Embedded Files
Dr. Fry’s analysis is based most of all on the Vostok ice cores over the past 430,000 years. And on other researchers’ findings on conditions some 4 and 14 million years ago. See above, but below notably Tripati 1209, Csank 0311, Pagani 1209, and Shevenell 0208.
Why 5 Million Years of Lethal Heat Followed End-Permian ‘Great Dying’ 0725.rtfHow Earth Got Its Ice Caps, Rare in Its History 0225.rtfBeholding the Arctic’s Wonders, and Its Melting Future 1224.rtfThe Surprising Place We Stand Now, vs Earth’s 485 Million Years of Climate 0924.rtfPrehistoric Earth Was Very Hot. That Offers Clues About Future Earth. 0924.rtfCO2 Puts Heavier Stamp on Temperature than Previously Thought 0624.rtf - from Abstract: “.... From 15.0-0.3 Myr ago, our reconstructed pCO2 values steadily decline from 650 ± 150 to 280 ± 75 ppmv, mirroring global temperature decline. Using our new range of pCO2 values, we calculate average Earth system sensitivity and equilibrium climate sensitivity, resulting in 13.9°C and 7.2°C per doubling of pCO2, respectively. These values are significantly higher than IPCC global warming estimations, consistent [with] or higher than some recent state-of-the-art climate models, and consistent with other proxy-based estimates.”Chemical Analysis of CO2 Rise over 50,000 Years Shows Rate Now is 10X Faster 0524.rtf - more than any other in the periodLong-Lost Greenland Ice Core Suggests Potential Disastrous Sea Level Rise 0723.rtf - Much of Greenland was ice-free around 416,000 years ago. Thus, Greenland has not been frozen for a million years. As the scientists started to sieve it to separate out the sediment, they were surprised to see twigs, mosses, leaves and seeds. “We have a fossilized frozen ecosystem here,” said Bierman, “And what that meant, of course, is the ice sheet had gone away, because you can’t grow plants under a mile of ice.” The potential implications for sea level rise are enormous, said a co-author, probably 10s of meters.
‘We are damned fools’ - Scientist Who Sounded Climate Alarm in 1980s Warns of Worse to Come 0723 - Dr. James Hansen and others interviewed.
The world is moving towards a “new climate frontier”, with temperatures higher than at any point over the past million years.... This is due to what Hansen said was an “unprecedented” imbalance in the amount of energy coming into the planet from the sun, versus the energy reflected away from Earth.... As heat waves strafe populations unacustomed to extreme temperatures, forests burn, and marine life struggles to cope with soaring ocean heat, the current upward spike is occurring at a pace not seen since the extinction of the dinosaurs 65 million years ago.... It's the rate of change that's the issue.
We have been staring this in the face as scientists for decades, but now the world is going through that same process, which is like the 5 stages of grief, another scientist said. “It’s painful to watch people go through it. “But we can’t simply give up because the situation is dire,” Huber added. “We need to say ‘Here is where we need to invest and make changes and innovate’ and not give up. We can’t just write off billions of people.”
The following figure tells the story based on real world data, not on idealized models by IPCC or anyone else that fail to capture the ine key natural feedbacks and stochastic events in the real world, see:
https://www.globalcoral.org/bad- science-and-good-intentions-prevent-effective-climate-action/
Labels in chart (10, 20, 30, 31, 44, 52, etc.) indicate specific age bins, in millions of years.
Fig. 3. Application of the Category 1 CO, record to determine ESS(co2). GMST deviation (kelvin) from preindustrial global average surface temperature of 14.15°C is displayed versus paleo-CO, doublings relative to the preindustrial baseline of 280 ppm (upper x axis) and paleo-CO, estimates on a log scale (lower x axis). The slopes between two points in time reflect the average ESS;co2). Circles reflect 500-kyr binned Category 1 CO, estimates paired with corresponding GMST means from (43); squares pair CO, and GMST means from compilations of sea surface temperature (45) in seven coarsely resolved time intervals. Note that this figure omits the Pliocene temperature estimate of (45) because it samples too short a time interval (compare with Fig. 2) to be comparable with mean CO>. Data from Cenozoic epochs are color coded and shift from red (Paleocene) to yellow (Pleistocene); labels indicate specific age bins (Ma). Dashed lines indicate
preference ESSjcoz) lines of 8° and 5°C warming per doubling of CO2.
How Does Today’s Extreme Heat Compare with Earth’s Past Climate? 0824.rtfNew Fossils Reveal an Ice-Free Greenland, in Bad News for Sea Level Rise 0824.rtfWhat Lessons Can We Learn from the Last Great Cooling-off Period? 0522.rtf - The story involves volcanoes, the oceans, variation in the sun’s output, and depopulation in the Americas from germs brought by Columbus and his successors.Global Warming 55 Million Years Ago Could Hint at Our Scorching Future 0821.rtf - Methane hydrates from the ocean floor unleashed average global surface tremperatures 11°C hotter than today. Consequences included hungrier insects, oceanic extinctions, rapid evolution, shrinking mammals, and strange new rains (water vapor transport from equator to poles) and danger zones, as ocean oxygen levels plummeted.The Alarming Power of Melting Arctic Ice 0621.rtf - At least 25 times in the past 120,000 years, Dansgaard-Oeschger events warmed Greenland more than 10°C in just a few decades. Widespread and rapid melting of ice in the Greenland, Norwegian, and Iceland Seas seem to have preceeded these rapid meltings. This sea ice melting allowed warm Atlantic water to penetrate northward, triggering or amplifying the warming air around Greenland.Study Finds 6°C Cooling on Land during the last Ice Age 0521.rtf11 of 12 Hottest Years Have Occurred since 2000 - 0420.rtf - "The last time the CO2 was this high was during the Pliocene, [around] 4 million years ago. Then temperatures were 3-4°C warmer than now and sea level was 20-30 meters higher."Antarctica Had a Polar Rainforest when Dinosaurs Roamed 0420.rtfA World of Searing Heat and Melted Ice Caps- Climate Model of Early Eocene Is ‘Scary Finding’ for Earth’s Future 0919.rtf - PETM 55 million years ago, and surrounding few million years. Global surface was 14°C hotter than now.CO2 Levels at Highest for 3 Million Years – When Seas Were 20 Meters Higher 0419.rtf - take 1 on studyThe Last Time CO2 Levels Were This High, Trees Grew at the South Pole 0419.rtf - take 2Rise of CO2–Absorbing Mountains in Tropics Set Thermostat for Global Climate? 1218.rtfGlobal Warming - Worrying Lessons from the PETM Past 0918.rtf - 5 to 8°C global warming in only 10,000 to 20,000 years. Flooding increased 8- to 14-fold in the Pyrenees. Fertile river plain turned into arid extensive gravel plains. Sea surface temperatures reached 36°C [97°F] in places, a lethal temperature for many organisms.Scientists Have Uncovered a Disturbing Climate Change Precedent 0818.rtf - PETM 55 million years ago. Temperatures were 10-15°C higher than now in Europe and New Zealand, with 40°C (104°F) heat waves for weeks at a time, actually normal for the PETM days. The tropics may have been a dead zone, with temperatures over 50°C (122°F) over much of Africa and South America. Tapirs lived near the North Pole and alligators on Ellesmere Island on the Arctic Ocean. Sea surface temperatures may have been 30°C (86°F) on the Antarctic coast. CO2 levels then were around 1,000 ppm. Changes to those conditions took place over 100s of 1,000s to millions of years; they may take only 1-3 centuries now.Palaeoclimate Constraints on the Impact of 2°C Anthropogenic Warming and Beyond.pdf - 12 pp
"Sustained warming at times over the past 3.5 million years has been accompanied by significant changes in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several meters on millennial timescales. Comparison of paleo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate the long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing, by as much as a factor of 2, and thus may underestimate centennial-to-millennial sea-level rise.
“Even if future emissions are reduced, warming will continue beyond 2100 for centuries, or even millennia, because of long-term feedbacks related to ice loss and the carbon cycle.”We Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118.rtf - highest CO2 in 12 million years, and 33 million years ago, ocean was 10°C warmer.Dead Sea Warns of Unprecedented Drought 0317.rtf - world 4°C hotter than now 115K years ago, Dead Sea rain down 80%1815 Tambora Eruption Showed Disaster from Even Small Climate Changes 0117.rtf - "year without a summer", widespread crop failures and spike in starvation.History Reveals Greenland Ice Might Melt Much Faster Than Believed 1216.rtf - ice-free 25% of last 1.4 million years2 Million Year Record Indicates 5°C Warming from 400 ppm CO2, 9° from 560 ppm 0916.rtf - take 1 on Snyder’s study. Her study is the basis Dr. Fry uses to convert polar to global temperatures.Earth Is Roughly Warmest in About 100,000 Years 0916.rtf - take 2 on Snyder’s study in NatureHuman-Induced Climate Change Began Earlier than Previously Thought 0816.rtfEarth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216.rtf'Medieval Warm Period' Wasn't Global or Even All That Warm, Study Says 1215.rtf - 900-1300 AD, peak ~ 950 ADUnprecedented 21st century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215.pdfUS 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future' 0215.rtf - summary of the above.
See Overviews page for an excerpt - using past to project the future.Plio-Pleistocene Climate Sensitivity Evaluated Using High-Resolution CO2 Records - Martinez-Boti 0215.pdf - AFTER removing ice sheet change albedo effects, climate sensitivity across millions of years falls in the 1.5-4.5°C per doubled CO2 range used by the IPCC.Climate sensitivity in a warmer world - Lea 2015.pdf - response in journal to the above articlePETM Spike Driven by Massive Carbon Release over 2 Decades.pdf3.5 Mya, Arctic Was Forested, Far Warmer 0513.rtf
"Sustained warming at times over the past 3.5 million years has been accompanied by significant changes in climate zones and the spatial distribution of land and ocean ecosystems. Sustained warming at this level has also led to substantial reductions of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, with sea-level increases of at least several meters on millennial timescales. Comparison of paleo observations with climate model results suggests that, due to the lack of certain feedback processes, model-based climate projections may underestimate the long-term warming in response to future radiative forcing, by as much as a factor of 2, and thus may underestimate centennial-to-millennial sea-level rise.
“Even if future emissions are reduced, warming will continue beyond 2100 for centuries, or even millennia, because of long-term feedbacks related to ice loss and the carbon cycle.”We Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118.rtf - highest CO2 in 12 million years, and 33 million years ago, ocean was 10°C warmer.Dead Sea Warns of Unprecedented Drought 0317.rtf - world 4°C hotter than now 115K years ago, Dead Sea rain down 80%1815 Tambora Eruption Showed Disaster from Even Small Climate Changes 0117.rtf - "year without a summer", widespread crop failures and spike in starvation.History Reveals Greenland Ice Might Melt Much Faster Than Believed 1216.rtf - ice-free 25% of last 1.4 million years2 Million Year Record Indicates 5°C Warming from 400 ppm CO2, 9° from 560 ppm 0916.rtf - take 1 on Snyder’s study. Her study is the basis Dr. Fry uses to convert polar to global temperatures.Earth Is Roughly Warmest in About 100,000 Years 0916.rtf - take 2 on Snyder’s study in NatureHuman-Induced Climate Change Began Earlier than Previously Thought 0816.rtfEarth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216.rtf'Medieval Warm Period' Wasn't Global or Even All That Warm, Study Says 1215.rtf - 900-1300 AD, peak ~ 950 ADUnprecedented 21st century Drought Risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215.pdfUS 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future' 0215.rtf - summary of the above.
See Overviews page for an excerpt - using past to project the future.Plio-Pleistocene Climate Sensitivity Evaluated Using High-Resolution CO2 Records - Martinez-Boti 0215.pdf - AFTER removing ice sheet change albedo effects, climate sensitivity across millions of years falls in the 1.5-4.5°C per doubled CO2 range used by the IPCC.Climate sensitivity in a warmer world - Lea 2015.pdf - response in journal to the above articlePETM Spike Driven by Massive Carbon Release over 2 Decades.pdf3.5 Mya, Arctic Was Forested, Far Warmer 0513.rtf
7 world region temps back
Paleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - Springer 1212.pdfMaking Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity - Hansen 1112.pdf - see Water page for sea level graphsExtreme Global Warming Caused Largest Extinction Ever 1012.rtfAntarctic Trees 16 MY Ago, Interglacial 0912.rtfPalm Trees Grew in Antarctica 0812.rtfReconstruction of a continuous high-resolution CO2 record over the past 20 million years - van de Wal 1211.pdf1st Land Plants Plunged Earth into Ice Age 0212.rtfEffects of 390 ppm CO2 3 Million Years Ago - Csank 0311.pdfClimate More Sensitive to CO2 0110.rtfCO2 & Temps to 5M Yrs Ago - Pagani 1209.pdf15 MY Record Finds High Warming Sensitivity to Doubled CO2 1009.rtfTropic Warm Pool Expanded Greatly ~4 Mya, +4°C Global - Brierly 0309.pdfGraph of CO2 Levels over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208.pdf - see top graph on Home pageClimate and CO2 Over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208.pdf - includes graph above & on Home pageLT CO2 Doubling Yield Twice the Warming We Thought - Paleoclimate 0908.rtfDeep Sea Temps + c. 15 Mya - Shevenell 0208.pdfCO2 Levels and Configuration of Continents 1206.pdf - includes graph at top of entire Heat section
More Articles
Centuries-Old Sea Sponges Suggest Global Warming Began 1700-1860, Now 1.7° 0224.rtfGlobal Warming in the Pipeline - Hansen 101523.pdfIs Climate Change Speeding Up? Here’s What Jim Hansen, Scientists Say. 1223.rtfThe Last Time Earth Was This Hot, Woolly Mammoths Roamed the Earth 0723.rtfLong-Lost Greenland Ice Core Suggests Potential Disastrous Sea Level Rise 0723.rtf‘We are damned fools’ - Scientist Who Sounded Climate Alarm in 1980s Warns of Worse to Come 0723.rtf - about Jim Hansen's "Global Warming in the Pipeline" studyWhat's the Hottest Earth Has Ever Been? 0620.rtfClick for moreMore Articles
Ancient DNA Shows What Greenland May Have Looked Like 2 Million Years Ago 1222.rtfReport of an Ancient Methane Release Raises Questions for Our Climate Future 0822.rtfWhat Lessons Can We Learn from the Last Great Cooling-off Period? 0522.rtfThe Last Time the World Was Warm 1121.rtfGlobal Warming 55 Million Years Ago Could Hint at Our Scorching Future 0821.rtfEarth Is Warmer than It’s Been in 125,000 Years 0821.rtfThe Alarming Power of Melting Arctic Ice 0621.rtfStudy Finds 6°C Cooling on Land during the last Ice Age 0521.rtfWorld Is Hottest in at Least 12,000 Years 0121.rtfEarth Hasn’t Warmed This Fast in 10s of Millions of Years 0920.rtfEarth Is Setting Heat Records. It Will Be Much Hotter One Day. 0820.rtf11 of 12 Hottest Years Have Occurred since 2000 - 0420.rtfAntarctica Had a Polar Rainforest when Dinosaurs Roamed 0420.rtfA World of Searing Heat and Melted Ice Caps - Climate Model of Early Eocene Is ‘Scary Finding’ for Earth’s Future 0919.rtfClimate Is Warming Much Faster than It Has in the Last 2,000 Years 0719.rtfRise of CO2–Absorbing Mountains in Tropics Set Thermostat for Global Climate? 1218.rtfAncient Upheavals Show How to Geo-Engineer a Stable Climate 0619.rtfWe Have 5 Years to Save Ourselves from Climate Change – Harvard Scientist 0118.rtfCO2 Levels at Highest for 3 Million Years – When Seas Were 20 Meters Higher 0419.rtfThe Last Time CO2 Levels Were This High, Trees Grew at the South Pole 0419.rtfGlobal Warming - Worrying Lessons from the PETM Past 0918.rtfScientists Have Uncovered a Disturbing Climate Change Precedent 0818.rtfAncient Flood Stalled Ocean Circulation, Plunging Northern Hemisphere into a Millennium of Glacial Conditions 0718.rtf1st Land Plants Plunged Earth into Ice Age 0212.rtfThat Dinosaur-Killing Asteroid? It Triggered Global Warming, Too 0518.rtfWhy Antarctica’s Prehistoric Forests Might Foreshadow Its Future 0418.rtfCarbon Pollution Has Ended the Era of Stable Climate 0218.rtfThawing Mosses Tell a Climate Change Tale 1117.rtfAncient Oceans Were Probably a Good Bit Cooler than Previously Thought 1017.rtfVolcanic Eruptions Triggered Global Warming 56 Million Years Ago 0817.rtfEarth Warmed between 1750 and 1880 - 0717.rtfHow Climate Change Strangled a Jurassic Ocean Ecosystem 0717.rtfEarth Is Warming 20 times Faster than Its Fastest Natural Climate Change 0617.rtfHumans Poised to Cause Earth’s Fastest Climate Change in 50 Million Years 0417.rtfDead Sea Warns of Unprecedented Drought 0317.rtf1815 Tambora Eruption Showed Disaster from Even Small Climate Changes 0117.rtfHow the World Passed a Carbon Threshold and Why It Matters 0117.rtfHistory Reveals Greenland Ice Might Melt Much Faster Than Believed 1216.rtfClimate Change May Be Escalating So Fast, It Could Be ‘Game Over’ 1116.rtfComet or Asteroid Crash May Have Heated Earth 56 Million Years Ago 1016.rtfEarth Is Hottest in 115,000 Years, due to Human-Driven Climate Change 1016.rtfEarth Is Roughly Warmest in About 100,000 Years 0916.rtf2 Million Year Record Indicates 5°C Warming from 400 ppm CO2, 9° from 560 ppm 0916.rtfHuman-Induced Climate Change Began Earlier than Previously Thought 0816.rtfClimate Data since Vikings Cast Doubt on More Wet, Dry Extremes 0416.rtfEarth Is Warming 50 x Faster than When It Comes Out of an Ice Age 0216.rtf'Medieval Warm Period' Wasn't Global or Even All That Warm, Study Says 1215.rtfClimate Change’s Toll Kept Early Dinosaurs from the Torrid Tropics 0615.rtfIce Cores Show 200-Year for North to South Pole Climate Lag 0515.rtfPETM Spike Driven by Massive Carbon Release over 2 Decades.pdfTropic Warm Pool Expanded Greatly ~4 Mya, +4°C Global - Brierly 0309.pdfWhy Climate Scientists Are Right About How Hot Earth Will Get 0215.rtfChanges to Algae in Remote Andes Lakes Warn of Climate Change 0215.rtfUnprecedented 21st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains 0215.pdfUS 'at Risk of Mega-Drought Future' 0215.rtfClimate sensitivity in a warmer world - Lea 2015.pdfHumans Polluted the Air Long Before Industrial Revolution 0215.rtfMan-Made Air Pollution Reduces Central America Rainfall 0215.rtfAncient Climate Records ‘Back Predictions' 0215.rtfPaleotemperatures and ice volume of the past 27 Myr revisited with paired Mg:Ca and 18O:16O measurements on benthic foraminifera - Billups 0202.pdfReconstruction of a continuous high-resolution CO2 record over the past 20 million years - van de Wal 1211.pdfDeep Sea Temps + c. 15 Mya - Shevenell 0208.pdfColorado Mastodon Bones Show Ancient Warmer Earth 1114.rtfScientists Probe Earth's Last Warm Phase 0414.rtfRapid Reductions in North Atlantic Deep Water During the Peak of the Last Interglacial Period 0214.rtfArctic Warmest in 120,000 Years 1113.rtf6 Centuries of Temps - Hockey Stick - Mann 0498.pdf38 Paleo-Estimates of Climate Sensitivity - Hansen 1112.jpg3 Mya vs 1750 Temps, Precip - Koenig 0112.pdfNew Antarctic Ice Core Reveals Secrets of Climate Change 0813.rtfWarming Spike - Siberian Stalagmites Show Permafrost Peril 0613.rtfGlobal Cooling as Significant as Global Warming 0613.rtf15 MY Record Finds High Warming Sensitivity to Doubled CO2 1009.rtf - Tripati. Global temperatures 4.4-6.4°C above 1951-1980 levels with global CO2 levels of 430-465 ppm. Using temperature data from previous paleoclimate studies, Tripati added CO2 readings from sediments cores at several places on the ocean bottom, analyzing ratios of two elements to estikmates CO2 lelvels.3.5 Mya, Arctic Was Forested, Far Warmer 0513.rtfPrehistoric Window on Earth's Future 0413.rtfLate 20th Century Hottest in 1400 Year Record 0413.rtfArctic Summers Warmest in 600-Year Record 0413.rtfHimalayan Adventure Foretells Climate 0313.rtfGlobal Temperatures Highest in 4K Years 0313.rtfProxy Evidence for Warming Since 1800 0213.rtfUnderwater Forest Reveals Story of a Historic Mega Drought 1212.rtfLast Time CO2 Levels Were This High 1009.rtfExtreme Global Warming Caused Largest Extinction Ever 1012.rtfHigh Arctic Summers Warmest in 1,800 Years 0912.rtfAntarctic Trees 16 MY Ago, Interglacial 0912.rtfPalm Trees Grew in Antarctica 0812.rtfCO2 Drove Warming to End Last Ice Age 0412.rtfClimate More Sensitive to CO2 0110.rtfLT CO2 Doubling Yield Twice the Warming We Thought - Paleoclimate 0908.rtfGraph of CO2 Levels over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208.pdfClimate and CO2 Over 500 M Yrs - UCSD 1208.pdfCoupling CO2 to Ice & Sea Level Over 20 Million Years - Tripati 1209.pdfEffects of 390 ppm CO2 3 Million Years Ago - Csank 0311.pdfGeologic Record & Climate Change 0105.pdfCO2 Levels and Configuration of Continents 1206.pdfCO2 & Temps to 5M Yrs Ago - Pagani 1209.pdfMaking Sense of Palaeoclimate Sensitivity - Hansen 1112.pdfPaleoclimate Implications for Human-Made Climate Change - Springer 1212.pdf7 World Region Temps Back to 1 AD.jpg
What's the Hottest Earth Has Ever Been? 0620.rtf - 3,700°F in Hadean era, not long after formation of Earth, in the aftermath of the Moon's formation. Since Snowball Earth about 800 million years ago (Mya), Earth's surface temperatures reached around 90°F repeatedly, as recently as 92 Mya. 73°F during PETM, 55 Mya. Earth's surface is currently near 60°, during an interglacial, but with much ice still at both poles. Earth has rarely been as cold as the ice ages of the past 2-3 million years. Not since long ice ages about 270 Mya.
Preliminary results from a Smithsonian Institution project led by Scott Wing and Paul Huber, show Earth's average surface temperature over the past 500 million years. For most of the time, global temperatures appear to have been too warm (red portions of line) for persistent polar ice caps. The most recent 50 million
years are an exception. Image adapted from Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History.
Global surface temperatures were generally high throughout the Paleocene and Eocene, with a particularly warm spike at the boundary between the two geological epochs around 56 million years ago. Temperatures in the distant past are inferred from proxies, in this case, oxygen isotope ratios from fossil foraminifera,
single-celled marine organisms. "Q" stands of Quaternary. Graphic produced using data from Zachos and Hansen, with help from Dr. Carrie Morrill, Director of the World Data Service for Paleoclimatology.
Coupling CO2 to Ice & Sea Level Over 20 Million Years - Tripati 1209.pdf
See figure below (part of Fig. 1 in article.)
Geologic Record & Climate Change 0105.pdf
Patterson re-makes the case (from 1991 and 1997 by Friis-Christensen and Svensmark) that warming (and cloudiness) in the past century has been tied to variations in solar output.
However, at least 38% of annual sunspot numbers in Patterson's graph 1 (after 1934) appear too low (none shown as over 85, but 17 were actually over 100, including 4 over 149, and 1 over 200).
The high correlation between solar irradiance and cosmic rays measured on Earth is to be expected, as the sun’s magnetosphere waxes and wanes, coincident with the sunspot cycle.
Low clouds generally cool Earth; they correlate reasonably well with solar irradiance and cosmic rays. However, not shown are high clouds, which generally warm Earth; they too vary with solar irradinace and cosmic rays, probably more strongly than low clouds do.
This tends to [more than?] offset the cooling effect of more low clouds when cosmic rays increase. That is, the cloud elevation difference explains why surface temperatures correlate poorly with cosmic ray flux variations. But the correlation is much better before the human emissions component overwhelmed the solar the solar variation component of surface temperature change, that is before 1990 or 2000.
Patterson's graph for the North America temperature anomaly only.
For perspective, see "∆T, CO2, SO4, Sun" under Temperature Analysis on the Data page. Three files go thru 2004, 2009, and 2012. Statistical ties to the sun grow weaker from the 2004 edition to the 2012 edition. "Sun" there was sunspot number, not sunspot cycle length.
What I would like to draw your attention to is the level of CO2 levels, as preserved in prehistoric air bubbles, from very high quality ice core records from Antarctica. When researchers first looked at the results from these cores they observed a repeating correlation between CO2 and temperature through several glacial / interglacial cycles.
However, when they began to look at higher resolution cycles they say something different. They observed that temperature would rise first, then CO2.
This correlation indicates that, as one might expect as temperatures warm, biological productivity increases, resulting in more CO2 in the atmosphere. The lag between CO2 and rising or falling CO2 levels is something like 800 years.
Also, sunspot cycle length was 12+ years from the 2001 maximum to the next maximum, probably after 2013, suggesting 0.7°C cooling, much more than we've experienced. Remember record US heat in 2012. This suggests a greatly increased role for greenhouse gases, relative to changes in solar output, epsecially after 2000.
Patterson's reasoning suggests the key role of a positive feedback loop, as permafrost thaws with warming, then adds carbon to the air. Carbon additions to the air from permafrost in recent years have been comparable to those from US vehicles. They are growing.
Paleotemperatures and ice volume of the past 27 Myr revisited with paired Mg:Ca and 18O:16O measurements on benthic foraminifera - Billups 0202.pdf - Temperatures related to ice volumes.
Fig. 1 - Records of key climate variables over the last 20 Myr.
Forcing of the model are changes in the stacked benthic 6180 record with respect to preindustrial times (a, dark blue, Zachos et al., 2008).
Output is a consistent record for the Northern Hemisphere temperature change with respect to pre-industrial conditions (b, green) and sea level (c, light blue). The reconstructed CO2 record (d, orange) is obtained by inverting the relation between NH tem- peratures and CO2 data. The ∂18O curve is smoothed in order to clarify the gradual decrease over time. Atl data are available every 0.1kyr. The thick lines represent 400-kyr running mean. Grey error bars indicate the standard deviation of model input and output. For CO2 the error bar is calculated as 400-kyr running mean, for the other records it is the standard deviation on the 0.1 kyr value as used in the model.
Paleotemperatures and ice volume of the past 27 Myr revisited with paired Mg:Ca and 18O:16O measurements on benthic foraminifera - Billups 0202.pdfRegarding solar output changes, in contrast to Tim Patterson's graph above for North America until 1990, Earth's total land surface temperature diverged strongly from solar output after 2001, except for 2013-15 and 2020-21.
Still, sunspot numbers during the satellite era, particularly their square root, correlate well with solar output.
Section Map: Heat
Page updated
Google Sites
Report abuse