Overview Studies, except Government

Global Warming Has Accelerated - Hansen 0125 PDF.pdf

Rethinking Energy 2020-2030 - 100% Solar, Wind, and Batteries Is Just the Beginning 1020.rtf - 62 pp

Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920.rtf - Abstract. - von Schuckmann, Hansen et al. 
The orange dots in the graph below constitute the trend line.  Central estimates in the various studies are blue.

     Earth gained 358 zJ over 1970-2018.  This 48-year total is about 600 times annual human energy use, or 10-20 times cumulative human energy use.
    Over this period, as shown in the diagram above, the oceans accounted for 89% (52% in the upper 700 meters, 28% 700-2,000 meters deep, and 9% below that); land (continental crust) 6%; melting ice 4%; and atmosphere 1%.  Over the shorter and most recent 2010-2018 period, these figures were 90% ocean (52-30-8%); 5% land; 3% ice; and 2% atmosphere.
    The rate of heat gain was 0.87±1.2 Watts / sq meter over 2010-2018.  There have been various comparable estimates before and since, indicate in the graph above.  0.47 is for 1970-2018; 0.87 is for 2010-2018.
    To stabilize Earth’s surface temperature (at a level substantially higher than today’s unless all excess CO2 is removed immediately), Earth’s CO2 level must be reduced from 412 ppm to 353 ppm.

Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920.rtf - 29 pp 

The main study.  Earth's heat gain rose to 0.87 W per sq meter, from 0.47 averaged over 48 years or (0.40 over 51 or 56 years).  Earth's rate of heat gain has increased over time, as has Earth’s surface temperature (about ~2% of the heat gain).  Excerpted figures are below.  The gray one at right is about warming the ground / soil / rocks.

Climate Maps Show a Transformed United States 0920.rtf

for high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).

Drawdown Solutions 0417.rtf

Note: This mixes technologies to put less carbon in the air, with social changes that correlate with fewer carbon emissions - with some overlap, and with a few technologies that remove carbon from the air.

Unprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215.pdf

Heat in the Heartland - Climate Change and Economic Risk in the Midwest - Risky Business / Grayson 0115.pdf - 58 pp

4° Turn Down the Heat - Confronting the New Climate Normal - World Bank 1114.pdf - 320 pp.

       by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics

     The report focuses on 3 regions: Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Europe plus Central Asia.  It says that 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels, by 2050, is locked in.  According to the World Bank, with current policies, there is a 40% chance of Earth’s surface exceeding 4°C warming by 2100.
    The Executive Summary says: "If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal—a world of increased risks and instability.
    "The consequences for development would be severe, as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise.  The task of promoting human development, of ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. [emphasis added]
    "Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world.  The benefits of strong, early action on climate change, action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies, far outweigh the costs.  Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C.  But, the time to act is now.”

     It includes projections, for 2°C warming, of 30-70%, 50% and 60% yield declines for soybeans, wheat and corn respectively in Brazil, 50% for wheat in Central America and the Caribbean, and 10-50% for wheat in Tunisia.  Similarly, the Balkans would face yield losses up to 50% for wheat, corn, vegetables and grapes.  Crop losses would be nearly as great in Ecuador, Chile, and Syria.  With "3-4°C warming, large negative impacts on agriculture can be expected.”

     Rainfall is projected to decline 20-50% in a 4°C world for Central America, the Caribbean, the Western Balkans, and the Middle East and North Africa.  Meanwhile, heavy rainfall and flooding would increase about 30% in Siberia and northwest South America.  The Amazon rainforest could turn from a carbon sink to a source, as happened in the once-a-century droughts there in 2005 and 2010.  Even with 2°C warming, carbon emissions from thawing permafrost could rise 20-30% across the forests of Russia.

Climate Sensitivity, Sea Level & Atmospheric CO2 - Hansen 0913 2.pdf - 32 pp

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict - Hsiang 0913.pdf   a meta-analysis of 60 studies

Many more graphs from the meta-analysis appear in the section "Costs, Wars, Migrate+"

     Rain (dryness) is a 2nd key factor: from Chinese dynasty changes, to Mayan, Akkadian and Angkor civilization collapses, to modern inter-group riots and conflicts in India, Brazil and Africa.

US Costs of Climate Inaction - UCS 0909.pdf

Climate Change in the Midwest - UCS 0809.pdf - 24 pages

     Average summer temperatures and rainfall for 1961-90, 2010-39, 2040-69 & 2070-99.  Red is for the high emissions scenario, orange for the low emissions scenario.  The data from these 2 climate migration studies can be extrapolated to other parts of the US.

Climate impacts now especially harm poor people: in Africa, Mideast, India, Indonesia, Peru.

Migrating Climates in the Northeast & Their Impacts - UCS 0707.pdf - 160 pages

     See Climate Change in the Midwest, above, for similar analysis of Great Lakes states.

Section Map: Overviews