Overview

     This speech by Dr. Julian Cribb summarizes the challenge we face.

     Food demand is expected to soar 100% by 2060.  But we face peak water, peak land, peak oil, peak fish, and a climate penalty (by 2100) exceeding 50%: 10% crop loss for each 1°C of warming.  Farming is highly vulnerable to > 2°C warming.

    Groundwater mining accounts or 13% of sea level rise; it’s most acute in north China, the Ganges basin, the Middle East, and the US Great Plains, where groundwater resources may be exhausted in 15-20 years.  Climate change also affects the reliability of rainfall (and snowpack).

     At current rates, topsoil will be exhausted in 48-70 years.  Its loss will observed as crop yields decline.  Each meal costs 10 kilos of topsoil.  Coming peaks (2035-2060) of soil and the fertilizers phosphorus and potassium will appear as very steep food price hikes and catastrophic crop failures.

     In 50-100 years, agriculture may no longer be the way we feed ourselves.  Industrial hydroponic algae farming may be.  We must also re-invent the global diet.  Cities will completely recycle their wastes back into food.