Conflict & Violence

2016-2026 Articles

UK Environmental Intelligence Assessment Sees Catastrophic Security Risks 0226.rtf - Among other things, the report "warns that an ensuing period of ecosystem collapse could have “catastrophic” consequences for human food, water, and natural resource systems.
It projects that tipping points in many global critical ecosystems could be crossed within the next 2 decades.
As resources shrink and shocks cascade, severe security risks will rise across all sectors.

Some Climate Shocks Can Increase the Likelihood of War 0526.rtfHeat Waves, Floods and Wildfires Pose Rising Threat to Democracy 0426.rtf - many elections disruptedIran War Sparks Renewables Boom as Europeans Rush to Buy Solar, Heat Pumps and EVs 0326.rtfThe Perfect Storm - Accelerating Climate Change Meets El Niño & Middle East War 0326.rtfWater, Power, and the Future of Conflict 0226.rtfNature Loss Is a National Security Risk, UK Intelligence Group Warns 0126.rtfPentagon Retreats from Climate Fight, Even as Heat and Storms Slam Troops 1025.rtfDefense Budgets Need to Fight War and Climate Change 0625.rtfClimate Breakdown Is a Bigger Threat than China and Russia 0924.rtfNATO Report Outlines Growing Climate Risks to Global Security 0724.rtfClimate-Security Risks Are Too Hot to Handle for Australian Government 0524.rtfHeat Worsens Hunger in Yemen 1023.rtf - In the middle of a years-long civil war, it is very, very hot. By 2030, the Red Sea coastal city or Hodeida will have 152 days per year, nearly 5 full months, when conditions are so dangerous that spending a short amount of time outside — even in the shade — could threaten a person’s health.How Climate Change Drives Conflict and War Crimes around the Globe 1023.rtfThese Are the Places That Could Become ‘Unlivable’ as Earth Warms 1023.rtfUS Road Rage Boils Over as Country Sizzles 0723.rtfClick for more

2015 Articles and earlier

Climate Change and Conflict, a Perfect Storm 1115.rtfBritain’s Prince Charles Links Syria War to Climate Change 1115.rtfConflict Makes Countries More Vulnerable to Climate Change 1115.rtfHow Climate Change Is Threatening Iraq’s Fragile Security 1015.rtfHow Climate Change Became a National Security Problem 1015.rtf - highlighted in Democratic Presidential primary debateForget about Saving Energy. This Is about Saving Lives. 0815.rtfDefense Department to Congress - Global Warming Is a Security Threat Now 0715.rtfTreat Climate Change as Seriously as National Security 0715.rtf - take 1 on studyGlobal Warming May Fuel Terrorism 0715.rtf - take 2, less detailed, more contextDrought, Expanding Deserts and ‘Food for Jihad' Drive Mali's Conflict 0415.rtfDoes Climate Change Really Cause Conflict? 0315.rtfSeeds of War 0315.rtfA Thirsty, Violent World 0215.rtfThe Pentagon & Climate Change - How Deniers Put National Security at Risk 0215.rtfClimate Stresses Push Kashmir's Poor into Militancy, Pakistan Experts Warn 0115.rtfHow Climate Change Helped ISIS 1014.rtfRetired Rear Admiral David Titley Talk Warns of Climate Change Conflicts 1114.rtfGround Water Depletion Driving Global Conflicts 1114.rtfClimate Change a 'Threat Multiplier’ for Farming-Dependent Nations 1014.rtfClimate Change Could Create More Boko Haram Extremists 1014.rtfThere’s a Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change and Violence 1014.rtfPentagon Signals Security Risks of Climate Change 1014.rtfSec Defense Hagel - Climate Change Will Challenge US Military 1014.rtf - Hagel introduces trhe report summarized above.Poorest People Are Being Driven to Extremist Groups 0914.rtfIs Climate Change (Drought) Destabilizing Iraq? 0914.rtf5 Reasons NATO Needs to Worry about Climate Change 0914.rtfMideast Water Wars - in Iraq, a Battle for Control of Water 0814.rtfHow Climate Change, Declining Food Sources Lead to Piracy, Poverty, Strife 0714.rtf4-Star Warning - Generals Dub Climate Change a Security Risk 0514.rtfDoes Unusual Weather Cause More Crime? 0414.rtfWarming Can Lead to Warmer Tempers, Worsening Global Security - IPCC 0314.rtfHow Climate Change is Helping Al Qaeda 1213.rtfAs Arctic Ice Melts, U.S. Military Adapts Strategy, Forces 1113.rtfWhy Global Water Shortages Pose Threat of Terror and War 0214.rtfQuantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict - Hsiang 0913.pdfConflicts & Warming, Meta-Analysis of 60 Studies - Hsiang 0913.pdfClimate Change May Increase Violence 0813.rtfClimate Change Poses Grave Threat to Security 0613.rtfMilitary - US Has Misguided Fixation with Domestic Drilling 0613.rtfCould a Greener Military Prove More Powerful 0513.rtfWater as Vital to National Security as Armies 0313.rtfTop US Admiral Calls Climate Change Top Security Threat 0313.rtfClimate Change and Rising Food Prices Heightened Arab Spring 0313.rtfClimate Change Links to Conflict Draws UN Attention 0213.rtfClimate Change Threatens National Security 1112.rtfClimate Warming Drives Conflict over Food 1012.rtf - 16,000 armed conflicts in 9 East Aftrican countries, 1990-2009.Climate Change Is Grave Threat to Security and Health 1011.rtf - British military expertsClimate Cycles Linked to Wars 0810.rtf - El Niño doubles risk of civil wars across 90 tropical countries.Climate Change Threatens World Peace 0711.rtfCIA on Security Impacts of Climate Change 0111.rtfWarming Can Bring Conflict to Arctic 1010.rtfMilitary- Climate Change a Catalyst for Conflict 0710.rtfDoD Seek More Explicit Climate Models & Risks 0610.rtfClimate Change Impacts U.S. Security 1208.rtfWarming = Less Food = More Wars 1109.rtf - Armed conflict in Africa 50% is more likely in unusually warm years.Climate Change Threat to US 0809.rtf - War games, intelligence studies, National Defense University, etc.Warming & Wars Update 1108.rtf - deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, etc.US Climate Indifference Sparks Terrorism 0408.rtfCIA+ Climate Change Threatens Security 0608.rtf - summary of National Intelligence Assessment, belowWarming and Wars 0407.rtf - summary of study belowNational Security & Climate Change - CNA 0407.pdf - 68 ppPentagon - Abrupt Climate Change 1003.pdf - 22 pp. Abrupt slowing of world thermohaline ocean circulation system brings abrupt temperature changes, causing food and water shortages, followed by resource wars.Niger Desertification Forces Farmers into Armed Radical Groups 0613.rtfIntelligence Assessment on Climate Change 0608.pdf - 21 ppAge of Consequences 1107.pdf 124 pp

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict - Hsiang 0913.pdf - meta-analysis of 60 studies. Graphs below tell the story. Some come from studies further down the page, some from other studies. Below, SD = standard deviation.

Rainfall changes (mostly drying) are drivers in panels D, G, H & K below, temperature for the other 8.