Below are 2 slides from a presentation by Tom Mathews, based on the peer-reviewed article by him and others, "Mortality impacts of the most extreme heat events", in Nature Reviews Earth and Environment. Feb. 4, 2005
The dark red areas are viewed as uninhabitable, at 2.7°C warming (about 1.3° above the current level).
As Earth continues warming, more of it will become too hot and humid for humans to survive very long. That portion now is very small - bits around the Persian Gulf and some other tropical coasts on some summer afternoons. But it will grow.
Heat stroke damages the brain & other organs. It kills 10% of victims. It often follows heat cramps, fainting, or heat exhaustion. U.S. heat stroke rates were highest in Arizona (1.7 deaths per 100,000), Nevada (1.0) and Missouri (0.8).
When conditions are too humid and hot, the body can no longer cool itself by sweating. Heat stroke can follow quickly.
Heat Is Testing the Limits of Human Survivability. Here’s How It Kills. 0724.rtf
Maps below show number of days with a wet-bulb temperature > 31°C [88°F],
for future global temperatures: 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°
This > 31°C day-night average is difficult to survive for days on end.
Highest THI (95-100°F) is in S TX & E Baja. THI 90-95°F in FL panhandle, SE of Yuma AZ & 40% of TX. Some Category II (FL, some GA-AL-MS & AZ, most of TX), but no Category III (105-129°F) in the US this day. Category III (THI 105-115°F) ocurred after noon.
Hot Weather is Killing More than Half a Million People a Year 1025.rtf
Extreme Heat Is Making Toxins Even More Dangerous to Farmworkers 1025.rtfProtecting Workers from Injuries during Extreme Heat 1025.rtfHow a Warming Planet Is Wreaking Havoc on Your Skin 1025.rtfJapan Sees Record Number Treated for Heat Stroke in Hottest-Ever Summer 1025.rtfClimate Change Led to at Least 16,500 Heat Deaths in Europe in Summer 2025 - 0925.rtf - For people in 854 urban areas, representing only 1/3 of Europe's population.Europe Suffered over 62,700 Heat-Related Deaths in 2024 - 0925.rtfHeat Stress Is a Major Driver of India’s Kidney Disease Epidemic 0925.rtf - Heat-induced kidney disease affects 14-60% of Indians surveyed. As it progresses, it leads to need for dialysis and transplants, even death. It comes from working long hours in the hot sun and is exacerbated by insufficient water intake.Warming from Tropical Deforestation Linked to 28,000 Excess Deaths per Year 0825.rtfExtreme Heat Could Triple Lost Work Hours by Century’s End 0825.rtfMeet the Humans inside a 104°F Heat Lab 0825.rtfHeat Waves Are Making People Age Faster 0825.rtfMonkeys Falling from Trees, Baking Barnacles - How Heat Drives Animals Extinct 0825.rtfRise in Extreme Heat Spurs Efforts to Keep Workers Safe, Draft OSHA Standard 0825.rtfClimate Breakdown Tripled Death Toll in Europe’s June Heat Wave 0725.rtfExtreme Heat Is Killing European Workers despite Government Efforts 0725.rtfChina's Blistering Heat Leaves Workers Exposed as Gig Economy Booms 0725.rtfBurning Fossil Fuels Caused 1,500 Deaths in Recent European Heat Wave 0725.rtfAmid Brutal Heat Wave, Officials Stress Health Risks of Hot Nights 0625.rtfUS Labor Advocates Demand Heat Protections for Workers as Planet Warms 0625.rtfWarming Climate Is Already Too Hot to Handle for 2% of Amphibians 0525.rtfHeat’s All-Cause Death Toll Mounts, Europe’s by 30% in 20 Years, to 175,000 a Year.0425.rtfLost in the Heat - the Critical Miscalculation in India’s Heat Wave Mortality Data 0425.rtfThe World Is Heating Up. How Much Can Our Bodies Handle? 0425.rtfExtreme Heat Could Double Impacts of Heart Disease by 2050 - 0325.rtfExtreme Heat Deprives Millions of Children of Education 0325.rtfColorado Bill Would Set Worker Safety Standards for Extreme Heat and Cold 0325.rtfExtreme Heat Linked to Accelerated Aging in Older Adults 0225.rtfStudy Projects Millions of European Heat Deaths as World Warms 0125.rtfHumid Heat Is Exceeding Human Tolerance & Is Causing Mass Mortality 1224.rtfClimate Crisis Exposed People to 6 Extra Weeks of Dangerous Heat in 2024 - 1224.rtfSunbelt’s Growing Population Faces Increasing Climate Hazards 1224.rtfScientists Just Confirmed the Largest Bird-Killing Event in Modern History 1224.rtfExtreme Heat-Related Deaths May Be Affecting the Young More than the Old 1224.rtfWarning From a California Marine Heat Wave 1224.rtf8 X More Children Will Face Extreme Heat Waves by 2050s - UNICEF 1124.rtfVoter Campaigns Target Latinas Worried about Climate Change 1024.rtfClick for morePlaygrounds are dangerous, even very dangerous, in the heat
Extreme Heat Will Change Us 1222.rtf - health, adaptation, inequality, the future - The story compares laborers and other people in Kuwait and Basra, Iraq. Kuwaiti citizens (but not laborers). Most Kuwaitis avoid going outside. Air conditioning is a rare luxury in Basra (Garden of Eden land), where it got to 164°F on the welder's benchtop and 179°F on a tire swing on a playground. The struggle to sweat and cool off increases risk of kidney stones and kidney disease. The welder's body temperature rose 3°C, a dangerous fever, from the outdoor heat. Chronic dehydration abounds in Basra.
35°C wet-bulb temperature (gray) is lethal. It depends highly on relative humidity.
Too Hot to Live - Millions Worldwide Will Face Unbearable Temperatures 0621.rtf
- A MUST read: long, detailed and wide-reaching.
Potentially Fatal Combinations of Humidity and Heat Emerging across the Globe 0520.rtf - take 2.
See wet bulb temperatures. At the original URL (here), zoom in and out for more detail, including all place names, dates, and wet bulb termperatures recorded. Using hourly data insteada of daily average data, it appears that 10 places have already equalled or exceeded the 35°C threshold of human survivability (lethal wet bulb temperature). These include 3 in Mexico, 2 each in Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and 1 each in India, Australia, and Venezuela. A wet-bulb temperature calculator is here.
Surge In ‘Danger Days’ Just around the Corner 0815.rtf
Portland, ME, Flint, MI & Rochester, NY are set to each go from 0 danger days to more than 60 / year by 2050.
Days above 95°F will roughly triple. (See Figure 1, partly excerpted above.) This includes 75-100 such days a year for southern Illinois (Carbondale, Cairo, Vincennes, plus Decauter) and more than half of Missouri (St. Louis, Cape Girardeau, Joplin, Sedalia, Rolla, Poplar Bluff, Hannibal, etc.) It also includes Evansville IN and sliver of Ohio between Portsmouth and Marietta and Iowa north of Hannibal. This is almost as hot as Las Vegas.
The Midwest in particular will experience rising temperatures, in terms of warmer winters more than unbearable summers. But by the end of the century, the average Midwesterner will likely see 22 to 77 days per year over 95°F, compared to only 3, on average, over the past 30 years.
There is a 5% (or more) chance that 125-150 days a year will exceed 95°F in much the same area (plus Terre Haute and Jasper IN and Effingham IL, but minus Hannibal and Sedalia MO). See the rest of Figure 1 in the report.
These compare to 114 days above 95°F for Las Vegas in 2014, 95 such days in 2013, and 115 in 2012. The southern Midwest can become hotter than Las Vegas by the end of the century (or a little later), if current emission trends continue.
Below at right, Category II probably corresponds to green in the colored table above (THI 90-104°F), Category III to yellow (105-129°F), and Category IV to red (130°F +).
Below, based on current emission trends (maps from Figure 3 in the report), summers in Missouri, Illinois, and Indiana grow hotter by 2100 than Texas and Arizona ones today. Iowa and Ohio ones grow as hot as Texas ones now. Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin summers grow almost as hot.
At right, heat stroke days will increase dramatically by the end of the century, from none now. Most of Missouri, Illinois and Indiana would suffer 40-60 days a year of dangerous heat: as bad (hot and humid) as anywhere in Texas. Ohio and Iowa would see 30-50 such days a year.
Worse, all of Illinois - and most of Missouri, Iowa, and Indiana - would experience 10-25 days a year of extremely dangerous heat: hotter (wet bulb) than anywhere in Texas.
In fact, “On our current path, the Midwest will likely see an average of as many as 3 days per year of Category IV conditions, which have never been experienced in the U.S. to date.”
Section Map: Bio Impacts