Earth's Energy Imbalance

That's a lot: 1.4 Watts per square meter (W/sq m).  Stated differently, "reduced albedo [from 2015 to January 2024] is equivalent to a sudden increase of atmospheric CO2 from 420 to 530 ppm."  Prof. James Hansen, 2024.

     The figure below, from Tselioudis (2024), shows that loss of cloud cover has been greater (more blue, back and gray) in the tropical North and South Atlantic Oceans than in the tropical North and South Pacific.

     The area low (%) in cloud cover in the tropical North Pacific grew from 11% to 21% from 1984 to 2018, which is 10° of latitude.  In the tropical South Pacific, the area low in cloud cover grew from 1° north to 21°south in 1984 (22° of latitude) to 6°N to 29°S over the same span, area low in cloud cover namely by 35° of latitude.  That's 13° of growth.  That 13° was a greater gain in the tropical South Pacific than the 10° for tropical North Pacific.

    In the tropical North Atlantic, over the same time period, the area low in cloud cover grew from 19° of latitude to 41°, (again, 22° of latitude change) over 34 years,  In the tropical South Atlantic, the area low in cloud cover increased by 21 to 34° of latitude, which is also 13° of latitude over 34 years.

     The narrow equatorial zone, with thicker (and thue more reflective) clouds shrank from 12% to 5% over the 34 years, or by 7%.

     In the mid-latitudes in the north Pacific, the area of dense (brown and red) cloud cover shrank from 20% to 17%, or by 3%.  In the Pacific's southern mid-latitudes, the area of dense cloud cover stayed at 26%.

     In the mid-latitudes in the North Atlantic, the area of dense (brown and red) cloud cover shrank from 25% to 18%, for 7% shrinkage.  In the South Atlantic md-latitudes, dense cloud cover shrank by perhaps only 1% over the 35 years. 

2°C Climate Target Is ‘Dead’, Says James Hansen, Renowned Climate Scientist 0225 - After another year of albedo loss, its effect increased from 1.4 to 1.7 Watts / square meter, like an increase in CO2 from 419 ppm, to 557 ppm, now an increase of 138 ppm, no longer just 110 ppm (420 to 530, above) - from Dr. Hansen a year earlier, from Earth's albedo changes as of most of a year earlier, covering
Global Warming Has Accelerated - Hansen 0125.pdf
Is It Clouds, Shipping or a Volcano? Potential Reasons for Record Heat 1224

0.47± 0.1 W/(m^2) immediately below is out of date.

Earth's energy imbalance has tripled (2022) since then (2000).

See graph 3rd below for 2000-2022.

Heat Stored in the Earth System - Where Does the Energy Go? 0920.rtf - Abstract. - von Schuckmann, Hansen et al.  Earth gained 358 zJ over 1970-2018.  This 48-year total is about 600 times annual human energy use, or 10-20 times cumulative human energy use.

     Over this period, the oceans account for 89% (52% in the upper 700 meters, 28% 700-2,000 meters deep, and 9% below that); land (continental crust) 6%; melting ice 4%; and atmosphere 1%.  Over the shorter and most recent 2010-2018 period, these figures were 90% ocean (52-30-8%); 5% land; 3% ice; and 2% atmosphere.  The rate of heat gain was 0.87±1.2 Watts / sq meter over 2010-2018.
    There have been various comparable estimates before and since, as shown in the diagram and spreadsheet above.  0.47 in the diagram below right is for 1970-2018; 0.87 is for 2010-2018.  It has since risen, to 1.33 (see above) now, to about 700 TW over the entire globe, from 450 in some earlier years.  In order to stabilize Earth’s surface temperature (at a level substantially higher than today’s unless all excess CO2 is removed immediately), Earth’s CO2 level must be reduced from 424 ppm to 350 ppm (about 4-5°C above 1880 level).

Global Temperatures in the Thermometer Era

     The observed warming varies by latitude, as shown.  In general, the rate of warming increases toward the poles and is faster in the land (northern) hemisphere that in the water hemisphere.  The figure also compares warming in data sets from NASA, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheri Administration, and the UK Meteorological Office.  The set of 4 graphs below needs updating, especially the NASA-NOAA-UKMO one, in light of NASA’s decision in 2018 to stop reporting land surface temperatures.

The Way Forward

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Section Map: Heat