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Climate Change “Will Accelerate” Owing to Decline in Natural Carbon Storage 0325
2°C Climate Target Is ‘Dead’, Says James Hansen, Renowned Climate Scientist 0225
Trying to Reverse Climate Change Alone Won’t Save Us, due to Tipping Points 1024
Survey of IPCC Authors Shows Doubt, Hope, World will Achieve Climate Targets 1024 - take 1. The median estimate from the 211 climate scientists is 2.7°C hotter than immediately pre-industrial levels by 2100. 86% estimated 2°C or more warming by 2100.
Most Climate Scientists See Temperature Rise Exceeding 1.5 & 2°C Paris Targets 1024 - take 2. Moreover, the median response was that CO2 removal would be 5 gigatonnes per year of CO2 by 2050.
Are We Underestimating Global Warming? 0924 - IPCC discounted models that show more warming than the "consensus". These hotter models show more albedo (reflectivity) feedbacks, including aerosols (sulfates, etc.). Other albedo feedbacks, notably clouds, snow, and sea ice effects may also be underestimated by the IPCC.
Earth May Have Breached 7 of 9 Planetary Boundaries 0924
Global Warming in the Pipeline - Hansen 101523 - PDF, 62 pages. "Equilibrium global warming, including slow feedbacks for today’s human-made greenhouse gas (GHG) climate forcing (4.1 W/sq meter), is 10°C."
Is Climate Change Speeding Up? Here’s What Jim Hansen, Scientists Say. 1223.rtf
Climate Dominoes - Spratt & Dunlop 0522 - PDF, 23 pp
The Costs of Climate Tipping Points & How They Could Compound One Another 0821
Earth Energy Imbalance Estimates, across Studies - spreadsheet summarizing studies cited in the paper and underlying the graph below, for study titled "Heat Stored in the Earth System ...". The trend over time is shown by orange dots. 0.87 Watts / sq meter = 450 TW (million Watts) when summed across Earth’s surface. This 0.87 (450) rate is about 30 times the human rate of energy use now.
Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920 -
Abstract. - von Schuckmann, Hansen et al. The orange dots in the graph below constitute the trend line. Central estimates in the various studies are blue.
Earth gained 358 zJ over 1970-2018. This 48-year total is about 600 times annual human energy use, or 10-20 times cumulative human energy use.
Over this period, as shown in the diagram above, the oceans accounted for 89% (52% in the upper 700 meters, 28% 700-2,000 meters deep, and 9% below that); land (continental crust) 6%; melting ice 4%; and atmosphere 1%. Over the shorter and most recent 2010-2018 period, these figures were 90% ocean (52-30-8%); 5% land; 3% ice; and 2% atmosphere.
The rate of heat gain was 0.87±1.2 Watts / sq meter over 2010-2018. There have been various comparable estimates before and since, indicate in the graph above. 0.47 is for 1970-2018; 0.87 is for 2010-2018.
To stabilize Earth’s surface temperature (at a level substantially higher than today’s unless all excess CO2 is removed immediately), Earth’s CO2 level must be reduced from 412 ppm to 353 ppm.
The main study. Earth's heat gain rose to 0.87 W per sq meter, from 0.47 averaged over 48 years or (0.40 over 51 or 56 years). Earth's rate of heat gain has increased over time, as has Earth’s surface temperature (about ~2% of the heat gain). Excerpted figures are below. The gray one at right is about warming the ground / soil / rocks.
- Optimum Habitality Zones maps first
for high emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).
Weeks with temperatures > 95°F (max = 26 in AZ & S TX). Next below, days with wet-bulb temps > 82°F. 95°F is lethal. Max ~ 70 in LA.
# of forest fires/year > 12,000 acres,2040-70
% of properties below high tide in 2040-60
Crop Yields (Purple is reduced, green is increased.)
Economic Damages as % of GDP, from +0.6% to -59% (FL, etc.)
Climate Tipping Points — Too Risky to Bet Against 1119 - Rahmsdorf, Steffens, Schellnhuber, Rockström, et al.
9 active tipping points - Tipping points are probably being passed well before 2°C warming. This requires an emergency response. We face a series of cascading, interactive tipping points, starting from Arctic sea ice loss. Changes in (heat) forcing are much higher than ever before. We may be heading to CO2 levels last seen 50+ million years ago, with temperatures 12-14°C warmer than 1880’s.
Palaeoclimate Constraints on the Impact of 2°C Anthropogenic Warming and Beyond 0718 - PDF, 12 pp "Sustained warming at times over the past 3.5 million years has been accompanied by significant changes in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several meters on millennial timescales. Comparison of paleo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the [models’] lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate the long-terms warming in response to future radiative forcing - by as much as a factor of two - and thus may underestimate centennial-to-millennial sea-level rise.
“Even if future emissions are reduced, warming will continue beyond 2100 for centuries or even millennia because of long-term feedbacks related to ice loss and the carbon cycle.”
Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene - Steffen 0818 - PDF, 378 pp
State of the Climate - American Meteorological Society - 0816 - PDF, 300 pp
Climate Risk in Southeast & Texas - Kinniburgh 0715 - PDF, 114 pp
Ice melt, sea level rise & superstorms - paleoclimate data, climate modeling & modern observations show 2°C global warming is highly dangerous - Hansen 0715 (draft) - PDF, 121 pp - multi-meter sea level rise, etc. by 2100 to 2200
The Conservative Case for a Carbon Tax - Taylor 0315 - PDF, 28 pp
EPA’s endangerment finding for CO2 will continue to stand up in the Courts. So the EPA is required to act, unless Congress changes the Clean Air Act to remove it from EPA jurisdiction. Democrats will continue to have at least 40 votes in the Senate to filibuster. So any CAA change requires Deomcratic buy-in.
A carbon tax is much more economically efficient than regulations - more CO2 reduced for far less $. It’s much more transparent than cap & trade, not subject to market swings and manipulation. It’s much better at protecting society’s wealth than alternative ways to cut CO2 emissions. With border adjustments, it protects jobs in a way that regulations cannot.
Many conservative Republican economists support a carbon tax, when it substitutes for other taxes. They include Alan Greenspan, Greg Mankiw, Art Laffer, Robert Samuelson, Charles Krauthammer, Richard Posner, George Schultz, Martin Feldstein, and Gary Becker, among others. etc.
Carbon Dioxide Removal and Reliable Sequestration - NAS 0215 - PDF, 155 pp
Soil lost 230 GT of carbon over the past 10,000 years, due to land conversion and land use. This comparesw to 365 GT added from burning fossil fuels. Feasible soil carbon sequestration, by moving carbon from the air back into soil, is estimated (to 2065) at 30-50 GT of carbon.
Other major methods to sequester significant amounts of carbon include accelerated rock weathering (almost as much potential), ocean iron fertilization (very costly, with 90-300 GT potential), bio-energy with carbon capture (100-1,000 GT), direct air capture, and sequestration for the 2 capture-only methods. Cost estimates range from $1 to $1,000 per tonne of CO2 removed, depending on the method, with wide estimates for each method.
The Uninhabitable Earth 0717 This is a summary of many, many studies, across many facets of climate research. It is based on interviews over the past several months with the most credentialed and tenured scientists in the field, few of them inclined to alarmism and many advisers to the IPCC who nevertheless criticize its conservatism. They "have quietly reached an apocalyptic conclusion, too: no plausible program of emissions reductions alone can prevent climate disaster.”
Doomsday - Peering beyond Scientific Reticence
“Fears of sea-level rise ... are barely scratching the surface of what [is] possible."Heat Death - The Bahrain-ing of New York
The End of Food - Praying for Cornfields in the Tundra
Climate Plagues - What Happens When the Bubonic Ice Melts?
Unbreathable Air - A Rolling Death Smog That Suffocates Millions
The Perpetual War - The Violence Baked into Heat
Permanent Economic Collapse - Dismal Capitalism in a Half-Poorer World
Poisoned Oceans - Sulfide Burps off the Skeleton Coast
The Great Filter - Our Present Eeeriness Cannot Last
Note: This mixes technologies to put less carbon in the air, with social changes that correlate with fewer carbon emissions - with some overlap, and with a few technologies that remove carbon from the air.
Browns are drier than current “normal’. The center map measurs moisture in soil to a depth of 1 foot (30 cm), the right-hand map measures it to 6.6 feet (2 meters).
Referring to left-hand map, tan (Carolinas, Alberta) is “dry”. Light brown (-1 to -2: Iowa, Illinois, Alabama, Oregon, Ontario, etc.) is “moderate” drought. Semi-light brown (-2 to -3: Colorado, Texas, etc.) is “drought". Brown (-3 to -4: southern Mexico) is “severe” drought. Dark brown (-4 to -5) is “extreme” drought, and black is “exceptional” drought. These are AVERAGES - sometimes better, sometimes worse.
90% of California suffered extreme drought in 2014, and 60% suffered exceptional. All of Iowa and Nebraska suffered extreme drought in July 2012. So did almost all of Texas and most of Oklahoma and New Mexico, in July and August 2011.
The RCP 8.5 scenario is the fastest of 4 scenarios available - roughly “business as usual.” Global CO2 emissions have grown faster than that in the past 20 years, but show signs of slowing.
Days above 95°F will roughly triple. (See Figure 1, partly excerpted below.) This includes 75-100 such days a year for southern Illinois (Carbondale, Cairo, Vincennes, plus Decauter) and more than half of Missouri (St. Louis, Cape Girardeau, Joplin, Sedalia, Rolla, Poplar Bluff, Hannibal, etc.) It also includes Evansville IN and sliver of Ohio between Portsmouth and Marietta and Iowa north of Hannibal. This is almost as hot as Las Vegas.
The Midwest in particular will experience rising temperatures, in terms of warmer winters more than unbearable summers. But by the end of the century, the average Midwesterner will likely see 22 to 77 days per year over 95°F, compared to only 3, on average, over the past 30 years.
There is a 5% (or more) chance that 125-150 days a year will exceed 95°F in much the same area (plus Terre Haute and Jasper IN and Effingham IL, but minus Hannibal and Sedalia MO). See the rest of Figure 1 in the report.
These compare to 114 days above 95°F for Las Vegas in 2014, 95 such days in 2013, and 115 in 2012. The southern Midwest can become hotter than Las Vegas by the end of the century (or a little later), if current emission trends continue.
Based on current emission trends (maps from Figure 3 in the report), summers in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana grow hotter by 2100 than Texas and Arizona ones today. Iowa and Ohio ones grow as hot as Texas ones now. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin summers grow almost as hot.
At left mostly above (from Figure 4 in the report), heat stroke days will increase dramatically by the end of the century, from none now. Most of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana would suffer 40-60 days a year of dangerous heat: as bad (hot and humid) as anywhere in Texas. Ohio and Iowa would see 30-50 such days a year.
Worse, all of Illinois - and most of Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana - would experience 10-25 days a year of extremely dangerous heat: hotter (wet bulb) than anywhere in Texas.
In fact, “On our current path, the Midwest will likely see an average of as many as 3 days per year of Category IV conditions, which have never been experienced in the U.S. to date."
Agriculture will be harmed in a major way. Crop losses of 40-64% by 2100 are likely for corn in the Corn Belt and 8-38% by 2100 for soybeans in the same states (IA, IL, IN, OH, MO). The Corn Belt will have moved into Canada, North Dakota, and NW Minnesota. See maps and table below. In most of Missouri and Illinois, plus about half of Iowa and Indiana, crops losses are 25-50%, and worse in a few places. Wheat is much less affected, as it is often grown in the colder months and harvested by June.
Global Warming - So What - Fry 0614
Risky Business - Bloomberg, Paulson, Steyer et al. 0614 - PDF, 56 pp
Turning Point - New Hope for the Climate - Gore 0614
National Academy of Sciences Climate Change Summary - ongoing, link to WEB
Slides for Beijing - Hansen 0214 - PDF, 35 pp. This focuses on justice of developed nations using more than their share of Erath's carbon emission budget, and how the US and China can cooperate to reduce emissions to fit budget.
Case for a Carbon Tax - Hansen 0214
Assessing Dangerous Climate Change - Hansen 1213 - PDF, 26 pp
27 Climate Indicators over 43 Years - Amer. Meteorological Soc. 0813 - excerpt from below
Almost all of these indicator time-series graphs appear on other pages, beginning on the Heat page with cloudiness, then temperatures in the lower stratosphere, lower troposphere, and surface.
State of the Climate - American Meteorological Society - 0813 - link to website for study - PDF, 258 pp
4° Turn Down the Heat - Confronting the New Climate Normal - World Bank 1114 - PDF, 320 pp.
by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research and Climate Analytics
The report focuses on 3 regions: Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Europe plus Central Asia. It says that 1.5°C warming above pre-industrial levels, by 2050, is locked in. According to the World Bank, with current policies, there is a 40% chance of Earth’s surface exceeding 4°C warming by 2100.
The Executive Summary says: "If the planet continues warming to 4°C, climatic conditions, heat and other weather extremes considered highly unusual or unprecedented today would become the new climate normal—a world of increased risks and instability.
"The consequences for development would be severe, as crop yields decline, water resources change, diseases move into new ranges, and sea levels rise. The task of promoting human development, of ending poverty, increasing global prosperity, and reducing global inequality will be very challenging in a 2°C world, but in a 4°C world there is serious doubt whether this can be achieved at all. [emphasis added]
"Immediate steps are needed to help countries adapt to the climate impacts being felt today and the unavoidable consequences of a rapidly warming world. The benefits of strong, early action on climate change, action that follows clean, low carbon pathways and avoids locking in unsustainable growth strategies, far outweigh the costs. Many of the worst projected climate impacts could still be avoided by holding warming to below 2°C. But, the time to act is now.”
It includes projections, for 2°C warming, of 30-70%, 50% and 60% yield declines for soybeans, wheat and corn respectively in Brazil, 50% for wheat in Central America and the Caribbean, and 10-50% for wheat in Tunisia. Similarly, the Balkans would face yield losses up to 50% for wheat, corn, vegetables and grapes. Crop losses would be nearly as great in Ecuador, Chile, and Syria. With "3-4°C warming, large negative impacts on agriculture can be expected.”
Rainfall is projected to decline 20-50% in a 4°C world for Central America, the Caribbean, the Western Balkans, and the Middle East and North Africa. Meanwhile, heavy rainfall and flooding would increase about 30% in Siberia and northwest South America. The Amazon rainforest could turn from a carbon sink to a source, as happened in the once-a-century droughts there in 2005 and 2010. Even with 2°C warming, carbon emissions from thawing permafrost could rise 20-30% across the forests of Russia.
Living Planet Report - WWF 0914 Update - PDF, 180 pp.
"US Can Slash Its Fossil Fuel Emissions 85% by 2050 - 1114.” The study suggests energy decarbonization paths for the top 15 CO2 emitting nations, mostly using available technologies.
Jointly, these 15 emit almost 75% of the world’s CO2.
Jointly (table at right) they could reduce CO2 45% by 2050.
Note India’s big increase. Most other nations cut big.
The Executive Summary for all 15 nations is here (PDF).
Individual nation study PDFs are in the first column of the table.
More excerpts than below are on Bio-Impacts page.
The global Living Planet Index (LPI) reveals a continual decline in vertebrate populations over the last 40 years. This global trend shows no sign of slowing down.
The weighted LPI (LPI-D) shows that the size of populations (the number of individual animals) decreased by 52% from 1970 to 2010. This includes 56% declines in tropical populations and 36% in temperate zone populations. It includes 39% declines for terrestrial species populations, 76% for fresh water ones, and 39% for marine ones. Populations in protected areas declined only 18%.
Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict - Hsiang 0913 a meta-analysis of 60 studies
Many more graphs from the meta-analysis appear in the section "Costs, Wars, Migrate+"
Rain (dryness) is a 2nd key factor: from Chinese dynasty changes, to Mayan, Akkadian and Angkor civilization collapses, to modern inter-group riots and conflicts in India, Brazil and Africa.
The World on Edge - Lester Brown 0311 - 60 slides, as PDF
From 1950-1990, average grain yields rose 2.2% per year; but from 1990-2010, they rose just 1.2% annually
Wheat yields are plateauing in France, Germany, the United Kingdom, and Egypt, all important producers
Japan's rice yields, close to 5 tons per hectare, have been flat for over a decade; those in China may also plateau as they approach the Japanese level
Raising grain yields is becoming more difficult as the backlog of unused agricultural technology shrinks.
Climate Change in the Midwest - UCS 0809 - PDF, 24 pages
Average summer temperatures and rainfall for 1961-90, 2010-39, 2040-69 & 2070-99. Red is for the high emissions scenario, orange for the low emissions scenario. The data from these 2 climate migration studies can be extrapolated to other parts of the US.
Scientific American Summary - Caldeira 0912 PDF
Increasing Drought - Past & Future - Dai 0812 PDF
Climate Outlook 2012 - MIT 0612 PDF
Ocean CH4 Drives Catastrophe - Peach 0811 PDF
Tons, PPM & Impacts of GHGs, over 100s to 1,000s of Years - NRC 0611 PDF, 40 pp
Climate Impacts on Agriculture - Hatfield 0311 - PDF, 20 pp - This extensive literature review is the basis for the agriculture chapter in the draft 2013 US National Climate Assessment. See Food page for details.
National Security & Climate Change - CNA Corp. 0407 - PDF 68 pp
Climate Wedges - WRI 0407 - PDF 20 pp
AAAS Climate Statement - 0207 PDF
Climatic Consequences - Going Green Gets the Green - Citigroup 0107 - PDF, 120 pp
Climate Change - the Cost of Inaction ($ Trillions) - Ackerman 1006 - PDF, 48 pp
Climate Change Futures - Health, Ecology, Economics - Paul Epstein & Swiss Re 1105 PDF, 142 pp
Copenhagen Synthesis Report - IARU & U of Copenhagen 0309 - PDF 39 pp
1961-2003 in blue. 1993-2003 subset in magenta. Continents = soil and rock. Most temperature graphs are about air temperatures (Atmosphere). Note the dramatic increase in % heat going into oceans, vs everything else, during 1993-2003, compared to 1961-92: 91% oceans vs 9% everything else during 1993-2003, but 87% oceans vs 13% everything else during 1961-92.
Tipping Points Schematic 2
Food Prices Soar - FAO 0408 - PDF, 44 pp. Graph below is from a later edition.
holdren-slides---0108.pdfMeeting the Climate Change Challenge - Holdren 0108 - 26 slides, as PDF
Climate impacts now especially harm poor people: in Africa, Mideast, India, Indonesia, Peru.
Warming harms agriculture most & soonest in the tropics. CO2 fertilization effects are included.
Warming harms agriculture later in mid-latitudes. CO2 fertilization effects included.
Migrating Climates in the Northeast & Their Impacts - UCS 0707 - PDF, 160 pages
See Climate Change in the Midwest, above, for similar analysis of Great Lakes states.
Section Map: Overviews
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