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In the diagram above, adding heat stresses systems such as rainforest, coral and ice. With enough heat, over time the systems move to a new "stable" state, with no rainforest, no coral, no ice.
As heat increases, rainforest becomes drier and trees die. As more trees die, pockets of grass open up. As still more trees die, the tipping point comes when the rainforest can no longer be sustained. The area becomes savanna, grassland with scattered trees, consistent with the new hotter and drier climate. The process in the Amazon Basin takes a few decades. We either crossed the tipping point in the past 5 years or will in the next 10. For the diagram, we are near the top, the Tipping Point. It will take some years to reach the bottom of the trough at the right.
We have already passed the tipping point for coral and will reach the nadir in just a few years, well ahead of the demise of rainforest.
Ice is already gone from a few "Alpine" glaciers (bottom of the right trough). But is likely to stay on most of East Antarctica for a few centuries (barely up the right slope of the left trough), maybe much longer if we take effective action soon enough - removing our carbon from the air and re-brightening the Earth.
Other tipping points processes happen at different temperatures and at different speeds.
2 maps of tipping points are shown below. They mosty overlap, but there are a few differences. They show the temperatures at which the tipping points are expected to be activated.
Most scientific observers say that tropical coral reefs worldwide are already mostly dead and may be headed for extinction "soon". Projections are that 2/3 of the Amazon rainforest ia well on its way to becoming grasslands, with a tipping point at 18-20% loss in area covered. Rainforest coverage loss so far has been 15-20%. Rainforest is expected to say in the (north)western Amazon Basin when the east turns into savanna.
Tipping Points That Worry Scientists the Most 0725.rtfClimate Tipping Points – Damages and Action to Forestall Damages 0625.rtfWe Are Perilously Close to Point of No Return on Amazon Rainforest’s Future 0625.rtfCrossing Antarctic Tipping Points Is More Likely Each Day We Burn Fossil Fuels 0625.rtf‘This Is a Fight for Life’ - Tipping Points, Catastrophes, and Cost Under-Estimates 0625.rtfTrying to Reverse Climate Change Alone Won’t Save Us, due to Tipping Points 1024.rtfEarth May Have Breached 7 of 9 Planetary Boundaries 0924.rtfTrying to Reverse Climate Change Alone Won’t Save Us, due to Tipping Points 1024.rtfAfter Climate Tipping Points, Change Will Come Slowly, Then All at Once 0424World on Brink of 5 ‘Disastrous’ Climate Tipping Points 0922.rtf
Failure to Slow Warming Will Set Off Climate ‘Tipping Points’ 0922.rtfClimate Dominoes - Spratt & Dunlop 0522.pdf - 23 ppThe Costs of Climate Tipping Points & How They Could Compound One Another 0821.rtf‘Collapse of Civilization is the Most Likely Outcome’ - Top Climate Scientists 0620.rtf - A “global tipping cascade” could take us to a less habitable “Hothouse Earth” climate. 9 of 15 identified tipping points have been activated.
Climate Tipping Points — Too Risky to Bet Against 1119.rtf - Rahmsdorf, Steffens, Schellnhuber, Rockström, et al.
9 active tipping points - Tipping points are probably being passed well before 2°C warming. This requires an emergency response. We face a series of cascading, interactive tipping points, starting from Arctic sea ice loss. Changes in (heat) forcing are much higher than ever before. We may be heading to CO2 levels last seen 50+ million years ago, with temperatures 12-14°C warmer than 1880’s.
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