Albedo / Reflectivity

Global Warming Is Accelerating – Jim Hansen and Team 0225.rtf

The full article by Hansen et al. article is at

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/epdf/10.1080/00139157.2025.2434494?needAccess=true

or here:

Global Warming Has Accelerated - Hansen 0125.pdf

     The figure below, from Tselioudis (2024), shows that loss of cloud cover has been greater (more blue, back and gray) in the tropical North and South Atlantic Oceans than in the tropical North and South Pacific.

     The area low (%) in cloud cover in the tropical North Pacific grew from 11% to 21% from 1984 to 2018, which is 10° of latitude.  In the tropical South Pacific, the area low in cloud cover grew from 1° north to 21°south in 1984 (22° of latitude) to 6°N to 29°S over the same span, area low in cloud cover namely by 35° of latitude.  That's 13° of growth.  That 13° was a greater gain in the tropical South Pacific than the 10° for tropical North Pacific.

    In the tropical North Atlantic, over the same time period, the area low in cloud cover grew from 19° of latitude to 41°, (again, 22° of latitude change) over 34 years,  In the tropical South Atlantic, the area low in cloud cover increased by 21 to 34° of latitude, which is also 13° of latitude over 34 years.

     The narrow equatorial zone, with thicker (and thue more reflective) clouds shrank from 12% to 5% over the 34 years, or by 7%.

     In the mid-latitudes in the north Pacific, the area of dense (brown and red) cloud cover shrank from 20% to 17%, or by 3%.  In the Pacific's southern mid-latitudes, the area of dense cloud cover stayed at 26%.

     In the mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic, the area of dense (brown and red) cloud cover shrank from 25% to 18%, for 7% shrinkage.  In the South Atlantic md-latitudes, dense cloud cover shrank by perhaps only 1% over the 35 years. 

     Below left, the observations are the 3rd (right-most) of the 3 yellow to red graphs below.  The High ECS model (left-most of the 3) much more clearly matches OBSERVATIONs than does the middle (Low ECS) graph.  This is clearest in southern winter toward 60°S and in northern winter toward 60°N.  In addition, the 10-30°S patch from May to December in the High ECS model is a better match to observation than is the Low ECS (middle of 3) map/graph.

Why Clouds Are the Key to New Troubling Projections on Warming 0220.rtf - Newer global climate models (GCMs) do a much better job of handling clouds, for which droplet size is very important, as is large scale (10s to 100s of kilometers): micro and macro in the same model.
    These newer GCMs find that clouds diminish as Earth's surface warms.  See reasons in the figures below: How Climate Change Breaks Up Clouds.
    Thus, they have an amplifying effect on warming.  Note cloud figures with trend lines, farther below.  This means that the warming feedback concerning clouds has been considerably underestimated.  And that holding global surface warming to an acceptable level is far more difficult than most scientists thought during 1980-2015.
    The likelihood of catastrophic warming is much higher than we thought.  Earth's carbon budget remaining to keep warming under 2°C is far less than zero.
And legacy carbon in the air is very dangerous and CO2 removal is paramount.

As the World Warms, Clouds Could Disappear 0319.rtf

Global Warming Tidings Get a Boost, after Cloudy Climate Issue Cleared Up 0716.rtf - take 1 on study
Cosmic Rays & Clouds 0500.pdf - broadly similar to, and precursor to, Tim Patterson's article and graphs above

Clearing Clouds of Uncertainty - Zelinka 1017.rtf - original scientific paper, 2 of 3 figures omitted.  See just below.

     In Zelinka's graph below, the big dots are for central estimates, thick bars for standard deviations, thin bars for range, among 18 models.

Below are 2 cloud cover trend graphs by Dr. Fry, one by temperature and one by time.

Below are 2 cloudiness graphs from the World Meteorlogical Organization, c. 2009

Investigating the Enigma of Clouds and Climate Change 0817 - With warming, clouds are migrating toward the poles.

     Clouds have their greatest cooling impact around the equator, because of the higher sun angle (overhead more often).

The World’s Clouds Are in Different Places than They Were 30 Years Ago 0716 - take 2 on study

     The table above shows that, since 1985, cloud cover has been increasing in the tropics and sub-polar regions, especially 10°N to 10° S.  In the sub-tropics and temperate regions (25-45 or 50°, latitude), it has been decreasing.

Ocean Warming due to Plankton Collapse 0616.rtf

Tiny Aerosols Pose a Big Predicament in a Warming World 1122.rtf

Aerosol Pollution Is Destabilizing Earth’s Climate and Threatens Our Health 0322.rtf

The SO4 from SO2 Emissions graph / estimated data is drawn from a 2000 IPCC figure for SO4 concentrations in Greenland ice and from a dabtabase on global industrial SO2 emissions.  It uses interpolation and estimated contributions from major volcanoes.

Figure 8.2 (in part) from the IPCC 5th Assessment, WGI.

Global and Regional Trends of Atmospheric Sulfur 0119.rtf

Section Map: Heat