Surge in Marine Heat Waves Costs Lives and Billions in Storm Damage 0225.rtf
Why Earth’s Oceans Have Been on a Record Hot Streak 0125.rtf
Oceans Are Warming Faster and Faster as the Earth Traps More Energy 0125.rtf
Hotter Water Makes Hurricane Milton So Ferocious 1024.rtf
Hurricane Milton’s Perilous Track Driven by Hot Gulf Water 1024.rtf
Oceans Face ‘Triple Threat’ of Extreme Heat, Oxygen Loss and Acidification 0624.rtf
Ocean Heat Has Shattered Records for More Than a Year. What’s Happening? 0424.rtf
‘Astounding’ Ocean Temperatures in 2023 Intensified Extreme Weather 0124.rtf
Why Our Oceans Being the Warmest in Recorded History Is So Concerning 0823.rtf - Marine life struggles with heat, its resulting oxygen loss, and acidification. Coral is especially hard hit. It also, via the warming-melting effects on Greenland and Antarctic ice, slows down Atlantic Ocean circulation, especially the AMOC and Gulf Stream. They may collapse by mid-century, slowly and possibly as soon as 2025. The warming also melts sea ice, a major feedback that further accelerates global warming.
Global Ocean Temperatures Soared to a Record High This Week 0823.rtf
The Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean Is Underway 0623.rtf
Click for moreThe World’s Oceans Shattered Heat Records in April and May 0623.rtf
North Atlantic Temperature Anomaly Sparks Concern among Climate Scientists 0623.rtf
Arctic Climate Modeling Too Conservative, Says New Research 0323.rtf
This Extraordinary Marine Heat Wave Could Threaten Antarctica’s Ice Shelves 0223.rtf
What Sub-Arctic Seas Influencing the Arctic Ocean Says about Climate Change 0720.rtf
Deep Ocean Will Be Warming Rapidly by 2050, Even if Global Emissions Decline 0520.rtf
Inside Australia's Climate Emergency - Tasmania’s Dead Sea 0220.rtf
An Ocean of Evidence on Warming Is Our Cue to Take Action - Now 0119.rtf
Climate Change Has Doubled the Frequency of Ocean Heat Waves 0818.rtf - warm salty water below, fresh icy water above
Antarctic Ocean Discovery Warns of Faster Global Warming 0618.rtf
'Concerning'- Marine Heat Waves Increasing, Especially near Australia 0418.rtf
Oceans Are Warming Rapidly, New Study Confirms 0617.rtf
Climate Change Is Literally Turning the Arctic Ocean Upside Down 0417.rtf
The Arctic Is Warm Again Because Of Course It Is 0317.rtf
Open Water near North Pole Is a Sign of a Rapidly Warming Arctic 0916.rtf
Soaring Ocean Temperature Is ‘Greatest Hidden Challenge of Our Generation' 0916.rtf
Southern Ocean Is Getting Less Salty. What That Means for the Rest of Earth 0816.rtf
The Blob - How Marine Heat Waves Are Causing Unprecedented Climate Chaos 0816.rtf
The Biggest Body of Warm Water on Earth Is Getting Even Bigger 0716.rtf
Warmer Indian Ocean Could Be 'Ecological Desert', Scientists Warn 0116.rtf
The Oceans Are Heating Up Faster than We Thought. Why That Matters. 0116.rtf
Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915.rtf
Global Warming Is Reversing 1,800 Years of Natural Ocean Cooling 0815.rtf
Heat is Piling Up in the Depths of the Indian Ocean 0515.rtf
Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515.rtf
The Gulf Stream System May Already Be Weakening. That's Not Good. 0315.rtf
Underwater ‘Storms' May Hold Key to Melting Antarctic Ice 1114.rtf
Deep Mystery- Are the Seas Warming or Cooling? 1014.rtf - As the 2 scientific studies (Durack and JPL), also summarized in the 3 perspectives below, state - for ocean warming below 2,000 meters deep, the warming signal did not rise above the noise. But for ocean above 2,000 meters, the warming was very substantial. In fact, it found more warming there (1/4 to 1/2) than previous recent studies did - with the difference concentrated in the Southern hemisphere. This means we have seriously underestimated the amount of warming that has occurred in recent years.
Ocean Warming Understimated - 3 Perspectives 1014.rtf
Greenland Sea Has Warmed 10 x Faster Than Global Ocean 1113.rtf
Global Ocean Heat Content 0713.pdf
West Australian Coastal Waters Gripped by Marine Heat Wave 1212.rtf
Ocean Heat Gain Since 1993 0510.rtf
Ocean Warming 1993-2008 0510.rtf
Sea Level Rise after the Last Ice Age Revealed by New Geological Data 0325.rtf
New Study Reinforces Worries about Pulses of Rapid Sea Level Rise 0325.rtf - from Doggerland, between England and France
Global Sea Level Rose Higher than Expected Last Year. Faster Warming 0325.rtf - 0.59 cm / year vs. 0.43 expected, attributed to ocean heating up more than expected, so more thermal expansion
How Climate Change Puts the Safety of Drinking Water at Risk 0225.rtf
Glacier Experts Uncover Critical Flaw in Sea-Level Rise Predictions 0125.rtf
Warm Seawater Encroaches on Filchner Ice Shelf, Raises Sea Level Concerns 0125.rtf
Resource-Rich Greenland Ice Loss Threatens Big Sea Level Rise, AMOC 025.rtf
Why Sea Level Rise in Surging in the U.S. Southeast Coast 1224.rtf
Sea Levels Set to Rise Permanently, Even if Global Warming Is Reversed 1124.rtf
Click for more
Greenland Is Losing More Ice than We Thought, What It Means for Our Oceans. 0124.rtf
Antarctica Warming Much Faster than Predicted Is Deeply Worrying for Sea Level 0923.rtf
What Arctic Ice Tells Us about Climate Change 0823.rtf
The Best and Worst Case Scenarios for Sea Level Rise 0623.rtf
Greenland Glacier Discovery Shows Sea Level Projections Are Too Low 0523.rtf
Pace of Global Sea Level Rise Has Doubled 0523.rtf
Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Are Melting Rapidly, Driving Sea Level Rise 0423.rtf
Seas Have Risen Drastically along Southern U.S. Coast in Past Decade 0423.rtf
Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise Imminent past 1.8°C - 0223.rtf
Warming Seas Carving into Massive Antarctic Glacier Could Trigger Rising Seas 0223.rtf
Clue to Rising Sea Levels Lies in DNA of Ancient Octopus 0223.rtf
Sea Level Rise Acceleration 0922.rtf
Greenland Ice Sheet Set to Raise Sea Levels by Nearly 1 Foot 0822.rtf
China's Sea Levels Touched New High in 2021 - 0522.rtf
Antarctic Ice Shelves Are Shattering. How Fast Will Seas Rise? 0322.rtf
Coastal Sea Levels in U.S. to Rise a Foot by 2050, Study Confirms 0222.rtf
US Sea Level to Rise as Much in the Next 30 Years as in the Past 100 - Study 0222.rtf
Inland Mangroves Reveal a Tumultuous Climatic Past and Hint at Our Future 1021.rtf
Mediterranean Sea Is Heating 20% Faster than World’s Oceans - WWF 0621.rtf
Scientists Still Struggle to Pin Down Sea Level Risks Posed by Antarctica 0521.rtf
Sea Level Is Rising at Fastest Rate in at Least 2,000 Years 0321.rtf - If sea level rise continues accelerating at the pace shown at right up till 2023, seas could rise ~3.5 meters by 2100.
Sea Levels Will Rise Faster than Expected, Warns New Study 0221.rtf
Sea Level Rise from Greenland, Antarctica Ice Melt Matches Worst-Case Scenario 0920.rtf
Ancient History of East Antarctic Ice Has Unsettling News for Sea Level Rise 0720.rtf
Sea Levels Could Rise More than a Meter by 2100, Experts Say 0520.rtf
A Puzzling Past Sea Level Rise Might Have Its Missing Piece 0420.rtf - Sediments ananlysis indicates melting took place mostly in the ice sheet between Scandinavia and Svalbard, plus some north of Finalnd-Karelia.
By 2100, Melting from Greenland Alone Could Raise Sea Level 3 or 4 Feet 0819.rtf
Can Trillion-Ton Snow Cannons Save Us from Sea-Level Rise? 0719.rtf
Rise in Global Sea Levels Could Have ‘Profound Consequences' 0519.rtf
Tampa Bay Leaders Should Prepare for Seas to Rise Up to 8.5 Feet by 2100 - 0519.rtf
CO2 Levels at Highest for 3 Million Years – When Seas Were 20 Meters Higher 0419.rtf - take 1 on study
The Last Time CO2 Levels Were This High, Trees Grew at the South Pole 0419.rtf - take 2
Studies Shed New Light on Antarctica’s Future Contribution to Sea Level Rise 0219.rtf
Today’s Earth Looks like It Did 115,000 Years Ago, except Massive Sea Level Rise 0219.rtf
Maryland Sea Level to Rise 1.2 to 4.2 feet by 2100 - 0119.rtf
At This Rate, Earth Risks 20 to 30 Feet Higher Seas, Historical Analysis Shows 0918.rtf
Geo-Engineer Polar Glaciers to Slow Sea-Level Rise 0318.rtf
Actions Today Will Decide Antarctic Ice Sheet Loss and Sea Level Rise 0318.rtf
Seas to Rise about 1 Meter, if Climate Goals Are Met, + 20 cm per 5-Year Delay 0218.rtf
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating - 4 Inches Per Decade (or More) by 2100 - 0218.rtf
Major Trend of More Snowfall Seen in Antarctica Could Counter Sea Level Rise 0118.rtf
Seas May Rise 8 Feet by 2100, Inundating Land That's Home to 236 Million 1217.rtf
Study Suggests the Ocean Could Rise More, and Faster, than We Thought 1017.rtf
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating in Florida, Scientists Warn 0717.rtf
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating, with Greenland in Leading Role 0617.rtf
Rare US Floods to Become the Norm if Emissions Aren't Cut 0617.rtf
Pace of Sea Level Rise Has Nearly Tripled since 1990 - 0517.rtf - Pace had been overestimated for 20th century.
Scientists Keep Increasing Projections of Sea-Level Increase by 2100 - 0417.rtf
Sea Level Rise Could Send U.S. ‘Climate Migrants' Fleeing to Austin, Atlanta 0417.rtf
China Blames Climate Change for Record Sea Levels 0317.rtf
Final Obama Climate Reports Projects Seas to Rise 1 to 8 Feet by 2100 - 0117.rtf
Ancient Warm Period Hints at Bigger-than-Expected Sea Level Rise 0117.rtf - 6 to 9 meters higher than today, at same temperature as today, 125,000 years ago
Methane May Not Last Long in the Air, but It Drives Sea Level Rise for Centuries 0117.rtf - as does CO2
Antarctic Past Points to Sea Level Threat 0117.rtf - 3 meter rise 14,700 years ago
New Orleans Will See One of the Highest Sea Level Rises in the World 1116.rtf
What It Means for Sea Level When 2 Huge Antarctic Glaciers Are Unstable 1016.rtf
Scientists May Have Solved Key Riddle about Antarctica. It’s Bad News. 0916.rtf
Volcanic Eruptions Masked True Effects of Climate Change on Sea Levels 0816.rtf
Better Models of Antarctic Ice Collapse Show Much Faster Sea Level Rise 0416.rtf
'Dire Prediction' on Melting Antarctic Ice Sheets and Rising Sea Levels 0416.rtf
Climate Forecasts Underestimate Sea-Level-Rise Impact of Antarctic Thaw 0316.rtf
Ice Melt Could Make Seas Rise 6 Feet by 2100 - 0316.rtf - PDF, 121 pp - multi-meter sea level rise, etc. by 2100 to 2200
We Had All Better Hope These Scientists Are Wrong about Earth’s Future 0316.rtf
James Hansen Warns of Much Worse than Expected Sea Level Rise 0316.rtf
Sea Level Rise? Can We Pump Quadrillions of Tons of Seawater 2 Miles High? 0316.rtf
Preparing for the Inevitable Sea-Level Rise 0216.rtf
20th Century Sea Level Rise Was Fastest in at Least Last 2,700 Years 0216.rtf
Downpours over Land Have Slowed Sea Level Rise 0216.rtf
Weakening Ice Shelves Raise Sea Level Rise Concerns 0216.rtf
Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History' 0216.rtf
Why the U.S. East Coast Could Be a Major ‘Hotspot’ for Rising Seas 0216.rtf
Ocean Warming is Making Floods Worse 0116.rtf
Groundwater Depletion Adding to Global Sea-Level Rise 1216.rtf
Rising Sea Levels More Dangerous than Thought - NASA 0815.rtf - rising faster / sooner than IPCC said
Hansen 2015 Ice Melt Predictions.pdf
Worst-Case Scenario for Sea Level Rise- No More New York, Berlin or Shanghai 0915.rtf
Climate Change and the Fate of Antarctica 0915.rtf
Study Predicts All Antarctic Ice to Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0915.rtf
James Hansen Just Outlined an Alarming Scenario for Our Planet’s Future 0715.rtf - ice loss keeps doubling for years
A New Climate-Change Danger Zone? 0715.rtf - ice loss doubling, + slow down & stop ocean circulation
James Hansen Is Getting the Cold Shoulder 0715.rtf - reaction to Hansen study
Prediction of Rapid Sea Level Rise Won’t Change Global Climate Talks 0715.rtf - impact of Hansen study
Sea Levels Could Rise At Least 20 Feet 0715.rtf - take 1 on study of sea level rise 3, 0.4 and 0.12 million years ago.
not Hansen
Why Earth’s Past Has Scientists So Worried about Sea Level Rise 0715.rtf - take 2. Action in Greenland & Antarctica
Sea-Level Rise Accelerating, as Earth's Ice Sheets Melt 0515.rtf
Obama’s Trip to Florida Everglades Is a Shrewd Move in Climate Debate 0415.rtf
California Facing Extreme Heat Waves and Rising Seas 0415.rtf
Antarctica's Retreating Ice May Re-Shape Earth 0215.rtf
Sea Levels in Northeast Jumped 5 Inches in Just 2 Years 0215.rtf
Seas Will Rise More Around the US, Less Around Antarctica 0115.rtf
Pakistan's Coastal Villagers Retreat as Seas Gobble Land 0115.rtf
Acceleration in Sea-Level Rise ‘Steeper' 0115.rtf
Almost 7,000 UK Properties to Be Sacrificed to Rising Seas 1214.rtf
Warming World's Rising Seas Wash Away Some of South Florida's Glitz 1214.rtf
What's Causing How Much of Sea Level Rise 1014.rtf
Sea Level Rise over Past Century Unmatched in 6,000 Years 1014.rtf
Storm Surge Could Flood NYC 1 in Every 4 Years 0414.rtf
How High Will Seas Rise? Ask the Experts. 1113.rtf
Climate Downgrade- Sea Level Rise 1112.rtf
Timing a Rise in Sea Level 0813.rtf
Sea Level Rise Locking In Quickly, Cities Threatened 0713.rtf
Models Suggest 2.3 Meter (4 LT) Sea-Level Rise per 1°C Warming 0713.rtf
What Sea Level Rise Looks Like for 24 US Cities 0413.rtf
Maps of Regional Sea Level Rise Variation 0213.rtf
US East Coast to Be Early Casualty of Rising Seas 0812.rtf
3.3-3.0 Million Years Ago, Sea Levels Usually +30 to -30 Meters from Today's 1008.pdf
Stern's Bad News from Copenhagen 0309.rtf
Sea Level 3 Million Years Ago - Dowsett 1090.rtf
Sea Level 10-40 M Higher in Mid-Pliocene (~ 3 Mya) 0411.rtf
A Rising Tide of Discord 0113.rtf
Sea Level to Rise Despite More Snow in East Antarctica 1212.rtf
Seas to Rise 0.2-2.0 Meters by 2100 -NOAA 1212.rtf
Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than IPCC Projections 1112.rtf
Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Quantified 1112.rtf
Sea Levels Rose Quickly 14K Years Ago 0612.rtf
2ºC Warming Could Trigger Catastrophic Sea-Level Rise 1211.rtf
US Atlantic Sea Levels Rising Fastest in at Least 2000 Years 0611.rtf
1.4 Meter Sea Level Rise Likely by 2100 as Antarctic Ice Melts 1209.rtf
15 MY Says 380 ppm CO2 => Seas 25+ M Higher 1009.rtf
Seas Will Rise 1 Meter This Century 1008.rtf
Sea Level Rise May Be 2x IPCC # 1207.rtf
% Area & Pop Less Than 10 Meters Above Sea , World & Regions 0407.pdf
Sea level has varied greatly over the course of geological history, from perhaps 400 feet higher than today to ~ 420 feet lower than today. (Levels far higher than today, very long ago, were augmented by different vertical distribution of land mass, due to many-million year plate tectonic movements.) Sea level since 35 million years ago has been no more than 240 feet higher than today, but sea level was 400 feet lower than today as recently as 20,000 years ago.
Worldwide, sea level has risen perhaps 1 inch per century in the last 3,000 years, but perhaps 2 inches per century in the 3,000 years before that. Local sea level rise varies modestly from the global average - depending on land subsidence, any glacial rebound, and uplift from tectonic plate movements. Global sea level rose 8 inches during the 20th century.
In 2011 sea level rise was 13 inches per century. About 1/2 of that is due to thermal expansion of warmer water. Melting ice in Greenland and Antarctia contributes almost ~1/4. ~1/4 comes from glaciers in Asia, North America, Europe, and elsewhere. ~1/20 comes from mined groundwater.
From 15,000 to 8,000 years ago, seas rose 1.5 meters (5 feet) per century, 4.5 times today's rate, including 4 meters (14 feet) per century for one 700-year period.
Over the past 800,000 years, as shown below, sea level changes have followed changes in atmospheric CO2 (and CH4) pretty closely. The difference between minima and maxima was ~110 meters, or 360 feet.
During Meltwater Pulse 1A, sea level rose 4+ meters per century, for 7 centuries.
Vertical scale below is cut off at left margin. From bottom, -0.1, -0.05, 0, 0.05, 0.1, 0.15, 0.2, 0.25, 0.3 meters
Sea Level Rise Acceleration 0922 -
Rate doubled in last 20 years and accelereated a bit
(4.4/2.9 = 1.52 for 2013-2021 compared to 2003-2012 vs
2.9/2.1 = 1.38 for 1993-2002 compared to 2003-2012)
Sea Level Rise over Past Century Unmatched in 6,000 Years 1014.rtf
Note: Atlantic Ocean relative to North Carolina only. Its coast may have subsided.
1980-2010
How Climate Change Puts the Safety of Drinking Water at Risk 0225.rtf
Sea Levels Set to Rise Permanently, Even if Global Warming Is Reversed 1124.rtf
Antarctica Warming Much Faster than Predicted Is Deeply Worrying for Sea Level 0923.rtf
Greenland Glacier Discovery Shows Sea Level Projections Are Too Low 0523.rtf
Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets Are Melting Rapidly, Driving Sea Level Rise 0423.rtf
Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise Imminent past 1.8°C - 0223.rtf
Greenland Ice Sheet Set to Raise Sea Levels by Nearly 1 Foot 0822.rtf
Coastal Sea Levels in U.S. to Rise a Foot by 2050, Study Confirms 0222.rtf - take 1 on study
US Sea Level to Rise as Much in the Next 30 Years as in the Past 100 - Study 0222.rtf - take 2 on study
Mediterranean Sea Is Heating 20% Faster than World’s Oceans - WWF 0621.rtf
Scientists Still Struggle to Pin Down Sea Level Risks Posed by Antarctica 0521.rtf - One study’s ensemble of many models found a median Antarctica SLR contribution of 1.5 incles by 2100, as much snow was added to East Antarctica. But the study by DeConto el al., including marine ice-cliff instability, found up to 17 inches of SLR from Antarctica by 2100.
Sea Levels Will Rise Faster than Expected, Warns New Study 0221.rtf
Click for more
Sea Level Rise from Greenland, Antarctica Ice Melt Matches Worst-Case Scenario 0920.rtf
Sea Levels Could Rise More than a Meter by 2100, Experts Say 0520.rtf - survey of 106 scientists who published at least 6 peer-reviewed papers on the subject in major academic journals
By 2100, Melting from Greenland Alone Could Raise Sea Level 3 or 4 Feet 0819.rtf
Can Trillion-Ton Snow Cannons Save Us from Sea-Level Rise? 0719.rtf
Rise in Global Sea Levels Could Have ‘Profound Consequences' 0519.rtf
Tampa Bay Leaders Should Prepare for Seas to Rise Up to 8.5 Feet by 2100 - 0519.rtf
Studies Shed New Light on Antarctica’s Future Contribution to Sea Level Rise 0219.rtf
Maryland Sea Level to Rise 1.2 to 4.2 feet by 2100 - 0119.rtf
At This Rate, Earth Risks 20 to 30 Feet Higher Seas, Historical Analysis Shows 0918.rtf
Geo-Engineer Polar Glaciers to Slow Sea-Level Rise 0318.rtf
Actions Today Will Decide Antarctic Ice Sheet Loss and Sea Level Rise 0318.rtf
Seas to Rise about 1 Meter, if Climate Goals Are Met, + 20 cm per 5-Year Delay 0218.rtf
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating - 4 Inches Per Decade (or More) by 2100 - 0218.rtf
Major Trend of More Snowfall Seen in Antarctica Could Counter Sea Level Rise 0118.rtf
Seas May Rise 8 Feet by 2100, Inundating Land That's Home to 236 Million 1217.rtf below, 1250 cm = about 49 feet, while 130 cm = a bit over 5 feet.
Study Suggests the Ocean Could Rise More, and Faster, than We Thought 1017.rtf
Sea Level Rise Is Accelerating in Florida, Scientists Warn 0717.rtf
Rare US Floods to Become the Norm if Emissions Aren't Cut 0617.rtf
Scientists Keep Increasing Projections of Sea-Level Increase by 2100 - 0417.rtf
Sea Level Rise Could Send U.S. ‘Climate Migrants' Fleeing to Austin, Atlanta 0417.rtf
Final Obama Climate Reports Projects Seas to Rise 1 to 8 Feet by 2100 - 0117.rtf
New Orleans Will See One of the Highest Sea Level Rises in the World 1116.rtf
What It Means for Sea Level When 2 Huge Antarctic Glaciers Are Unstable 1016.rtf
Scientists May Have Solved Key Riddle about Antarctica. It’s Bad News. 0916.rtf - another DeConto-Pollard study
Better Models of Antarctic Ice Collapse Show Much Faster Sea Level Rise 0416.rtf - includes take 3 on DeConto study.
'Dire Prediction' on Melting Antarctic Ice Sheets and Rising Sea Levels 0416.rtf - take 3 on DeConto-Pollard study.
Ice Melt Could Make Seas Rise 6 Feet by 2100 - 0316.rtf - take 1 on DeConto-Pollard study. 40+ feet by 2500 possible
Climate Forecasts Underestimate Sea-Level-Rise Impact of Antarctic Thaw 0316.rtf - take 2. 50+ feet by 2500 possible
James Hansen Warns of Much Worse than Expected Sea Level Rise 0316.rtf - take 2 on study below
We Had All Better Hope These Scientists Are Wrong about Earth’s Future 0316.rtf - take 1 on study below
Ice Melt, Sea Level Rise and Superstorms - Hansen 0316.pdf - Evidence from Paleoclimate Data, Climate Modeling, and Modern Observations that 2°C Global Warming is Dangerous - Hansen et al. 0316 - PDF, 20 pp. - abridgment of the final peer-reviewed publication. The draft from July 2015 is above, under Sea Level Rise - Past, which informs the projected future, below.
Cold icemelt from Antarctica spreads out along the ocean surface. That prevents the vertical mixing (warmer water to the top) there that has driven the great ocean circulation. In Antarctica, the warmer water below the ice eats away at placiers from underneath. Cold icemelt from Greenland leads to shutdown of the Atlantic overturning circulation.
Ice losses from Greenland and Antartica grow, modelled as exponentially, with doubling times of 10, 20, or 40 years. Sea level rises non-linearly, 5-9 meters over 50 to 150 years. This is simlar to what happened 120,000 years ago, when sea levels rose from 3-4 meters higher than today to about 9 meters higher, including 2-3 meters within several decades. (For perspective, the sea level range (maximum - minimum) over the recent ice ages was about 125 meters.)
Preparing for the Inevitable Sea-Level Rise 0216.rtf
Sea-Level Rise ‘Could Last Twice as Long as Human History' 0216.rtf
Weakening Ice Shelves Raise Sea Level Rise Concerns 0216.rtf
Why the U.S. East Coast Could Be a Major ‘Hotspot’ for Rising Seas 0216.rtf
Ocean Warming is Making Floods Worse 0116.rtf
Hansen 2015 Ice Melt Predictions.pdf - PDF
Worst-Case Scenario for Sea Level Rise- No More New York, Berlin or Shanghai 0915.rtf
Climate Change and the Fate of Antarctica 0915.rtf
Study Predicts All Antarctic Ice to Melt if All Fossil Fuels Are Burned 0915.rtf
Seas Will Rise More Around the US, Less Around Antarctica 0115.rtf
Pakistan's Coastal Villagers Retreat as Seas Gobble Land 0115.rtf
Almost 7,000 UK Properties to Be Sacrificed to Rising Seas 1214.rtf
What's Causing How Much of Sea Level Rise 1014.rtf
Storm Surge Could Flood NYC 1 in Every 4 Years 0414.rtf
How High Will Seas Rise? Ask the Experts. 1113.rtf
Timing a Rise in Sea Level 0813.rtf
Sea Level Rise Locking In Quickly, Cities Threatened 0713.rtf
Models Suggest 2.3 Meter (4 LT) Sea-Level Rise per 1°C Warming 0713.rtf (See Figures on Weather, Sea Rise+ page.) Caveat: paleoclimate studies indicate ~8 meters sea level rise LT per 1°C.
Maps of Regional Sea Level Rise Variation 0213.rtf
Sea Level Rise Making Floods Routine for Coastal Cities 1014.rtf
Sea Level to Rise Despite More Snow in East Antarctica 1212.rtf
Seas to Rise 0.2-2.0 Meters by 2100 -NOAA 1212.rtf
Seas to Rise 0.2-2.0 Meters by 2100 -NOAA 1212.rtf
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - Springer 1212.pdf in Springer book
Climate Downgrade- Sea Level Rise 1112.rtf
Sea Levels Rising 60% Faster Than IPCC Projections 1112.rtf
Sea Level Rise from Polar Ice Quantified 1112.rtf
US East Coast to Be Early Casualty of Rising Seas 0812.rtf
Sea Levels Rose Quickly 14K Years Ago 0612.rtf
2ºC Warming Could Trigger Catastrophic Sea-Level Rise 1211.rtf
US Atlantic Sea Levels Rising Fastest in at Least 2000 Years 0611.rtf
Sea Level 10-40 M Higher in Mid-Pliocene (~ 3 Mya) 0411.rtf
Indian Ocean Rising 0710.rtf
1.4 Meter Sea Level Rise Likely by 2100 as Antarctic Ice Melts 1209.rtf
15 MY Says 380 ppm CO2 => Seas 25+ M Higher 1009.rtf
Stern's Bad News from Copenhagen 0309.rtf - sea level rise, food shortages
Seas Will Rise 1 Meter This Century 1008.rtf
3.3-3.0 Million Years Ago, Sea Levels Usually +30 to -30 Meters from Today's 1008.pdf
Sea Level Rise May Be 2x IPCC # 1207.rtf
% Area & Pop Less Than 10 Meters Above Sea , World & Regions 0407.pdf
Sea Level 3 Million Years Ago - Dowsett 1090.rtf
At first glance, sea level might rise 65-73 meters (214-240 feet). 61-69 meters come from melting ice: 5-7.5 from Greenland and 3.3-6 from West Antarctica, ~0.5 meters from "mountain" glaciers, and 52-66 from East Antarctica. (While Wikipedia estimates that Antarctic ice has 70 meters of sea level rise equivalent (SLRE) in water, the USGS in 2013 cut its estimate from 73 to 55.3 meters SLRE, according to Phil Blum at www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2013/11/map-sea-level-rise-probably-wrong-its-too-optimistic/71246/?goback=%2Egde_119460_member_5803866787263037442#%21.
4-8 meters comes from sea water's thermal expansion. Warming the world ocean by 5°C would raise sea level perhaps 4 meters, while 10°C (which prevailed 130-40 million years ago) would raise it 8 meters. Warming the entire ocean by 5°C would take ~ 2,500 years, at the current heating and expansion rate of 1.6 mm/year. But it would take less as heating speeds up, with more CO2 in the air.
However, based on past sea levels over 60 million years, the upper bound on sea level rise is ~75 meters. Almost enough to make Memphis a seaport. Burlington and Brattleboro, in Vermont, might become seaports. 98% of New York City would lie beneath the waves.
The life expectancy for Greenland's ice, based on 1992-2011 ice loss rates, is ~11,000 years. For West Antarctica, ~29,000 years. But ice loss rates have continued accelerating. (Greenland's rate recently rose 7-fold in 17 years, Antarctica’s doubled in 4.)
Until about 2010, East Antarctica was gaining ice, but more slowly than West Antarctica is losing ice. More recent data suggest East Antarctica (on the whole, some areas gain, others lose) is losing ice, but the amount is smaller than the uncertainty band. That is, its % net annual volume change is modest compared to the “noise”. Modeling suggests that melting all of East Antarctica's ice could take several million years. But studies of East Antarctic glaciers show that, in recent decades, they receded when temperatures there warmed (Stokes 2013). Morever, when atmospheric CO2 levels were this high (almost 400 ppm) 4 million years ago (and slightly higher 15-20 million years ago), much higher sea levels indicate that East Antarctica lost 10-40% of its ice (6 to 23 meters of SLRE). The question is how FAST its ice melts.
Since the last glacial maximum, sea level rise rates from melting ice peaked at 4 meters per century 14-15,000 years ago (during Meltwater Pulse 1A), or 1+ inch per year. Temperatures now are rising 30 time as fast as then, but only 1/3 as much ice is left. It remains to be seen how fast sea level will rise this time. But sea level rise will accelerate from current levels. 1 inch/year is a reasonable, if high, estimate by 2100: just below the 1.1 inch/year upper bound for 2050-2100 in the draft 2013 US National Climate Assessment (next graph).
Sea level might rise 5 feet (60 inches) or more by 2100. See city sea level rise maps below. A 12-foot rise might well happen by 2200. A 25-foot rise appears unlikely till after 2300. But the uncertainty is large. The dates depend on our emissions and Mother Nature's, plus our success in removing carbon from the air (with some help from Mother Nature). Our knowledge about the dates also depends on how well we understand ice loss dynamics from Greenland and Antarctica. We are learning that our models have underestimated some rates and failed to acount for, or inadequately accounted for, some ice dynamics. (See Ice Dynamics section on Ice page.)
Ice Apocalypse 1117.rtf - summary by a leading ice scientist
Present
+5 Feet
+12 Feet
+25 feet
What if all Earth's ice melted? 68.3 Meters of sea level rise
Central California Eastern US
Oceans Face ‘Triple Threat’ of Extreme Heat, Oxygen Loss and Acidification 0624.rtf
Plastics Could Be Also Acidifying the Ocean 1022.rtf
Arctic Ocean Could Grow Far More Acid than Predicted if Emissions Stay High 0620.rtf - 20% more than previously thought
Ocean Water off US West Coast Acidifying Twice as Fast as Global Average 1219.rtf
Acidity in Seas to Reach Levels Not Seen in 14 Million Years 0718.rtf
North Atlantic Doubles Carbon Intake 0216.rtf
Environmental Change Rate Unprecedented, Study Says 0116.rtf
Stop Burning Fossil Fuels Now - There Is No CO2 ‘Technofix', Scientists Warn 0815.rtf
Ocean Acidification Threatens to Change Entire Marine Ecosystem 1013.rtf
Ocean Acidity Rising 10 x Faster Than Ever in 55+ Million Years 1113.rtf
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Oceans Are Acidifying the Fastest in 300 Million Years 0813.rtf
Ocean Acidification Makes Plankton Emit Less Cloud-Seeding Compounds 0813.rtf
Ocean Chemical Cycles Will Be Upset by Climate Change 0913.rtf
Ocean Acidification Update 0813.rtf
Arctic Ocean Acidifying Rapidly 0513.rtf
Ocean Acidification Accelerated in Nutrient-Rich Areas 0912.rtf
Rate of Ocean Acidification Fastest in 65 Million Years 0210.rtf
Ocean Is Turning Acidic Fast 0109.rtf
Southern Ocean Acidification to Hit Tipping Point 30 Years Earlier 1108.rtf
Key Experiment Probes a Future Acid Ocean 0513.rtf
Ocean Acidification Threatens Food Security 0912.rtf
Oceans Are Acidifying Fastest in 300 Million Years 0312.rtf
Oceans 30% More Acid Than 1800 0410.rtf
The 3 maps and text, about ocean CaCO3 concentrations, are from the US EPA.
"Corals require the combination of temperature, light, and the presence of calcium carbonate, which they use to build skeletons. As atmospheric CO2 levels rise, some of the excess CO2 dissolves into ocean water, reducing its calcium carbonate saturation.
"As the maps indicate, calcium carbonate saturation has already been reduced considerably from its pre-industrial level. Model projections suggets much greater reductions in the future. The blue dots indicate current coral reefs." EPA
Ocean Waves Are Getting Bigger. Is the World Ready? 0225.rtf
High Emissions Future Could Slow Earth’s Strongest Ocean Current 20% by 2050 - 0325.rtf
Is a Key Ocean Current System Slowing Down? 0125.rtf
Ocean Eddy Currents Funnel Extreme Heat and Cold to the Life-Filled Depths 1024.rtf
News about AMOC and Greenland and Antarctic Ice, in Scenarios 0824.rtf
How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean Break? 2057? - 0724.rtf
Oceans Face ‘Triple Threat’ of Extreme Heat, Oxygen Loss and Acidification 0624.rtf
The Gulf Stream is Warming and Shifting Closer to Shore 1023.rtf
Atlantic Ocean Circulation Nearing ‘Devastating’ Tipping Point 0224.rtf
AMOC, Critical Atlantic Ocean Current System, Shows Early Signs of Collapse 0224.rtf
Why Our Oceans Being the Warmest in Recorded History Is So Concerning 0823.rtf - Marine life struggles with heat, its resulting oxygen loss, and acidification. Coral is especially hard hit. It also, via the warming-melting effects on Greenland and Antarctic ice, slows down Atlantic Ocean circulation, especially the AMOC and Gulf Stream. They may collapse by mid-century, slowly and possibly as soon as 2025. The warming also melts sea ice, a major feedback that further accelerates global warming.
Scientists Detect Signs a Crucial Ocean Current Is near Collapse 0723.rtf
The Atlantification of the Arctic Ocean Is Underway 0623.rtf
Antarctic Deep Ocean Currents Are Slowing Earlier than Predicted 0523.rtf
Climate Change Is Making Crabs Lose Their Sense of Smell 0523.rtf
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As Ocean Oxygen Levels Dip, Fish Face an Uncertain Future 0523.rtf
Antarctic Research Sparks Concerns that Ocean Circulation Will Collapse 0423.rtf
Another Casualty of Climate Change - Dissolved Oxygen 0423.rtf
Crucial Antarctic Ocean Circulation Heads for Collapse if CO2 Levels Stay High 0323.rtf
Ocean ‘Dead Zones' Are Proliferating due to Global Warming 1222.rtf
'Blue Blob' near Iceland Could Slow Glacial Melting 0222.rtf
Warmer, Oxygen-Poor Waters Threaten World’s ‘Most Heavily Exploited’ Fish 0122.rtf
Scientists Build New Atlas of Ocean's Oxygen-Starved Waters 1221.rtf
World’s Strongest Ocean Current Is Gaining Speed due to Global Warming 1121.rtf
Atlantic Ocean Invaded the Arctic Ocean Earlier than Anyone Thought 1121.rtf
Marine Oxygen Levels Are the Next Great Casualty of Climate Change 1121.rtf
Critical Atlantic Ocean Circulation May Be Heading for Collapse due to Climate Change 0821.rtf
Scientists Spot Warning Signs of Gulf Stream Collapse 0821.rtf
Changes to Giant Ocean Eddies Could Have ‘Devastating Effects’ Globally 0421.rtf
Climate Change Is Threatening Our Circulation. We Must Act Now. 0321.rtf
Stronger Evidence of Slowing Atlantic Ocean Circulation 0221.rtf
Avoid Gulf Stream Disruption at All Costs, Now Weakest in 1,600 Years 0418.rtf
The Oceans Appear to Be Stabilizing Stratified. Here's Why it's Very Bad News 0920.rtf
Changing Patterns of Ocean Salt Levels Give Clues to Extreme Weather on Land 0920.rtf
Increased Freshwater in Arctic Ocean Could Affect Global Climate Systems 0820.rtf
Fresh Water Is Pouring into the Arctic Ocean. Climate Change Is to Blame. 0820.rtf
What Sub-Arctic Seas Influencing the Arctic Ocean Says about Climate Change 0720.rtf
Climate Change is Pushing Giant Ocean Currents Poleward 0220.rtf
Most Ocean Currents Are Speeding Up, a Mega-Scale Result of Climate Change 0220.rtf
World’s Oceans Are Losing Oxygen Rapidly, Study Finds 1219.rtf
Melting Sea Ice Is 'Atlantifying' the Arctic 1019.rtf
The Ocean Is Running Out of Breath 0219.rtf
Unabated Bottom Water Warming and Freshening in the South Pacific Ocean 0219.rtf
'Tipping Point' Risk for Arctic Hotspot 0119.rtf
Baltic Sea Oxygen Levels at '1,500-Year Low due to Human Activity' 0718.rtf
Huge Stretch of Arctic Ocean Is Rapidly Turning into the Atlantic, in Bad News 0618.rtf
How Melting Arctic Ice Could Cook the Tropics 0618.rtf
Neighboring Seas Are Flowing into a Warming Arctic Ocean 0518.rtf
Ireland Could Face ‘Far Colder Winters and Warmer Summers’ 0418.rtf
Antarctic Bottom Water Formation Is Slowing, Threatening Ocean Circulation 0418.rtf
The Oceans’ Circulation Hasn’t Been This Sluggish in 1,000 Years 0418.rtf
Fast-Melting Arctic Is Already Messing with the Ocean’s Circulation 0318.rtf
Dire Ocean Scenario Is Stark Reminder of Why We Must Stop Climate Change 0318.rtf
Oceans Suffocating, as Huge Dead Zones Quadruple since 1950 - 0118.rtf
Low Oxygen Levels Getting Worse in Oceans 0118.rtf
Failing Phytoplankton, Failing Oxygen - Global Warming Could Suffocate Life on Earth 1215.rtf
Breakthrough Could Help Predict a Catastrophic Loss of Ocean Oxygen 0817.rtf
Cooling Patch in North Atlantic Presages Slowing Ocean Circulation 0817.rtf
Ocean Oxygen Decline Greater than Predicted 0517.rtf
Climate Change Is Literally Turning the Arctic Ocean Upside Down 0417.rtf
Drastic Cooling in North Atlantic beyond Worst Fears, Scientists Warn 0217.rtf
New Studies Show Rex Tillerson Is Wrong about Climate Risks 0117.rtf
Global Ocean Circulation More Vulnerable to Shutdown than We Thought 0117.rtf
Greenland Ice Melt Could Push Atlantic Circulation to Collapse 0117.rtf
How Climate Change Could Jam the World's Ocean Circulation 0916.rtf
Southern Ocean Is Getting Less Salty. What That Means for the Rest of Earth 0816.rtf
Ocean's Oxygen Starts Running Low 0516.rtf
Global Warming Could Deplete the Oceans’ Oxygen, with Severe Consequences 0416.rtf
US East Coast Snowstorms Linked to Slowdown of Atlantic Current 0116.rtf
Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915.rtf
Scientists Fear Toxic Algae Bloom Spreading on Pacific Coast 0815.rtf
Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515.rtf
The Gulf Stream System May Already Be Weakening. That's Not Good. 0315.rtf
Massive Ocean Oxygen Loss from Melting Ice, Warming, 10-17 Millennia Ago 0115.rtf
How Tiny Sea Animals Affect Ocean Currents 0914.rtf
Desert Dust Feeds Deep Ocean Life 0714.rtf
Warming Oceans Will Affect the Planet's Poorest 1013.rtf
Climate Change Moves Nemo Current to the South 1013.rtf
Scientists Warn of 'Deadly Trio' Risk to Ailing Oceans 1013.rtf
World Oceans in Shocking Decline 0611.rtf
Warming Cuts Ocean Oxygen Content 0508.rtf
Pacific Islands Growing 0610.rtf
Gulf Stream Is Not Slowing Down 0310.rtf
Huge Growing Pool of Arctic Water Could Cool Europe 0112.rtf
Global Warming Could Deplete the Oceans’ Oxygen, with Severe Consequences 0416.rtf
De-oxgenation due to climate change is already detectable in some parts of the ocean.
New research from NCAR finds that it will likely become widespread between 2030 and 2040.
Other parts of the ocean, shown in gray, will not have detectable loss of oxygen due to climate change even by 2100.
(Image courtesy Matthew Long, NCAR.)
Ocean Waves Are Getting Bigger. Is the World Ready? 0225
Why Our Oceans Being the Warmest in Recorded History Is So Concerning 0823
Marine life struggles with heat, its resulting oxygen loss, and acidification. Coral is especially hard hit. It also, via the warming-melting effects on Greenland and Antarctic ice, slows down Atlantic Ocean circulation, especially the AMOC and Gulf Stream. The AMOC may collapse by mid-century, give or take a few decades and possibly as soon as 2025. The warming also melts sea ice, a major feedback that further accelerates global warming.
The Great Ocean Slowdown - How Antarctic Ice Loss Is Reshaping the Climate 0325.rtf
High Emissions Future Could Slow Earth’s Strongest Ocean Current 20% by 2050 - 0325.rtf
Global Warming Is Accelerating – Jim Hansen and Team 0225.rtf
Is a Key Ocean Current System Slowing Down? 0125.rtf
Why Earth’s Oceans Have Been on a Record Hot Streak 0125.rtf
Oceans Are Warming Faster and Faster as the Earth Traps More Energy 0125.rtf
Ocean Eddy Currents Funnel Extreme Heat and Cold to the Life-Filled Depths 1024.rtf
News about AMOC and Greenland and Antarctic Ice, in Scenarios 0824.rtf
How Soon Might the Atlantic Ocean Break? 2057? - 0724.rtf
Atlantic Ocean Circulation Nearing ‘Devastating’ Tipping Point 0224.rtf
AMOC, Critical Atlantic Ocean Current System, Shows Early Signs of Collapse 0224.rtf
The Gulf Stream is Warming and Shifting Closer to Shore 1023.rtf
Scientists Detect Signs a Crucial Ocean Current Is near Collapse 0723.rtf
Antarctic Deep Ocean Currents Are Slowing Earlier than Predicted 0523
Antarctic Research Sparks Concerns that Ocean Circulation Will Collapse 0423
Acceleration of Global Sea Level Rise Imminent past 1.8°C - 0223
'Blue Blob' near Iceland Could Slow Glacial Melting 0222
Atlantic Ocean Invaded the Arctic Ocean Earlier than Anyone Thought 1121.rtf
World’s Strongest Ocean Current Is Gaining Speed due to Global Warming 1121.rtf
Critical Atlantic Ocean Circulation May Be Heading for Collapse due to Climate Change 0821.rtf - take 2 on study
Changes to Giant Ocean Eddies Could Have ‘Devastating Effects’ Globally 0421.rtf
Climate Change Is Threatening Our Circulation. We Must Act Now. 0321.rtf
Click for more
Stronger Evidence of Slowing Atlantic Ocean Circulation 0221.rtf
The Oceans Appear to Be Stabilizing Stratified. Here's Why it's Very Bad News 0920.rtf
Changing Patterns of Ocean Salt Levels Give Clues to Extreme Weather on Land 0920.rtf
Increased Freshwater in Arctic Ocean Could Affect Global Climate Systems 0820.rtf
Fresh Water Is Pouring into the Arctic Ocean. Climate Change Is to Blame. 0820.rtf
What Sub-Arctic Seas Influencing the Arctic Ocean Says about Climate Change 0720.rtf
Indian Ocean System Driving Extreme Weather in Australia Likely to Worsen with Global Heating 0320.rtf
Climate Change is Pushing Giant Ocean Currents Poleward 0220.rtf
Most Ocean Currents Are Speeding Up, a Mega-Scale Result of Climate Change 0220.rtf
Melting Sea Ice Is 'Atlantifying' the Arctic 1019.rtf
Unabated Bottom Water Warming and Freshening in the South Pacific Ocean 0219.rtf
Surprising New Picture of Ocean Circulation Could Have Major Consequences for Climate Science 0119.rtf - more sinking east of Greenland than west of it
'Tipping Point' Risk for Arctic Hotspot 0119.rtf
Huge Stretch of Arctic Ocean Is Rapidly Turning into the Atlantic, in Bad News 0618.rtf
How Melting Arctic Ice Could Cook the Tropics 0618.rtf
Neighboring Seas Are Flowing into a Warming Arctic Ocean 0518.rtf
Ireland Could Face ‘Far Colder Winters and Warmer Summers’ 0418.rtf
Antarctic Bottom Water Formation Is Slowing, Threatening Ocean Circulation 0418.rtf
Avoid Gulf Stream Disruption at All Costs, Scientists Warn 0418.rtf
The Oceans’ Circulation Hasn’t Been This Sluggish in 1,000 Years 0418.rtf
Fast-Melting Arctic Is Already Messing with the Ocean’s Circulation 0318.rtf
Dire Ocean Scenario Is Stark Reminder of Why We Must Stop Climate Change 0318.rtf
Cooling Patch in North Atlantic Presages Slowing Ocean Circulation 0817.rtf
Climate Change Is Literally Turning the Arctic Ocean Upside Down 0417.rtf - warm salty water below, fresh icy water above
Drastic Cooling in North Atlantic beyond Worst Fears, Scientists Warn 0217.rtf
New Studies Show Rex Tillerson Is Wrong about Climate Risks 0117.rtf - One study (below) shows Gulf Stream will slow / stop.
Global Ocean Circulation More Vulnerable to Shutdown than We Thought 0117.rtf
Greenland Ice Melt Could Push Atlantic Circulation to Collapse 0117.rtf
How Climate Change Could Jam the World's Ocean Circulation 0916.rtf
Southern Ocean Is Getting Less Salty. What That Means for the Rest of Earth 0816.rtf
US East Coast Snowstorms Linked to Slowdown of Atlantic Current 0116.rtf
Concerns Deepen about a Climate-Change ‘Wild Card’ 0915.rtf - slowdown & stop in global thermohaline circulation
Going with the Flow - Scientists Probe Changes in the East Australian Current 0515.rtf
How Tiny Sea Animals Affect Ocean Currents 0914.rtf
Desert Dust Feeds Deep Ocean Life 0714.rtf
Scientists Warn of 'Deadly Trio' Risk to Ailing Oceans 1013.rtf - acidification, warming, oxygen depletion
Warming Oceans Will Affect the Planet's Poorest 1013.rtf
Climate Change Moves Nemo Current to the South 1013.rtf
Lower Ocean Salinity Intensifies Rain Extremes 0412.rtf
Huge Growing Pool of Arctic Water Could Cool Europe 0112.rtf
World Oceans in Shocking Decline 0611.rtf
80% of Pacific Islands Not Shrinking 0610
Gulf Stream Is Not Slowing Down 0310.rtf
Warming Cuts Ocean Oxygen Content 0508.rtf
Scientists Spot Warning Signs of Gulf Stream Collapse 0821.rtf - take 1 on study
Section Map: Water