Conflict & Violence

2016-2024 Articles

Climate-Security Risks Are Too Hot to Handle for Australian Government 0524

Heat Worsens Hunger in Yemen 1023 - In the middle of a years-long civil war, it is very, very hot.  By 2030, the Red Sea coastal city or Hodeida will have 152 days per year, nearly 5 full months, when conditions are so dangerous that spending a short amount of time outside — even in the shade — could threaten a person’s health.

How Climate Change Drives Conflict and War Crimes around the Globe 1023

US Road Rage Boils Over as Country Sizzles 0723

How Climate Change Inflames Extremist Insurgency in Africa 0723

Guam Typhoon Highlights Threat to US Military’s Pacific Strategy 0523

Spies Worry that a Sun-Blocking ‘Climate Solution’ Could Trigger War 0223

Water Shortages Threaten to Increase Violence and Disappearances in Mexico 0223

Climate Change is Fueling Conflict and Migration in Lake Chad 0123

Climate Change Puts More Women at Risk for Domestic Violence 0123

Almost 8,000 US Shootings per Year Associated with Hot Weather 1222

Climate Change Is Making People Angrier Online 0922

How Drought and War Are Really Affecting the Global Food Supply 0922

From Africa, Climate Change Amplifies Risk of Conflict 0722

Fiji Says Asia’s Biggest Security Threat Is Climate Change, Not Conflict 0622

Climate Action as Patriotism 0422 - U.S.

Encroaching Desert Intensifies Nigeria’s Farmer-Herder Crisis 0422

Climate Clues from the Past Prompt a New Look at History 1221 - more precise numbers than used in the charts under Conflict 2, below.  Basically the same story, but by history researchers - working with natural scientists on climate from centuries ago.

Conflict and Climate Change Are Big Barriers for Africa’s Great Green Wall 1121

Senior Pentagon Official Warns that US Military Is Not Ready for Climate Change 1121 - damage from storms etc., logistics, mission change toward humanitarian

Climate Change Is Poised to Alter the Face of Global Conflict 0919  - excerpt: "the specter of climate upheaval … is acting as an accelerant of global conflict, plunging nationalist powers into a regressive rivalry to seize scarce resources and deny access to putative outsiders of all descriptions.” ….  "The ethno-nationalist backlash in most industrial Western powers has spurred the rise of an eco-fascist ideology."

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Warmer World Is a More Violent One - Leaders to UN 0921

Military Operations Will be Strained by Climate Change 0621

The Climate Crisis Is Driving Violent Conflicts over Farmland, Nigeria’s Example 0521

Facing Sweltering Soldiers and Flooded Ports, NATO to Focus on Climate Change 0321

Why the Pentagon Is Serious about Reducing Its Carbon Footprint 0321

Water Hot Spot Chad Has a Volatile Mix of Climate Change, Pandemic, Violence 0820

Climate Change Leads to More Violence against Women, Girls 0220

Arizona Military Base Will Be Hardest Hit by Climate Change 1119

Climate Change Is Benefiting Terrorists In Somalia 1019

The U.S. Navy Has a Water Problem 0919 - navy bases in Norfolk, etc., from sea level rise

How Terrorists Leverage Climate Change 0919 - weaponized fire and water

Cameroon Conflict Turns Climate-Stressed Farmers into ‘Food Beggars' 0719

Will Climate Change Lead to More World Conflict? 0719

Climate Change Compounds Hunger, Conflicts, German Aid Group Says 0619

Climate Change Is Not Causing Wars – Yet 0619

Running Dry - Competing for Water on a Thirsty Planet 0619

Climate Change Forcing Military to Reconsider Its Priorities 0519

Climate Change Will Fuel More Wars and Displacement in the Middle East 0219 - take 1 on Hague conference

Climate Change an 'Imminent' Security Threat, Risk Experts Say 0219 - take 2 on Hague conference

Climate Change a Threat to World Order, Munich Security Conference Hears 0219

Pentagon Warns of Dire Risk to Bases, Troops From Climate Change 0119

Climate Change Is Aggravating the Suffering in Yemen 1118

Drought Puts Iraq at Risk of Jihadist Resurgence 0918

Climate Kings 0718 - descent to strongmen, as influx of refugees intensifies

Putting the Climate-Conflict Hypothesis to the Test 0618 - The failure of political systems is the primary cause of conflict and displacement of large numbers of people.  We also demonstrate that within socially and geopolitically fragile systems, climate change may potentially exacerbate the situation, particularly with regards to enforced migration.

The Military Paid for a Study on Sea Level Rise.  The Results Were Scary. 0418

     Half is about effect on US military bases, especially Pacific Islands, but also Atlantic Coast bases.

Climate Change Threatens National Security with Instability, Uncertainty, Chaos 0418

More Frequent Drought in Somalia Breeds Conflict over Fertile Land 0318

Does Climate Change Cause More War? 0218 - "Are we looking at night only under the streetlight?” effect

Iran Protests Have a Long-Simmering Factor - Climate Change 0118

7 Surprising Effects That Climate Change Will Throw Us 1117 - #4 is we will turn more violent.

Australia Faces Climate Disaster on Its Doorstep, White Paper Warns 1117

Climate Change and Water Woes Drove ISIS Recruiting in Iraq 1117

Climate Change – Catalyst for Conflict 1117 - In Africa & Middle East, 10% of economic output, 20% in tropics, is lost to sinking agricultural and labor productivity.

When Egypt’s Pharaohs Mishandled Climate Disasters.  Then the People Revolted. 1017

Climate Change Did Not Cause Syrian War 1017

How Climate Denial Threatens National Security 0717

Australia Warned It Radically Underestimated Climate Change Security Threat 0617

Climate Change Will Fuel Terrorism Recruitment 0417

Trump’s Defense Secretary Cites Climate Change as National Security Challenge 0317

When Climate Change Starts Wars 0217 - Central Asia becomes a tinder box as water is scarcer.

Who's Still Fighting Climate Change?  The U.S. Military 0217

How Climate Change in Central Asia Threatens to Spark Regional Conflict 0117

Climate Change Will Stir ‘Unimaginable' Refugee Crisis, Says Military 1216

Military Leaders Urge Trump to See Climate as a Security Threat 1116

Military View - Climate Change Erodes Our National Security.  We Should Prepare. 1016

Climate Change Is Already Destabilizing Communities Worldwide 0916

Military Experts Say Climate Change Poses 'Significant Risk' to Security 0916

Blame Global Warming for Your Bad Attitude 0916

Climate Change Increases the Risk of War 0716

What You Need to Know About the World's Water Wars 0716

Murders, Violence on Rise, as Parched Central India Battles for Water 0616

Preventing Tomorrow’s Climate Wars 0516 - long analysis of US DOD plans in Africa, Pacific, East Asia & Arctic

Food System Shock - Climate Change's Greatest Threat to Civilization 0416

Urban Population Growth and Demand for Food Could Spark Global Unrest 0416

125-Year Mini Ice Age Linked to the Plague and Fall of Empires 0216

2015 Articles and earlier

Climate Change and Conflict, a Perfect Storm 1115

Britain’s Prince Charles Links Syria War to Climate Change 1115

Conflict Makes Countries More Vulnerable to Climate Change 1115

How Climate Change Is Threatening Iraq’s Fragile Security 1015

How Climate Change Became a National Security Problem 1015 - highlighted in Democratic Presidential primary debate

Forget about Saving Energy.  This Is about Saving Lives. 0815

Defense Department to Congress - Global Warming Is a Security Threat Now 0715

Treat Climate Change as Seriously as National Security 0715 - take 1 on study

Global Warming May Fuel Terrorism 0715 - take 2, less detailed, more context

Drought, Expanding Deserts and ‘Food for Jihad' Drive Mali's Conflict 0415

Does Climate Change Really Cause Conflict? 0315

Seeds of War 0315

A Thirsty, Violent World 0215

The Pentagon & Climate Change - How Deniers Put National Security at Risk 0215

Climate Stresses Push Kashmir's Poor into Militancy, Pakistan Experts Warn 0115

How Climate Change Helped ISIS 1014

Retired Rear Admiral David Titley Talk Warns of Climate Change Conflicts 1114

Ground Water Depletion Driving Global Conflicts 1114

Climate Change a 'Threat Multiplier’ for Farming-Dependent Nations 1014

Climate Change Could Create More Boko Haram Extremists 1014

There’s a Surprisingly Strong Link Between Climate Change and Violence 1014

Pentagon Signals Security Risks of Climate Change 1014

Sec Defense Hagel - Climate Change Will Challenge US Military 1014 - Hagel introduces trhe report summarized above.

Poorest People Are Being Driven to Extremist Groups 0914

Is Climate Change (Drought) Destabilizing Iraq? 0914

5 Reasons NATO Needs to Worry about Climate Change 0914

Mideast Water Wars - in Iraq, a Battle for Control of Water 0814

How Climate Change, Declining Food Sources Lead to Piracy, Poverty, Strife 0714

4-Star Warning - Generals Dub Climate Change a Security Risk 0514

Does Unusual Weather Cause More Crime? 0414

Warming Can Lead to Warmer Tempers, Worsening Global Security - IPCC 0314

Why Global Water Shortages Pose Threat of Terror and War 0214

How Climate Change is Helping Al Qaeda 1213

As Arctic Ice Melts, U.S. Military Adapts Strategy, Forces 1113

Global Warming (& Drying) Increases Violence 0813 - brief text summary of study below

Climate Change Poses Grave Threat to Security - British (& US) Rear Admiral(s) 0613

Climate Change Bigger Security Threat Than Oil Dependence - US Center for Naval Analyses 0613
    Military says US politicians have misguided fixation with domestic drilling.

Niger Desertification Forces Farmers into Armed Radical Groups 0613 

Could a Greener Military Prove More Powerful? 0513 

Water as Vital to National Security as Armies 0313 

Top US Admiral Calls Climate Change Top Security Threat 0313 

Rising Food Prices (Credit Climate Change) Heightened Arab Spring 0313 

Links between Conflict and Climate Change Draw UN Attention 0213 

Climate Change Threatens National Security - National Research Council, for CIA 1112 

Climate Warming Drives Conflict over Food 1012
    16,000 armed conflicts in 9 East Aftrican countries, 1990-2009.

List of Failing States 1012     2012 (2011 data), top 20 in order, from worst: Somalia, Congo (Zaire), Sudan, South Sudan*, Chad, Zimbabwe, Afghanistan, Haiti, Yemen, Iraq, Central African Repubic, Ivory Coast, Guinea, Pakistan, Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau, Kenya, Ethiopia, Burundi, Niger, Uganda

Climate Change Is Grave Threat to Security and Health 1011  - British military experts

Climate Change Threatens World Peace - UN's Steiner 0711

CIA on Security Impacts of Climate Change 0111 

Warming Can Spark Arctic Conflict in Coming Years 1010 

Climate Cycles Linked to Wars 0810 - El Niño doubles risk of civil wars across 90 tropical countries.

Climate Change Is a Catalyst for Conflict: a Global Threat Multiplier 0710 

Defense Department in US Seeks More Explicit Climate Models for Risks 0610 

Warming = Less Food = More Wars 1109
    Armed conflict in Africa 50% is more likely in unusually warm years.

Climate Is Change Threat to US 0809
    War games, intelligence studies, National Defense University, etc.

Climate Change Impacts U.S. Security - Quadrennial Defense Review 1208 

Warming & Wars Update 1108 - deputy director of national intelligence for analysis, etc.

Climate Change Threatens Security - CIA + 0608 - summary of National Intelligence Assessment, below

National Intelligence Assessment on the National Security Implications of Global Climate Change to 2030 - 0608 - PDF, 21 pp

US Climate Indifference Sparks Terrorism 0408

Age of Consequences: Foreign Policy and National Security Implications of Global Climate Change - Center for Strategic and International Studies 1107 - PDF, 124 pp

Warming and Wars 0407 - summary of study below

National Security & Climate Change - CNA Corp. (11 retired US Generals & Admirals) 0407 - PDF, 68 pp

Abrupt Climate Change - for Pentagon 1003 - PDF, 22 pp.  Abrupt slowing of world thermohaline ocean circulation system brings abrupt temperature changes, causing food and water shortages, followed by resource wars.

Quantifying the Influence of Climate on Human Conflict - Hsiang 0913 - PDF, meta-analysis of 60 studies.  Graphs below tell the story.  Some come from studies further down the page, some from other studies.  Below, SD = standard deviation.

Rainfall changes (mostly drying) are drivers in panels D, G, H & K below, temperature for the other 8.

Dotted lines come at 1,000 year intervals.

2,600 years of European history

China graph spans 2070 BC - 1450 AD.  Titanium count is proxy for strength of winter monsoon winds & rain.

Section Map: Costs, Wars, Migrate +