Dr. Fry’s analysis is based most of all on the Vostok ice cores over the past 430,000 years. And on other researchers’ findings on conditions some 4 and 14 million years ago. See above, but below notably Tripati 1209, Csank 0311, Pagani 1209, and Shevenell 0208.
‘We are damned fools’ - Scientist Who Sounded Climate Alarm in 1980s Warns of Worse to Come 0723 - Dr. James Hansen and others interviewed.
The world is moving towards a “new climate frontier”, with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years.... This is due to what Hansen said was an “unprecedented” imbalance in the amount of energy coming into the planet from the sun, versus the energy reflected away from Earth.... As heat waves strafe populations unacustomed to extreme temperatures, forests burn, and marine life struggles to cope with soaring ocean heat, the current upward spike is occurring at a pace not seen since the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.... It's the rate of change that's the issue.
We have been staring this in the face as scientists for decades, but now the world is going through that same process, which is like the 5 stages of grief, another scientist said. “It’s painful to watch people go through it. “But we can’t simply give up because the situation is dire,” Huber added. “We need to say ‘Here is where we need to invest and make changes and innovate’ and not give up. We can’t just write off billions of people.”
The following figure tells the story based on real world data, not on idealized models by IPCC or anyone else that fail to capture the ine key natural feedbacks and stochastic events in the real world, see:
https://www.globalcoral.org/bad- science-and-good-intentions-prevent-effective-climate-action/
Labels in chart (10, 20, 30, 31, 44, 52, etc.) indicate specific age bins, in millions of years.
Fig. 3. Application of the Category 1 CO, record to determine ESS(co2). GMST deviation (kelvin) from preindustrial global average surface temperature of 14.15°C is displayed versus paleo-CO, doublings relative to the preindustrial baseline of 280 ppm (upper x axis) and paleo-CO, estimates on a log scale (lower x axis). The slopes between two points in time reflect the average ESS;co2). Circles reflect 500-kyr binned Category 1 CO, estimates paired with corresponding GMST means from (43); squares pair CO, and GMST means from compilations of sea surface temperature (45) in seven coarsely resolved time intervals. Note that this figure omits the Pliocene temperature estimate of (45) because it samples too short a time interval (compare with Fig. 2) to be comparable with mean CO>. Data from Cenozoic epochs are color coded and shift from red (Paleocene) to yellow (Pleistocene); labels indicate specific age bins (Ma). Dashed lines indicate
preference ESSjcoz) lines of 8° and 5°C warming per doubling of CO2.
7 world region temps back
What's the Hottest Earth Has Ever Been? 0620.rtf - 3,700°F in Hadean era, not long after formation of Earth, in the aftermath of the Moon's formation. Since Snowball Earth about 800 million years ago (Mya), Earth's surface temperatures reached around 90°F repeatedly, as recently as 92 Mya. 73°F during PETM, 55 Mya. Earth's surface is currently near 60°, during an interglacial, but with much ice still at both poles. Earth has rarely been as cold as the ice ages of the past 2-3 million years. Not since long ice ages about 270 Mya.
Preliminary results from a Smithsonian Institution project led by Scott Wing and Paul Huber, show Earth's average surface temperature over the past 500 million years. For most of the time, global temperatures appear to have been too warm (red portions of line) for persistent polar ice caps. The most recent 50 million
years are an exception. Image adapted from Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History.
Global surface temperatures were generally high throughout the Paleocene and Eocene, with a particularly warm spike at the boundary between the two geological epochs around 56 million years ago. Temperatures in the distant past are inferred from proxies, in this case, oxygen isotope ratios from fossil foraminifera,
single-celled marine organisms. "Q" stands of Quaternary. Graphic produced using data from Zachos and Hansen, with help from Dr. Carrie Morrill, Director of the World Data Service for Paleoclimatology.
Coupling CO2 to Ice & Sea Level Over 20 Million Years - Tripati 1209.pdf
See figure below (part of Fig. 1 in article.)
Geologic Record & Climate Change 0105.pdf
Patterson re-makes the case (from 1991 and 1997 by Friis-Christensen and Svensmark) that warming (and cloudiness) in the past century has been tied to variations in solar output.
However, at least 38% of annual sunspot numbers in Patterson's graph 1 (after 1934) appear too low (none shown as over 85, but 17 were actually over 100, including 4 over 149, and 1 over 200).
The high correlation between solar irradiance and cosmic rays measured on Earth is to be expected, as the sun’s magnetosphere waxes and wanes, coincident with the sunspot cycle.
Low clouds generally cool Earth; they correlate reasonably well with solar irradiance and cosmic rays. However, not shown are high clouds, which generally warm Earth; they too vary with solar irradinace and cosmic rays, probably more strongly than low clouds do.
This tends to [more than?] offset the cooling effect of more low clouds when cosmic rays increase. That is, the cloud elevation difference explains why surface temperatures correlate poorly with cosmic ray flux variations. But the correlation is much better before the human emissions component overwhelmed the solar the solar variation component of surface temperature change, that is before 1990 or 2000.
Patterson's graph for the North America temperature anomaly only.
For perspective, see "∆T, CO2, SO4, Sun" under Temperature Analysis on the Data page. Three files go thru 2004, 2009, and 2012. Statistical ties to the sun grow weaker from the 2004 edition to the 2012 edition. "Sun" there was sunspot number, not sunspot cycle length.
What I would like to draw your attention to is the level of CO2 levels, as preserved in prehistoric air bubbles, from very high quality ice core records from Antarctica. When researchers first looked at the results from these cores they observed a repeating correlation between CO2 and temperature through several glacial / interglacial cycles.
However, when they began to look at higher resolution cycles they say something different. They observed that temperature would rise first, then CO2.
This correlation indicates that, as one might expect as temperatures warm, biological productivity increases, resulting in more CO2 in the atmosphere. The lag between CO2 and rising or falling CO2 levels is something like 800 years.
Also, sunspot cycle length was 12+ years from the 2001 maximum to the next maximum, probably after 2013, suggesting 0.7°C cooling, much more than we've experienced. Remember record US heat in 2012. This suggests a greatly increased role for greenhouse gases, relative to changes in solar output, epsecially after 2000.
Patterson's reasoning suggests the key role of a positive feedback loop, as permafrost thaws with warming, then adds carbon to the air. Carbon additions to the air from permafrost in recent years have been comparable to those from US vehicles. They are growing.
Paleotemperatures and ice volume of the past 27 Myr revisited with paired Mg:Ca and 18O:16O measurements on benthic foraminifera - Billups 0202.pdf - Temperatures related to ice volumes.
Fig. 1 - Records of key climate variables over the last 20 Myr.
Forcing of the model are changes in the stacked benthic 6180 record with respect to preindustrial times (a, dark blue, Zachos et al., 2008).
Output is a consistent record for the Northern Hemisphere temperature change with respect to pre-industrial conditions (b, green) and sea level (c, light blue). The reconstructed CO2 record (d, orange) is obtained by inverting the relation between NH tem- peratures and CO2 data. The ∂18O curve is smoothed in order to clarify the gradual decrease over time. Atl data are available every 0.1kyr. The thick lines represent 400-kyr running mean. Grey error bars indicate the standard deviation of model input and output. For CO2 the error bar is calculated as 400-kyr running mean, for the other records it is the standard deviation on the 0.1 kyr value as used in the model.
Regarding solar output changes, in contrast to Tim Patterson's graph above for North America until 1990, Earth's total land surface temperature diverged strongly from solar output after 2001, except for 2013-15 and 2020-21.
Still, sunspot numbers during the satellite era, particularly their square root, correlate well with solar output.
Section Map: Heat