought & Fires at Medieval Optimum in 3K Yr 0310

3-Yr Drought Slashes CA Crops Planting 0109

Colorado River Basin

West’s Megadrought Delivers Another Blow - Saving Glen Canyon Dam 0522

Record Low Water Levels Reveal Body in Barrel at Lake Mead 0522

Lake Powell Officials’ Stark Choice in West's Megadrought - Water or Electricity 0422

Lake Mead Hits Unprecedented Low, Exposing an Original Water Intake Valve 0422

Drought Is Sinking Lake Powell's Water Level.  Its Total Capacity Is Shrinking Too. 0322

Drought Means 33% Chance Lake Powell Can’t Generate Hydropower in 2023 - 0921

US Projections on Drought-Hit Colorado River Grow Direr 0921

1st-Ever Water Cuts Declared for Colorado River in Historic Drought 0821

Lake Powell Hits Record Low Level, in Climate Change-Fueled Water Crisis0721

Severe Drought Threatens Hoover Dam Reservoir – and Water for the US West 0721

‘Mega-Drought’ along Border Strains US-Mexico Water Relations 0721

Against Expectations, Southwestern Summers Are Getting Even Drier 0621

The Shocking Numbers behind the Lake Mead Drought Crisis 0621

What Tree Rings Reveal about America’s Mega-Drought 0621

Lake Mead at Hoover Dam to Reach Lowest Water Level since It Filled in 1930s 0621

1st-Ever Colorado River Water Shortage Is Now Almost Certain 0521

US West Prepares for Possible 1st Water Shortage Declaration 0421

Heat and Drought Ravaged West with Last Year; Will 2021 Be Worse? 0221

Thirsty Future for American West, as Megadrought Grips Fastest-Growing Cities 0520

Southwest Drought Rivals Those of Centuries Ago, Thanks to Climate Change 0420

Mega-Droughts Are Likely Coming to the US Southwest Within Decades 0719

Amid 19-Year Drought, States Sign Deal to Conserve Colorado River Water 0319

Colorado River Is Drying Up for 40 Million Americans Who Depend on It 1218

'A Hot Drought' - Warming Is Driving Much of the Colorado River's Decline 0918                             

Water Wars Should Set Arizona’s Senate Race Alight 0818

Mountain Snowpack Shrinks to 66% of Normal, Feds Sound Drought Alarm 0418

Southwest U.S. May Have Entered a ‘Drier Climate State’ 0216

Lake Powell's Receding Waters Show Risk of U.S. ‘Megadrought' 0915

Shrinking Colorado River Increasingly Concerns Yuma Farmers, Millions of Water Users 0715

Drought Has Cut California’s Hydro-Electricity Generation by 2/3 - 0715

Colorado Begins $3.4 Million Effort to Save Agriculture Water, Make Power with It 0515

Western Drought Steals Clean Energy, Along with Fresh Water, at Power Plants 0415

Lake Mead On Track For Record Low Water Level Amid Drought 0415

California Isn’t the Only State with Water Problems 0415

Dry, Warm Winter Leaves Western U.S. Snowpack at Record Low Levels 0415

We’re Going to Be Out of Water- Navajo Nation Dying of Thirst 0415

Facing Down Southwest Drought - We're in It Together 0215

Megadrought Likely in Store for Southwestern US 0814

Water Woes Among Topics for 8 Governors in Vegas 1214

Long-Lasting California Drought Foreshadows Crisis for Rest of West 1114

Record Drought Reveals Stunning Changes Along Colorado River 1114

There’s an 80% Chance the Southwest Drought Could Last a Decade 0914

Megadrought Likely in Store for Southwestern US 0814

Swirls of Dust and Drama Punctuate Life in the Southwest 0814

Southwest Braces as Lake Mead Water Levels Drop 0814

Lake Mead Reservoir Drops to Record Low 0714

Drought - & Neighbors - Press Las Vegas to Conserve Water 0414

Colorado River Drought Forces a Painful Reckoning for States 0114

Climate Change Tough on Colorado Plateau 0413

Lakes Mead and Powell May Dry Up within Decades 0213

Mega-Drought in Southwest Is Bad Omen for Forests Globally 0613

Fierce Drought Wallops Southwest Farmers 0411

Lake Mead to Dry Up Soon? 0308

A Shrinking Colorado River Faces Sharp, Sudden Cuts 0622 - Lake Mead shrinks 1.5 X as fast during  2021-22 as 2020-21



Drier than the Dust Bowl in Colorado 0714

Colorado Tumbleweeds Overrun Drought Areas 0414

For Southeast Colorado, a New Dust Bowl Is Blowing In 0414

Dust Bowl Worries Swirl Up, as Shelterbelt Buckles 0913

Drought Ravages US West 0813

California Has Driest Year on Record - and It May Get Worse 0114

California Water Woes Hit Hard in Driest Year on Record 1113

Facing Drought, Wichita Falls Bans Outdoor Watering 1113

In Texas Drought, Abbott Keeps Lawn Green by Drilling 1113

With or Without $2 Billion, Water Woes Here to Stay 1113

Texas Authority Cuts Off Water to State's 2nd-Largest Estuary 0913

Turning Off the Spigot In Western Kansas Farmland 0813

Texas Tragedy - Ample Oil, No Water 0813

Climate Change's Heat Intensifies .

.Drought in the USA 0713 

Drought, Flood Signal Iowa's Future 0613 

West Texas Oil Field Town Runs Out of Water 0613 

Fracking Fuels Water Fights in US Dry Areas 0613

American West Becoming Increasingly Dusty 0613

Latest Casualty of Drought May Be US Aquifers 0513 

Wells Dry, Fertile Plains Turn to Dust 0513 

US Crop Insurance Shields Farmers from Drought 0513 

New Mexico Grapples with Tough Choices as Drought Persists 0513  below: his farm along the Nile was irrigated.

Drought Eases in Much of US, with Fields of Mud 0413

Getting Serious About a Texas-Sized Drought 0413     

The Drought Is Drying Up All Our Ethanol 0413

Parts of Plains Face 3rd Year of Drought 0413                       

Nobody Is Declaring a State of Drought in California 0413 

Scientists Forecast Another Bleak Drought Year for US 0413

US Drought Likely to Worsen in 2013 0313

Drought Eases in Midwest 0313

Climate Change Threatens Shipping Routes 0313 

US Drought Intensifies in Texas and Florida 0313 

Thin Snowpack in West Signals Summer of Drought 0213

Drought Forecast to Persist in 2013 for Much of US 0213 

Winter Rains Shy Away from Drought-Stricken Plains 0213

2 Great Lakes Hit Record Low Water 0213

Waiting For Dredging, Great Lakes Ports Close 0113

As Drought Persists, People Save Every Drop 0113 

Drought Points Up Critical Role of Waterways 0113 

Rains Aids Shippers on Mississippi River 0113 

Texas Seeks Water in 2+ Year Drought 0113

Drought Disaster in Much of US Wheat Belt 0113 

Little Sign of Drought Easing in US Midwest 0113

Climate Change to Cut Western Water Runoff by 10% 1212

Underwater Forest Reveals Story of a Historic Mega-Drought 1212 

Water Deficit Worsening in the West 1212

GHGs Drive Drought in US West 0208

Cause of 2012 US Drought Remains Elusive 0413

10 Hardest Hit States for Crops 0213

Storms on Great Plains Stir Dust Bowl Memories 1212

Mississippi River Faces Shipping Freeze as Water Levels Drop 1212 

Drought Threatens to Close Mississippi River to Barges 1112 

Corps Cuts Flow on Missouri River 1112 

Dust Bowl Revisited 1112

Drought Forces Companies to Confront Water Use Questions 1112

Drought Halts Traffic on Low Mississippi River 0812 

2012 US Drought to Become New Normal 0812 

Drought Makes Over 50% of US Disaster Area 0812 

Drought in Arkansas Impacts Rivers 0812 - PDF

Drought in 56% of US Threatens Corn Crop 0712

US Extreme Drought Area Grew by Size of Texas 0712

Drought Sends Mississippi River Near Record Lows 0712

Corn, Soybean Prices Shoot Up as Drought Worsens 0712

How the Drought Could Hit US Wallets 0712 

US Drought Worst Since 1956 0712

Drought Stretches Across America 0712

SW Drought Spreads Across US 0412

a slide from 2013.  The hottest full year in US histiory remains 1954.

June 2012

July 2012

July 2011

August 2011

June 2007

August 2007

below: 2002, August (Other months are similar)

Section Map: Droughts, Deserts & Fires